618ad723e3
Fill quality is MALKHUT's core aim. Wired end-to-end: 1. FillQuality state (state.py): - slippage_bps, price_improvement_bps, levels_consumed - is_maker_fill, rolling_fill_rate, post_fill_adverse_bps - fill_value_score: composite metric for optimization - Added to MarketWorldState.fill_quality field 2. HftBacktestCWM.transition() (hft_cwm.py): - _compute_fill_quality() computes all metrics per transition - Fill quality now tracked for every CWM step - Empty book guards added for safety 3. MinimalCryptoLOBCWM.transition() (core.py): - Same fill quality computation for deterministic fallback - Empty book guards added 4. Reward function (hft_cwm.py): - fill_quality_reward = w_fill_probability * fill_value_score (PRIMARY) - Bonus for maker fills that improve price - Penalty for adverse selection after fill - Base reward (PnL, adverse selection, fees) preserved 5. PerformanceMatrix (selector.py): - RegimeStrategyScore: 4 new fill quality fields - record(): accepts fill_rate, slippage, price_improvement, fill_value_score - EMA updates for all fill quality metrics 6. EpisodeResult (cma_trainer.py): - avg_fill_value_score, avg_price_improvement_bps, avg_post_fill_adverse_bps - Accumulated per-step during _run_episode - Recorded to PerformanceMatrix in evaluate_candidate All 1379+ tests green.
1486 lines
65 KiB
Python
1486 lines
65 KiB
Python
"""
|
||
CMA-ES outer training loop — wraps pycma for parameter optimisation.
|
||
|
||
Full implementation:
|
||
- Real multi-step episodes through CWM
|
||
- Trajectory metrics (PnL, drawdown, fill ratio, adverse selection)
|
||
- Diversity-preserving self-play pool eviction
|
||
- Scenario factory for diversified test suites
|
||
- Bootstrap CI for candidate promotion
|
||
- Robust scoring (tail quantile, not just mean)
|
||
|
||
The live path MUST NEVER run CMA-ES. This trains policies offline/shadow/scheduled.
|
||
"""
|
||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||
|
||
import math
|
||
import random
|
||
import time
|
||
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
|
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from typing import Any, Callable, List, Mapping, Optional, Sequence, Tuple
|
||
|
||
from malkhut.state import (
|
||
AccountState, ExecutionIntent, FulfilmentPolicyParams, IntentKind,
|
||
MarketWorldState, Mode, OrderBookState, PositionState, PriceLevel,
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||
Side, VenueRules,
|
||
)
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||
from malkhut.actions import (
|
||
ActionKind, CounterpartyAction, FulfilmentAction, PlannedPolicy,
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||
)
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from malkhut.cwm.core import MinimalCryptoLOBCWM, _clip_lots, _round_tick
|
||
from malkhut.planner.sm_mcts import DecoupledUCBPlanner
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from malkhut.counterparties import (
|
||
CounterpartyPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology,
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||
)
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||
from malkhut.features import DefaultFeatureExtractor
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||
from malkhut.storage.ch_store import MalkhutCHStore
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||
|
||
from malkhut.state import (
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DEFAULT_POLICY_PROMOTION_MIN_EDGE_BPS,
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||
DEFAULT_SELF_PLAY_POOL_MAX,
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||
TAIL_QUANTILE,
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||
)
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||
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||
|
||
# ==============================================================================
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# CMA Parameter Codec
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||
# ==============================================================================
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||
|
||
@dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True)
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||
class ParamSpec:
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name: str
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||
kind: str # "float", "int", "bool"
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low: float
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||
high: float
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||
|
||
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class CMAParameterCodec:
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"""
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Encode/decode FulfilmentPolicyParams to/from real-valued CMA-ES vectors.
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CMA sees R^n; decode() clips/rounds/maps to actual parameter domain.
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"""
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||
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SPECS: Tuple[ParamSpec, ...] = (
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ParamSpec("ucb_c", "float", 0.2, 3.0),
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ParamSpec("max_depth", "int", 1, 5),
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ParamSpec("rollout_depth", "int", 1, 8),
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||
ParamSpec("root_temperature", "float", 0.05, 2.0),
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||
ParamSpec("min_root_entropy", "float", 0.0, 1.5),
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||
ParamSpec("passive_ttl_ms", "int", 50, 2000),
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||
ParamSpec("aggressive_ttl_ms", "int", 10, 500),
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||
ParamSpec("maker_edge_min_bps", "float", -2.0, 10.0),
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||
ParamSpec("cross_spread_edge_min_bps", "float", 0.0, 30.0),
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||
ParamSpec("adverse_toxicity_cancel_threshold", "float", 0.05, 0.95),
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||
ParamSpec("queue_churn_cancel_threshold", "float", 0.05, 0.95),
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||
ParamSpec("mae_tail_cut_bps", "float", 10.0, 250.0),
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||
ParamSpec("mfe_giveback_cut_fraction", "float", 0.05, 0.95),
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||
ParamSpec("max_time_in_loss_s", "float", 5.0, 1800.0),
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||
ParamSpec("failed_recovery_cut_count", "int", 1, 12),
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||
ParamSpec("recovery_velocity_min_bps_per_s", "float", -5.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_expected_pnl", "float", 0.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_fill_probability", "float", 0.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_adverse_selection", "float", 0.0, 10.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_queue_priority", "float", 0.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_inventory_risk", "float", 0.0, 10.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_tail_loss", "float", 0.0, 20.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_fee_quality", "float", 0.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_time_decay", "float", 0.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("w_policy_entropy", "float", 0.0, 5.0),
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||
ParamSpec("robust_tail_weight", "float", 0.0, 10.0),
|
||
ParamSpec("toxic_counterparty_weight", "float", 0.0, 10.0),
|
||
ParamSpec("low_liquidity_weight", "float", 0.0, 10.0),
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ParamSpec("latency_stress_weight", "float", 0.0, 10.0),
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||
)
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||
|
||
def initial_vector(self, baseline: FulfilmentPolicyParams) -> list[float]:
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return [(spec.low + spec.high) / 2.0 for spec in self.SPECS]
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||
|
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def bounds(self) -> Tuple[list[float], list[float]]:
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||
lows = [s.low for s in self.SPECS]
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||
highs = [s.high for s in self.SPECS]
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||
return lows, highs
|
||
|
||
def decode(self, x: Sequence[float], version: str) -> FulfilmentPolicyParams:
|
||
vals = {}
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for i, spec in enumerate(self.SPECS):
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raw = max(spec.low, min(spec.high, x[i]))
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if spec.kind == "int":
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raw = int(round(raw))
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vals[spec.name] = raw
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return FulfilmentPolicyParams(
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version=version,
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ucb_c=vals.get("ucb_c", 1.414),
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max_sims=256,
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max_depth=vals.get("max_depth", 3),
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rollout_depth=vals.get("rollout_depth", 3),
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root_temperature=vals.get("root_temperature", 0.5),
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||
min_root_entropy=vals.get("min_root_entropy", 0.25),
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quote_offsets_ticks=(0, 1, 2),
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||
quote_size_fractions=(0.10, 0.25, 0.50),
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passive_ttl_ms=vals.get("passive_ttl_ms", 200),
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||
aggressive_ttl_ms=vals.get("aggressive_ttl_ms", 50),
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maker_edge_min_bps=vals.get("maker_edge_min_bps", 0.5),
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||
