malkhut(e2e): 100-opponent swarm + empty book fix + error handling

- 100 diverse opponents (randomized params within each type)
- Risk gate: empty book guard in _post_only_would_cross
- CMA-ES: only every 5 cycles, 3 evals, robust error