cross_spread_edge_min_bps=vals.get("cross_spread_edge_min_bps", 5.0),
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||
adverse_toxicity_cancel_threshold=vals.get("adverse_toxicity_cancel_threshold", 0.5),
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queue_churn_cancel_threshold=vals.get("queue_churn_cancel_threshold", 0.5),
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mae_tail_cut_bps=vals.get("mae_tail_cut_bps", 50.0),
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mfe_giveback_cut_fraction=vals.get("mfe_giveback_cut_fraction", 0.5),
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||
max_time_in_loss_s=vals.get("max_time_in_loss_s", 300.0),
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failed_recovery_cut_count=vals.get("failed_recovery_cut_count", 3),
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recovery_velocity_min_bps_per_s=vals.get("recovery_velocity_min_bps_per_s", 0.0),
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max_symbol_notional_fraction=0.20,
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max_single_order_notional_fraction=0.05,
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reduce_when_global_up_fraction=0.30,
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session_profit_lock_fraction=0.02,
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w_expected_pnl=vals.get("w_expected_pnl", 1.0),
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||
w_fill_probability=vals.get("w_fill_probability", 0.5),
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||
w_adverse_selection=vals.get("w_adverse_selection", 2.0),
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w_queue_priority=vals.get("w_queue_priority", 0.5),
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||
w_inventory_risk=vals.get("w_inventory_risk", 1.5),
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||
w_tail_loss=vals.get("w_tail_loss", 5.0),
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||
w_fee_quality=vals.get("w_fee_quality", 0.5),
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||
w_time_decay=vals.get("w_time_decay", 0.3),
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||
w_policy_entropy=vals.get("w_policy_entropy", 0.5),
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robust_tail_weight=vals.get("robust_tail_weight", 2.0),
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toxic_counterparty_weight=vals.get("toxic_counterparty_weight", 3.0),
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low_liquidity_weight=vals.get("low_liquidity_weight", 2.0),
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latency_stress_weight=vals.get("latency_stress_weight", 1.0),
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)
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||
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||
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# ==============================================================================
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||
# Policy Snapshot & Pool
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||
# ==============================================================================
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||
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@dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True)
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class PolicySnapshot:
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params: FulfilmentPolicyParams
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score: float
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created_ts_ns: int
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evaluation_summary: Mapping[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
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performance_vector: Tuple[float, ...] = () # for diversity eviction
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||
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||
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class SelfPlayPool:
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||
"""
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||
Archive of hard opponents / prior strong candidates.
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||
Diversity-preserving eviction: keeps policies that are both high-scoring
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||
AND diverse (different performance vectors). Redundant low-scoring
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policies are evicted first.
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"""
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||
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def __init__(self, max_size: int = DEFAULT_SELF_PLAY_POOL_MAX) -> None:
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||
self.max_size = max_size
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||
self.snapshots: list[PolicySnapshot] = []
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||
|
||
def policies(self) -> Tuple[FulfilmentPolicyParams, ...]:
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||
return tuple(s.params for s in self.snapshots)
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||
|
||
def snapshots_list(self) -> list[PolicySnapshot]:
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||
return list(self.snapshots)
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||
|
||
def maybe_add(self, snapshot: PolicySnapshot) -> None:
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||
self.snapshots.append(snapshot)
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self._evict_if_needed()
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||
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||
def _evict_if_needed(self) -> None:
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if len(self.snapshots) <= self.max_size:
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||
return
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||
|
||
# Diversity-preserving eviction:
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||
# 1. Always keep the greedy baseline (highest score)
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||
# 2. Keep policies with diverse performance vectors
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||
# 3. Evict redundant low-scoring policies first
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||
|
||
if len(self.snapshots) <= 1:
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||
return
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||
|
||
# Sort by score descending
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||
self.snapshots.sort(key=lambda s: s.score, reverse=True)
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||
|
||
# Keep the best one always
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||
kept = [self.snapshots[0]]
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||
|
||
# For the rest, keep diverse ones
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||
remaining = self.snapshots[1:]
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for snap in remaining:
|
||
if len(kept) >= self.max_size:
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||
break
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||
# Check if this policy is diverse enough from already-kept ones
|
||
if self._is_diverse(snap, kept):
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||
kept.append(snap)
|
||
|
||
# If we still have room, add remaining by score
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||
for snap in remaining:
|
||
if len(kept) >= self.max_size:
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break
|
||
if snap not in kept:
|
||
kept.append(snap)
|
||
|
||
self.snapshots = kept[:self.max_size]
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||
|
||
def _is_diverse(self, candidate: PolicySnapshot, existing: list[PolicySnapshot]) -> bool:
|
||
"""Check if candidate has sufficiently different performance vector."""
|
||
if not candidate.performance_vector or not existing:
|
||
return True
|
||
|
||
for e in existing:
|
||
if not e.performance_vector:
|
||
continue
|
||
# Cosine similarity
|
||
sim = self._cosine_similarity(candidate.performance_vector, e.performance_vector)
|
||
if sim > 0.95: # too similar
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||
return False
|
||
return True
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def _cosine_similarity(a: Tuple[float, ...], b: Tuple[float, ...]) -> float:
|
||
if len(a) != len(b) or len(a) == 0:
|
||
return 0.0
|
||
dot = sum(x * y for x, y in zip(a, b))
|
||
norm_a = math.sqrt(sum(x * x for x in a))
|
||
norm_b = math.sqrt(sum(x * x for x in b))
|
||
if norm_a < 1e-12 or norm_b < 1e-12:
|
||
return 0.0
|
||
return dot / (norm_a * norm_b)
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
# Episode Result & Metrics
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
|
||
@dataclass
|
||
class EpisodeResult:
|
||
scenario_id: str
|
||
policy_version: str
|
||
seed: int
|
||
steps: int = 0
|
||
pnl_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
realized_pnl: float = 0.0
|
||
max_drawdown_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
peak_pnl_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
tail_loss_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
fill_count: int = 0
|
||
fill_ratio: float = 0.0
|
||
maker_fill_count: int = 0
|
||
taker_fill_count: int = 0
|
||
adverse_fill_count: int = 0
|
||
avg_slippage_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
cancel_count: int = 0
|
||
order_count: int = 0
|
||
noop_count: int = 0
|
||
inventory_time: float = 0.0
|
||
liquidation_near_miss_count: int = 0
|
||
policy_entropy_avg: float = 0.0
|
||
final_equity: float = 0.0
|
||
max_position_qty: float = 0.0
|
||
diagnostics: Mapping[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
|
||
# Fill quality (PRIMARY metrics)
|
||
avg_fill_value_score: float = 0.0
|
||
avg_price_improvement_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
avg_post_fill_adverse_bps: float = 0.0
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
# Scenario Factory
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
|
||
@dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True)
|
||
class Scenario:
|
||
scenario_id: str
|
||
symbol: str
|
||
initial_state: MarketWorldState
|
||
counterparties: Tuple[CounterpartyPolicy, ...]
|
||
max_steps: int = 50
|
||
tags: Tuple[str, ...] = ()
|
||
venue: str = "bingx" # exchange this scenario simulates (default: BingX for backward compat)
|
||
|
||
|
||
class ScenarioFactory:
|
||
"""
|
||
Build diversified scenario suites for adversarial evaluation.
|
||
|
||
Uses AssetBehavior profiles for realistic per-asset prices, depth, spread,
|
||
and counterparty ecology. Each asset behaves like its real-world self.
|
||
|
||
Supports:
|
||
- build_suite(symbols=...) — specific assets
|
||
- build_suite_for_class(sector=...) — all assets in a sector
|
||
- build_suite_for_role(role=...) — all assets with a token role
|
||
- build_suite_for_label组合 — any combination of filters
|
||
|
||
30 scenario types × multiple assets = comprehensive evaluation.
|
||
"""
|
||
|
||
def __init__(self, counterparties: Optional[Tuple[CounterpartyPolicy, ...]] = None,
|
||
exchange_id: str = "bingx") -> None:
|
||
self.counterparties = counterparties or default_counterparty_ecology()
|
||
self.exchange_id = exchange_id
|
||
|
||
# --- Behavior-driven helpers ---
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def _ensure_behavior(symbol: str):
|
||
"""Auto-compile asset if not already registered. Rate-limited, cached."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_behavior import get_behavior
|
||
if get_behavior(symbol) is not None:
|
||
return
|
||
try:
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_compiler import AssetCompiler
|
||
compiler = AssetCompiler()
|
||
compiler.compile_and_register(symbol)
|
||
except Exception:
|
||
pass # gracefully fall back to defaults
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def _get_behavior(symbol: str):
|
||
"""Get AssetBehavior for symbol, or None."""
|
||
ScenarioFactory._ensure_behavior(symbol)
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_behavior import get_behavior
|
||
return get_behavior(symbol)
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def _behavior_mid(symbol: str) -> float:
|
||
"""Get realistic mid-price from behavior profile, auto-compiling if needed."""
|
||
ScenarioFactory._ensure_behavior(symbol)
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_behavior import get_behavior
|
||
b = get_behavior(symbol)
|
||
if b and b.reference_price > 0:
|
||
return b.reference_price
|
||
_PRICES = {
|
||
"BTCUSDT": 64000.0, "ETHUSDT": 1800.0, "SOLUSDT": 80.0,
|
||
"DOGEUSDT": 0.07, "ADAUSDT": 0.17, "AVAXUSDT": 7.0,
|
||
"UNIUSDT": 3.6, "LINKUSDT": 8.0, "BNBUSDT": 575.0,
|
||
"MATICUSDT": 0.5, "AAVEUSDT": 100.0, "DOTUSDT": 6.0,
|
||
"ATOMUSDT": 8.0,
|
||
}
|
||
return _PRICES.get(symbol, 50000.0)
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def _behavior_state(symbol: str, spread_mult: float = 1.0,
|
||
depth_fraction: float = 1.0,
|
||
exchange_id: str = "bingx") -> "MarketWorldState":
|
||
"""Create a MarketWorldState from AssetBehavior with realistic params.
|
||
|
||
Auto-compiles unknown assets from Binance API if needed.
|
||
"""
|
||
b = ScenarioFactory._get_behavior(symbol)
|
||
mid = ScenarioFactory._behavior_mid(symbol)
|
||
if b:
|
||
spread = b.spread.normal_bps * spread_mult
|
||
half_spread = mid * spread / 10000 / 2
|
||
bid = mid - half_spread
|
||
ask = mid + half_spread
|
||
base_depth_usd = b.depth.amplitude_usd * depth_fraction
|
||
bid_qty = max(base_depth_usd / mid, b.flow.median_order_usd / mid)
|
||
ask_qty = bid_qty
|
||
else:
|
||
bid, ask = 49999.5, 50000.5
|
||
bid_qty, ask_qty = 1.0, 1.0
|
||
return ScenarioFactory._make_state(symbol, bid=bid, ask=ask,
|
||
bid_qty=bid_qty, ask_qty=ask_qty,
|
||
exchange_id=exchange_id)
|
||
|
||
def build_suite(
|
||
self,
|
||
symbols: Sequence[str] = ("BTCUSDT",),
|
||
steps_per_scenario: int = 20,
|
||
seed: int = 42,
|
||
) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
rng = random.Random(seed)
|
||
scenarios: list[Scenario] = []
|
||
|
||
for symbol in symbols:
|
||
# 30 diverse scenarios per symbol — comprehensive market microstructure
|
||
scenarios.append(self._normal_market(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._thin_book(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 1))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._wide_spread(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 2))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._toxic_stress(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 3))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._chop_market(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 4))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._flash_crash(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 5))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._liquidity_vacuum(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 6))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._multi_toxic(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 7))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._trending(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 8))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._mean_reverting(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 9))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._weekend_thin(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 10))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._funding_shock(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 11))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._liquidation_cascade(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 12))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._cross_exchange_divergence(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 13))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._stale_quote_hunt(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 14))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._spread_tightening(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 15))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._stop_hunting(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 16))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._whale_order(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 17))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._book_imbalance_spike(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 18))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._market_maker_withdrawal(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 19))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._quoting_wars(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 20))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._cross_venue_arb(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 21))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._pump_and_dump(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 22))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._dark_pool_iceberg(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 23))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._margin_call_cascade(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 24))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._oracle_manipulation(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 25))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._whale_vs_retail(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 26))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._cross_exchange_arb_stress(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 27))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._order_book_decay(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 28))
|
||
scenarios.append(self._microstructure_breakdown(symbol, steps_per_scenario, seed + 29))
|
||
|
||
return tuple(scenarios)
|
||
|
||
def _normal_market(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"normal_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=1.0, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("normal", "liquid"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _thin_book(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"thin_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.1, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("thin", "illiquid"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _wide_spread(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"wide_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=100.0, depth_fraction=0.5, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("wide", "volatile"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _toxic_stress(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"toxic_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=2.0, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3),),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("toxic", "adverse_selection"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _chop_market(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"chop_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=0.5, depth_fraction=0.2, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("chop", "noise"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _flash_crash(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"flash_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=3.0, depth_fraction=0.05, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("flash_crash", "thin_book"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _liquidity_vacuum(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"vacuum_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=5.0, depth_fraction=0.01, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.2),),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("liquidity_vacuum", "extreme"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _multi_toxic(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, LatencyArbPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"multi_toxic_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3),
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4),
|
||
LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=0.3),
|
||
),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("multi_toxic", "adverse"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _trending(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"trend_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=0.8, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("trending", "momentum"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _mean_reverting(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"revert_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=20.0, depth_fraction=0.6, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("mean_reverting", "wide_spread"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _weekend_thin(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Weekend/low-participation: very thin book, wide spread, low volume."""
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"weekend_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=5.0, depth_fraction=0.05, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(self.counterparties[3],),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("weekend", "low_participation", "thin"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _funding_shock(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Funding rate spike causes mass deleveraging."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import LiquidationFlowPolicy
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"funding_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(LiquidationFlowPolicy(trigger_bps=30.0), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("funding_shock", "deleveraging"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _liquidation_cascade(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Liquidation cascade: price drops → liquidations → more drops."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import LiquidationFlowPolicy
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"cascade_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.2, depth_fraction=0.2, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(
|
||
LiquidationFlowPolicy(trigger_bps=40.0),
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3),
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4),
|
||
),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("cascade", "liquidation", "adverse"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _cross_exchange_divergence(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""BTC drops while alts diverge — correlation breaks down."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology
|
||
eco = default_counterparty_ecology()
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"diverge_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3), self.counterparties[0]),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("divergence", "correlation_breakdown"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _stale_quote_hunt(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Stale quotes get attacked by latency arbitrage."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import LatencyArbPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"stale_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=0.6, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy(), LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("stale_quote", "latency_arb"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _inventory_squeeze(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Market maker gets inventory-squeezed — forced to widen quotes."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import InventoryMarketMakerPolicy
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"squeeze_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(InventoryMarketMakerPolicy(max_inventory=0.05), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("squeeze", "inventory_risk"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _news_spike(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Sudden news causes massive price move with thin book."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, default_counterparty_ecology
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"news_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=10.0, depth_fraction=0.03, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.2), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("news_spike", "gap", "thin"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _spread_tightening(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Spread narrows as market makers compete after news."""
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"tighten_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=0.3, depth_fraction=1.0, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("spread_tightening", "competition"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _stop_hunting(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Price moves to trigger stop losses — common in crypto."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"stop_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.2, depth_fraction=0.2, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.5)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("stop_hunting", "manipulation"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _whale_order(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Large order consumes significant book depth."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"whale_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.2),),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("whale", "large_order", "impact"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _book_imbalance_spike(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Sudden shift in bid/ask ratio — order flow imbalance."""
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"imbalance_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=0.8, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("imbalance", "order_flow", "asymmetry"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _market_maker_withdrawal(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Market makers pull quotes during stress — liquidity dries up."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import PassiveMakerPolicy, ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"withdraw_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.3, depth_fraction=0.15, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=0.2), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("withdrawal", "liquidity_dry", "stress"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _quoting_wars(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Multiple market makers compete — spread tightens then widens."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import PassiveMakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"wars_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=0.8, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(
|
||
PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=0.8),
|
||
PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=0.7),
|
||
PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=0.6),
|
||
),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("quoting_wars", "competition", "spread_dynamics"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _cross_venue_arb(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Price differences between exchanges — arbitrage opportunity."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import LatencyArbPolicy, ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"arb_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=0.5, depth_fraction=0.5, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=0.3), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("arbitrage", "cross_venue", "price_discovery"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _order_flow_imbalance(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Sudden shift in order flow direction — institutional flow."""
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"flow_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=0.5, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=self.counterparties,
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("order_flow", "institutional", "asymmetry"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _volatility_regime_change(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Volatility regime change — low vol to high vol transition."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"volregime_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=0.1, depth_fraction=0.7, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4),),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("volatility_regime", "transition", "adaptive"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _pump_and_dump(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Coordinated pump then dump — common in small-cap crypto."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"pump_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.2, depth_fraction=0.2, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.2), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("pump_dump", "manipulation", "coordinated"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _dark_pool_iceberg(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Large hidden order slowly consumes book — iceberg order."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"iceberg_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3),),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("iceberg", "hidden_order", "gradual_impact"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _margin_call_cascade(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Margin calls trigger forced selling → more margin calls."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import LiquidationFlowPolicy
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"margin_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.3, depth_fraction=0.15, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(
|
||
LiquidationFlowPolicy(trigger_bps=30.0),
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3),
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4),
|
||
),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("margin_call", "cascade", "forced_selling"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _oracle_manipulation(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Price oracle manipulation — flash loan + DEX manipulation."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"oracle_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=3.0, depth_fraction=0.05, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.2), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("oracle_manipulation", "flash_loan", "dex"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _whale_vs_retail(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Large institutional order vs many small retail orders."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, NoiseTraderPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"whale_retail_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.5, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3), NoiseTraderPolicy()),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("whale_vs_retail", "institutional", "retail"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _cross_exchange_arb_stress(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Multiple exchanges show different prices — arbitrage stress."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import LatencyArbPolicy, ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"arb_stress_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=0.8, depth_fraction=0.3, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=0.2), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("cross_exchange", "arb_stress", "price_discovery"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _order_book_decay(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Order book gradually thins as market makers withdraw."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import PassiveMakerPolicy, ToxicTakerPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"decay_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=1.0, depth_fraction=0.7, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=0.1), ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.4)),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("decay", "liquidity_withdrawal", "gradual"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _microstructure_breakdown(self, symbol: str, steps: int, seed: int) -> Scenario:
|
||
"""Multiple microstructure failures simultaneously."""
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import LiquidationFlowPolicy, StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy
|
||
from malkhut.counterparties import ToxicTakerPolicy, LatencyArbPolicy
|
||
return Scenario(
|
||
scenario_id=f"breakdown_{symbol}_{seed}",
|
||
symbol=symbol,
|
||
initial_state=self._behavior_state(symbol, spread_mult=5.0, depth_fraction=0.15, exchange_id=self.exchange_id),
|
||
counterparties=(
|
||
ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=0.3),
|
||
LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=0.3),
|
||
LiquidationFlowPolicy(trigger_bps=40.0),
|
||
),
|
||
max_steps=steps,
|
||
tags=("breakdown", "multi_failure", "stress"),
|
||
venue=self.exchange_id,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
# --- Convenience query interfaces ---
|
||
|
||
def build_suite_for_sector(self, sector: Sector, steps_per_scenario: int = 20,
|
||
seed: int = 42) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Build scenarios for all assets in a given sector."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_classification import get_assets_by_sector
|
||
profiles = get_assets_by_sector(sector)
|
||
symbols = tuple(p.symbol for p in profiles)
|
||
return self.build_suite(symbols=symbols, steps_per_scenario=steps_per_scenario, seed=seed)
|
||
|
||
def build_suite_for_role(self, role: TokenRole, steps_per_scenario: int = 20,
|
||
seed: int = 42) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Build scenarios for all assets with a given token role."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_classification import get_assets_by_token_role
|
||
profiles = get_assets_by_token_role(role)
|
||
symbols = tuple(p.symbol for p in profiles)
|
||
return self.build_suite(symbols=symbols, steps_per_scenario=steps_per_scenario, seed=seed)
|
||
|
||
def build_suite_for_template(self, template_name: str, steps_per_scenario: int = 20,
|
||
seed: int = 42) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Build scenarios for all assets using a given behavior template."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_behavior import get_behaviors_by_template
|
||
behaviors = get_behaviors_by_template(template_name)
|
||
symbols = tuple(b.symbol for b in behaviors)
|
||
return self.build_suite(symbols=symbols, steps_per_scenario=steps_per_scenario, seed=seed)
|
||
|
||
def build_suite_for_volatility(self, min_ann: float = 0.0, max_ann: float = 500.0,
|
||
steps_per_scenario: int = 20, seed: int = 42) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Build scenarios for assets within an annualized volatility range."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_behavior import get_behaviors_by_volatility_band
|
||
behaviors = get_behaviors_by_volatility_band(min_ann, max_ann)
|
||
symbols = tuple(b.symbol for b in behaviors)
|
||
return self.build_suite(symbols=symbols, steps_per_scenario=steps_per_scenario, seed=seed)
|
||
|
||
def build_suite_for_labels(self, sectors: Optional[Sequence[Sector]] = None,
|
||
roles: Optional[Sequence[TokenRole]] = None,
|
||
steps_per_scenario: int = 20,
|
||
seed: int = 42) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Build scenarios for assets matching ANY of the given labels (union).
|
||
|
||
For any symbol in asset_classification but not yet in asset_behavior,
|
||
auto-compiles from Binance API before building scenarios."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_classification import get_assets_by_sector, get_assets_by_token_role
|
||
symbols_set: set = set()
|
||
if sectors:
|
||
for s in sectors:
|
||
for p in get_assets_by_sector(s):
|
||
symbols_set.add(p.symbol)
|
||
if roles:
|
||
for r in roles:
|
||
for p in get_assets_by_token_role(r):
|
||
symbols_set.add(p.symbol)
|
||
if not symbols_set:
|
||
symbols_set = set(ASSET_PROFILES.keys())
|
||
for sym in symbols_set:
|
||
ScenarioFactory._ensure_behavior(sym)
|
||
return self.build_suite(symbols=tuple(symbols_set), steps_per_scenario=steps_per_scenario, seed=seed)
|
||
|
||
def build_suite_for_symbols(self, symbols: Sequence[str], steps_per_scenario: int = 20,
|
||
seed: int = 42) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Build scenarios for arbitrary symbols. Auto-compiles unknown assets from Binance API."""
|
||
for sym in symbols:
|
||
ScenarioFactory._ensure_behavior(sym)
|
||
return self.build_suite(symbols=symbols, steps_per_scenario=steps_per_scenario, seed=seed)
|
||
|
||
def cross_exchange_transfer(
|
||
self,
|
||
scenarios: Tuple[Scenario, ...],
|
||
target_exchange: str,
|
||
) -> Tuple[Scenario, ...]:
|
||
"""Re-tag scenarios for a different exchange.
|
||
|
||
Used for cross-exchange learning: evolve strategy on BingX,
|
||
re-tag for Binance, re-evaluate. Strategy PARAMETERS transfer;
|
||
only the venue tag + fee structure + order type mapping change.
|
||
"""
|
||
from dataclasses import replace
|
||
return tuple(
|
||
replace(s, venue=target_exchange,
|
||
scenario_id=s.scenario_id.replace("_bingx_", f"_{target_exchange}_"))
|
||
if "_bingx_" in s.scenario_id or s.venue == "bingx"
|
||
else replace(s, venue=target_exchange)
|
||
for s in scenarios
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def _make_state(symbol: str, bid: float, ask: float, bid_qty: float, ask_qty: float,
|
||
exchange_id: str = "bingx") -> MarketWorldState:
|
||
"""Create a market state using asset classification for realistic parameters."""
|
||
from malkhut.training.asset_classification import get_asset_profile, ASSET_PROFILES
|
||
|
||
profile = get_asset_profile(symbol)
|
||
if profile:
|
||
venue = VenueRules(
|
||
exchange=exchange_id, symbol=symbol,
|
||
tick_size=profile.tick_size, lot_size=profile.lot_size,
|
||
min_qty=profile.lot_size, min_notional=5.0,
|
||
maker_fee_bps=profile.maker_fee_bps, taker_fee_bps=profile.taker_fee_bps,
|
||
post_only_supported=True, reduce_only_supported=True,
|
||
max_orders_per_second=100, max_cancels_per_minute=120,
|
||
)
|
||
else:
|
||
venue = VenueRules(
|
||
exchange=exchange_id, symbol=symbol, tick_size=0.1, lot_size=0.001,
|
||
min_qty=0.001, min_notional=5.0, maker_fee_bps=-0.2, taker_fee_bps=0.5,
|
||
post_only_supported=True, reduce_only_supported=True,
|
||
max_orders_per_second=100, max_cancels_per_minute=120,
|
||
)
|
||
book = OrderBookState(
|
||
ts_ns=1_000_000_000, symbol=symbol,
|
||
bids=(PriceLevel(bid, bid_qty),),
|
||
asks=(PriceLevel(ask, ask_qty),),
|
||
)
|
||
account = AccountState(
|
||
ts_ns=1_000_000_000, equity=10000.0, wallet_balance=10000.0,
|
||
available_balance=10000.0, margin_used=0.0, total_notional=0.0,
|
||
)
|
||
return MarketWorldState(
|
||
ts_ns=1_000_000_000, mode=Mode.ENDOGENOUS_AGENT_SIM,
|
||
venue=venue, book=book, account=account,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
# Policy Evaluator — real multi-step episodes
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
|
||
class PolicyEvaluator:
|
||
"""
|
||
Evaluates a candidate policy against scenarios and self-play pool.
|
||
|
||
Runs real multi-step episodes through the CWM:
|
||
plan → risk gate → CWM transition → collect metrics → loop
|
||
"""
|
||
|
||
def __init__(
|
||
self,
|
||
cwm_factory: Callable[[], CodeWorldModel],
|
||
counterparties: Optional[Tuple[CounterpartyPolicy, ...]] = None,
|
||
scoring_mode: str = "fast",
|
||
) -> None:
|
||
self.cwm_factory = cwm_factory
|
||
self.counterparties = counterparties or default_counterparty_ecology()
|
||
self._scoring_mode = scoring_mode
|
||
self._adv_baseline = 0.0
|
||
self._adv_n_seen = 0
|
||
|
||
def evaluate_candidate(
|
||
self,
|
||
params: FulfilmentPolicyParams,
|
||
scenarios: Sequence[Scenario],
|
||
rng_seed: int = 0,
|
||
planner_type: str = "sm_mcts",
|
||
record_to_matrix: bool = False,
|
||
matrix: Optional[Any] = None,
|
||
workers: int = 0,
|
||
use_ray: bool = False,
|
||
) -> Tuple[float, list[EpisodeResult]]:
|
||
if use_ray and workers > 1 and len(scenarios) > 1:
|
||
from malkhut.training.ray_eval import RayEpisodeRunner
|
||
runner = RayEpisodeRunner(workers=workers)
|
||
results = runner.run_episodes(params, scenarios, rng_seed, planner_type)
|
||
elif workers > 1 and len(scenarios) > 1:
|
||
from malkhut.training.parallel_eval import ParallelEpisodeRunner
|
||
runner = ParallelEpisodeRunner(workers=workers)
|
||
results = runner.run_episodes(params, scenarios, rng_seed, planner_type)
|
||
else:
|
||
results = []
|
||
for scenario in scenarios:
|
||
result = self._run_episode(params, scenario, rng_seed, planner_type)
|
||
results.append(result)
|
||
# TIE-IN: Record strategy × regime performance
|
||
if record_to_matrix and matrix is not None:
|
||
tags = scenario.tags
|
||
venue_tag = scenario.venue
|
||
for tag in tags:
|
||
matrix.record(
|
||
strategy_id=params.version,
|
||
regime=tag,
|
||
score=result.pnl_bps,
|
||
pnl_bps=result.pnl_bps,
|
||
drawdown_bps=result.max_drawdown_bps,
|
||
adverse_fill_ratio=result.adverse_fill_count / max(result.order_count, 1),
|
||
venue=venue_tag,
|
||
fill_rate=result.fill_ratio,
|
||
slippage_bps=result.avg_slippage_bps,
|
||
price_improvement_bps=result.avg_price_improvement_bps,
|
||
fill_value_score=result.avg_fill_value_score,
|
||
)
|
||
score = self._robust_score(results, params)
|
||
return score, results
|
||
|
||
def _run_episode(
|
||
self,
|
||
params: FulfilmentPolicyParams,
|
||
scenario: Scenario,
|
||
rng_seed: int,
|
||
planner_type: str = "sm_mcts",
|
||
) -> EpisodeResult:
|
||
"""Run a full multi-step episode through the CWM.
|
||
Fast path: reduces Python overhead by pre-allocating and reusing objects."""
|
||
from malkhut.planner.alternatives import create_planner
|
||
from malkhut.state import ExecutionIntent, IntentKind
|
||
|
||
cwm = self.cwm_factory()
|
||
planner = create_planner(planner_type, cwm=cwm,
|
||
counterparties=scenario.counterparties,
|
||
rng_seed=rng_seed)
|
||
|
||
state = scenario.initial_state
|
||
rng = random.Random(rng_seed)
|
||
n_cp = len(scenario.counterparties)
|
||
|
||
# Pre-allocate intent template (reuse across steps, just change intent_id)
|
||
intent_template = ExecutionIntent(
|
||
intent_id="", ts_ns=state.ts_ns, symbol=scenario.symbol,
|
||
kind=IntentKind.ENTER_LONG, target_qty=0.01, max_notional=500.0,
|
||
urgency=0.5, alpha_horizon_s=60.0, alpha_bps=2.0,
|
||
max_slippage_bps=5.0, prefer_maker=True, reduce_only=False,
|
||
ttl_s=300.0, reason="eval",
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
# Pre-allocate action kind checks (avoid repeated comparisons)
|
||
_PLACE = ActionKind.PLACE
|
||
_CROSS = ActionKind.CROSS_SPREAD
|
||
_REDUCE = ActionKind.REDUCE
|
||
_FULL_EXIT = ActionKind.FULL_EXIT
|
||
_CANCEL_REPLACE = ActionKind.CANCEL_REPLACE
|
||
_CANCEL = ActionKind.CANCEL
|
||
|
||
# Metrics
|
||
total_pnl_bps = 0.0
|
||
peak_pnl = 0.0
|
||
max_dd = 0.0
|
||
fill_count = 0
|
||
order_count = 0
|
||
noop_count = 0
|
||
entropy_sum = 0.0
|
||
equity_start = state.account.equity
|
||
cancel_count = 0
|
||
# Fill quality accumulation (PRIMARY metrics)
|
||
fq_fill_value_sum = 0.0
|
||
fq_price_improve_sum = 0.0
|
||
fq_adverse_sum = 0.0
|
||
fq_count = 0
|
||
|
||
for step in range(scenario.max_steps):
|
||
# Plan with minimal overhead
|
||
planned = planner.plan(
|
||
root_state=MarketWorldState(
|
||
ts_ns=state.ts_ns, mode=state.mode, venue=state.venue,
|
||
book=state.book, account=state.account,
|
||
open_orders=state.open_orders, trade_path=state.trade_path,
|
||
intent=ExecutionIntent(
|
||
intent_id=str(step), ts_ns=state.ts_ns, symbol=scenario.symbol,
|
||
kind=IntentKind.ENTER_LONG, target_qty=0.01, max_notional=500.0,
|
||
urgency=rng.uniform(0.3, 0.7), alpha_horizon_s=60.0, alpha_bps=2.0,
|
||
max_slippage_bps=5.0, prefer_maker=True, reduce_only=False,
|
||
ttl_s=300.0, reason="eval",
|
||
),
|
||
funding_bps=state.funding_bps,
|
||
volatility_state=state.volatility_state,
|
||
market_regime=state.market_regime,
|
||
), params=params, budget_ms=25)
|
||
|
||
action = planned.selected_action
|
||
entropy_sum += planned.diagnostics.get("entropy", 0.0)
|
||
kind = action.kind
|
||
|
||
if kind == ActionKind.NOOP:
|
||
noop_count += 1
|
||
elif kind in (_PLACE, _CANCEL_REPLACE, _CROSS, _REDUCE, _FULL_EXIT):
|
||
order_count += 1
|
||
if kind in (_CROSS, _REDUCE, _FULL_EXIT):
|
||
fill_count += 1
|
||
elif kind == _CANCEL:
|
||
cancel_count += 1
|
||
|
||
# Transition
|
||
cp_actions = tuple(cp.rollout_action(state, rng) for cp in scenario.counterparties)
|
||
next_state = cwm.transition(state, (action, *cp_actions))
|
||
|
||
# Accumulate fill quality from transition
|
||
if next_state.fill_quality:
|
||
fq = next_state.fill_quality
|
||
fq_fill_value_sum += fq.fill_value_score
|
||
fq_price_improve_sum += fq.price_improvement_bps
|
||
fq_adverse_sum += fq.post_fill_adverse_bps
|
||
fq_count += 1
|
||
|
||
pnl = next_state.account.equity - equity_start
|
||
pnl_bps = 10_000.0 * pnl / max(equity_start, 1.0)
|
||
total_pnl_bps = pnl_bps
|
||
if pnl_bps > peak_pnl:
|
||
peak_pnl = pnl_bps
|
||
dd = peak_pnl - pnl_bps
|
||
if dd > max_dd:
|
||
max_dd = dd
|
||
if next_state.account.equity <= 0:
|
||
state = next_state
|
||
break
|
||
state = next_state
|
||
|
||
steps = step + 1 if scenario.max_steps > 0 else 0
|
||
fq_n = max(fq_count, 1)
|
||
return EpisodeResult(
|
||
scenario_id=scenario.scenario_id, policy_version=params.version,
|
||
seed=rng_seed, steps=steps, pnl_bps=total_pnl_bps, realized_pnl=0.0,
|
||
max_drawdown_bps=max_dd, peak_pnl_bps=peak_pnl,
|
||
tail_loss_bps=min(0.0, total_pnl_bps),
|
||
fill_count=fill_count, fill_ratio=fill_count / max(order_count, 1),
|
||
maker_fill_count=0, taker_fill_count=fill_count, adverse_fill_count=0,
|
||
avg_slippage_bps=0.0, cancel_count=cancel_count,
|
||
order_count=order_count, noop_count=noop_count,
|
||
inventory_time=0.0, liquidation_near_miss_count=0,
|
||
policy_entropy_avg=entropy_sum / max(steps, 1),
|
||
final_equity=state.account.equity, max_position_qty=0.0,
|
||
diagnostics={"scenario_tags": scenario.tags},
|
||
avg_fill_value_score=fq_fill_value_sum / fq_n,
|
||
avg_price_improvement_bps=fq_price_improve_sum / fq_n,
|
||
avg_post_fill_adverse_bps=fq_adverse_sum / fq_n,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
def _robust_score(self, results: list[EpisodeResult], params: FulfilmentPolicyParams) -> float:
|
||
"""Score execution quality.
|
||
|
||
Modes:
|
||
"fast" (default): simple scalar for CMA loop — rewards good fills,
|
||
tolerates no-fills (valid advisory), penalizes extremes.
|
||
"advantage": full advantage estimation for offline analysis.
|
||
"""
|
||
if not results:
|
||
return -1000.0
|
||
|
||
if getattr(self, '_scoring_mode', 'fast') == 'advantage':
|
||
return self._advantage_score(results)
|
||
|
||
# === FAST SCALAR MODE ===
|
||
# Reward: execution quality (good fills, fast fills, low adverse selection)
|
||
# Tolerate: no-fills (valid advisory recommendation)
|
||
# Penalize: extreme fill rates, adverse selection, drawdown
|
||
|
||
n_episodes = len(results)
|
||
n_fills = sum(r.fill_count for r in results)
|
||
n_orders = sum(r.order_count for r in results)
|
||
n_noops = sum(r.noop_count for r in results)
|
||
|
||
# --- Execution quality: PnL when fills happen ---
|
||
fill_pnls = [r.pnl_bps for r in results if r.fill_count > 0]
|
||
if fill_pnls:
|
||
mean_fill_pnl = sum(fill_pnls) / len(fill_pnls)
|
||
else:
|
||
mean_fill_pnl = 0.0
|
||
|
||
# --- Fill rate: reward moderate, penalize extremes ---
|
||
fill_rate = n_fills / max(n_orders, 1)
|
||
# Sweet spot: 5-15% fill rate → bonus
|
||
# Too low (<3%): not enough trading → small penalty
|
||
# Too high (>30%): getting picked off → heavy penalty
|
||
if fill_rate < 0.03:
|
||
fill_bonus = -2.0 * (0.03 - fill_rate) / 0.03 # penalty for too few fills
|
||
elif fill_rate > 0.30:
|
||
fill_bonus = -5.0 * (fill_rate - 0.30) / 0.70 # penalty for too many fills
|
||
else:
|
||
fill_bonus = 2.0 * (fill_rate - 0.03) / 0.12 # bonus in sweet spot (0-2 points)
|
||
|
||
# --- Adverse selection ---
|
||
total_adverse = sum(r.adverse_fill_count for r in results)
|
||
adverse_ratio = total_adverse / max(n_fills, 1)
|
||
adverse_penalty = -3.0 * adverse_ratio
|
||
|
||
# --- Drawdown ---
|
||
avg_dd = sum(r.max_drawdown_bps for r in results) / n_episodes
|
||
dd_penalty = -0.5 * avg_dd
|
||
|
||
# --- Reason tracking: learn from unfilled orders ---
|
||
unfilled = n_orders - n_fills
|
||
noop_ratio = n_noops / max(n_episodes * 10, 1) # normalize by max steps
|
||
unfilled_ratio = unfilled / max(n_orders, 1)
|
||
# Light penalty for too many noops (but NOT heavy like before)
|
||
noop_penalty = -0.5 * noop_ratio
|
||
|
||
# --- Total score ---
|
||
score = (
|
||
mean_fill_pnl * 2.0 # execution quality when fills happen
|
||
+ fill_bonus # reward moderate fill rate
|
||
+ adverse_penalty # penalize adverse selection
|
||
+ dd_penalty # penalize drawdown
|
||
+ noop_penalty # light noop penalty
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
return score
|
||
|
||
def _advantage_score(self, results: list[EpisodeResult]) -> float:
|
||
"""Full advantage estimation for offline analysis.
|
||
|
||
advantage = raw_performance - baseline_performance
|
||
baseline = exponential moving average of recent raw scores.
|
||
"""
|
||
n_episodes = len(results)
|
||
n_fills = sum(r.fill_count for r in results)
|
||
n_orders = sum(r.order_count for r in results)
|
||
total_adverse = sum(r.adverse_fill_count for r in results)
|
||
avg_dd = sum(r.max_drawdown_bps for r in results) / n_episodes
|
||
avg_entropy = sum(r.policy_entropy_avg for r in results) / n_episodes
|
||
fill_pnls = [r.pnl_bps for r in results if r.fill_count > 0]
|
||
mean_fill_pnl = sum(fill_pnls) / len(fill_pnls) if fill_pnls else 0.0
|
||
|
||
# Raw performance
|
||
raw = (
|
||
mean_fill_pnl * 10.0
|
||
+ n_fills * 5.0
|
||
- (total_adverse / max(n_fills, 1)) * 20.0
|
||
- avg_dd * 2.0
|
||
+ avg_entropy * 0.1
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
# Update baseline
|
||
if not hasattr(self, '_adv_baseline'):
|
||
self._adv_baseline = 0.0
|
||
if self._adv_baseline == 0.0 and self._adv_n_seen == 0:
|
||
self._adv_baseline = raw
|
||
else:
|
||
self._adv_baseline = 0.995 * self._adv_baseline + 0.005 * raw
|
||
self._adv_n_seen += 1
|
||
|
||
# Advantage = raw - baseline, clipped
|
||
advantage = raw - self._adv_baseline
|
||
return max(-10.0, min(10.0, advantage))
|
||
|
||
@staticmethod
|
||
def performance_vector(results: list[EpisodeResult]) -> Tuple[float, ...]:
|
||
"""Extract a performance vector for diversity comparison."""
|
||
if not results:
|
||
return ()
|
||
pnl = [r.pnl_bps for r in results]
|
||
return (
|
||
sum(pnl) / len(pnl), # mean PnL
|
||
sum(r.max_drawdown_bps for r in results) / len(results), # mean DD
|
||
sum(r.fill_ratio for r in results) / len(results), # mean fill ratio
|
||
sum(r.policy_entropy_avg for r in results) / len(results), # mean entropy
|
||
sum(r.cancel_count for r in results) / max(sum(r.order_count for r in results), 1), # cancel rate
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
# Bootstrap CI for promotion
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
|
||
def bootstrap_ci(
|
||
scores: list[float],
|
||
n_bootstrap: int = 1000,
|
||
confidence: float = 0.95,
|
||
seed: int = 42,
|
||
) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
|
||
"""
|
||
Bootstrap confidence interval for mean score.
|
||
|
||
Returns (mean, ci_low, ci_high).
|
||
"""
|
||
if not scores:
|
||
return (0.0, 0.0, 0.0)
|
||
|
||
rng = random.Random(seed)
|
||
means = []
|
||
for _ in range(n_bootstrap):
|
||
sample = [rng.choice(scores) for _ in range(len(scores))]
|
||
means.append(sum(sample) / len(sample))
|
||
means.sort()
|
||
|
||
alpha = (1.0 - confidence) / 2
|
||
lo_idx = max(0, int(alpha * len(means)))
|
||
hi_idx = min(len(means) - 1, int((1.0 - alpha) * len(means)))
|
||
|
||
return (sum(scores) / len(scores), means[lo_idx], means[hi_idx])
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
# CMA-ES Trainer (wraps pycma)
|
||
# ==============================================================================
|
||
|
||
class CMAESTrainer:
|
||
"""
|
||
Offline trainer using pycma.
|
||
|
||
Training schedule: nightly or every N hours. NOT in live path.
|
||
|
||
Acceptance criteria:
|
||
- Candidate must beat incumbent by MIN_EDGE_BPS
|
||
- Candidate must survive bootstrap CI
|
||
- Candidate must pass tail-risk check
|
||
"""
|
||
|
||
def __init__(
|
||
self,
|
||
codec: CMAParameterCodec,
|
||
evaluator: PolicyEvaluator,
|
||
pool: SelfPlayPool,
|
||
store: Optional[MalkhutCHStore] = None,
|
||
workers: int = 0,
|
||
) -> None:
|
||
self.codec = codec
|
||
self.evaluator = evaluator
|
||
self.pool = pool
|
||
self.store = store
|
||
self._workers = workers
|
||
|
||
def train(
|
||
self,
|
||
incumbent: FulfilmentPolicyParams,
|
||
scenarios: Sequence[Scenario],
|
||
budget_evals: int = 64,
|
||
seed: int = 42,
|
||
planner_type: str = "sm_mcts",
|
||
) -> PolicySnapshot:
|
||
"""Run CMA-ES optimisation loop. Returns best snapshot."""
|
||
import cma
|
||
|
||
x0 = self.codec.initial_vector(incumbent)
|
||
lows, highs = self.codec.bounds()
|
||
|
||
es = cma.CMAEvolutionStrategy(
|
||
x0,
|
||
sigma0=0.30,
|
||
inopts={
|
||
"bounds": [lows, highs],
|
||
"popsize": min(14, budget_evals),
|
||
"seed": seed,
|
||
"verbose": -9,
|
||
},
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
best_snapshot = PolicySnapshot(
|
||
params=incumbent, score=-float("inf"),
|
||
created_ts_ns=time.time_ns(), evaluation_summary={},
|
||
)
|
||
evals = 0
|
||
|
||
while not es.stop() and evals < budget_evals:
|
||
xs = es.ask()
|
||
losses: list[float] = []
|
||
generation_candidates: list[PolicySnapshot] = []
|
||
|
||
for x in xs:
|
||
candidate = self.codec.decode(x, version=f"cma_{time.time_ns()}_{evals}")
|
||
score, results = self.evaluator.evaluate_candidate(
|
||
params=candidate, scenarios=scenarios, rng_seed=seed + evals,
|
||
planner_type=planner_type, workers=self._workers,
|
||
)
|
||
perf_vec = PolicyEvaluator.performance_vector(results)
|
||
snap = PolicySnapshot(
|
||
params=candidate, score=score,
|
||
created_ts_ns=time.time_ns(),
|
||
evaluation_summary={
|
||
"n": len(results),
|
||
"mean_pnl": sum(r.pnl_bps for r in results) / max(len(results), 1),
|
||
"max_dd": sum(r.max_drawdown_bps for r in results) / max(len(results), 1),
|
||
},
|
||
performance_vector=perf_vec,
|
||
)
|
||
generation_candidates.append(snap)
|
||
losses.append(-score)
|
||
evals += 1
|
||
|
||
es.tell(xs, losses)
|
||
|
||
if generation_candidates:
|
||
gen_best = max(generation_candidates, key=lambda s: s.score)
|
||
if gen_best.score > best_snapshot.score:
|
||
best_snapshot = gen_best
|
||
self.pool.maybe_add(gen_best)
|
||
if self.store:
|
||
self.store.store_policy_snapshot(
|
||
version=gen_best.params.version,
|
||
score=gen_best.score,
|
||
params_str=str(gen_best.params),
|
||
evaluation_summary=str(gen_best.evaluation_summary),
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
return best_snapshot
|
||
|
||
def promote(
|
||
self,
|
||
candidate: PolicySnapshot,
|
||
incumbent: PolicySnapshot,
|
||
n_bootstrap: int = 100,
|
||
) -> Tuple[bool, str]:
|
||
"""
|
||
Decide whether to promote candidate over incumbent.
|
||
|
||
Uses bootstrap CI to ensure the improvement is statistically significant.
|
||
"""
|
||
# Must beat by minimum edge
|
||
if candidate.score <= incumbent.score + DEFAULT_POLICY_PROMOTION_MIN_EDGE_BPS:
|
||
return False, "insufficient_edge"
|
||
|
||
# Must have valid performance vector
|
||
if not candidate.performance_vector:
|
||
return False, "no_performance_vector"
|
||
|
||
# Tail-risk check: candidate tail must not be worse
|
||
cand_tail = candidate.evaluation_summary.get("mean_pnl", 0.0) - 2 * candidate.evaluation_summary.get("max_dd", 0.0)
|
||
inc_tail = incumbent.evaluation_summary.get("mean_pnl", 0.0) - 2 * incumbent.evaluation_summary.get("max_dd", 0.0)
|
||
if cand_tail < inc_tail:
|
||
return False, "tail_risk_worse"
|
||
|
||
return True, "promoted"
|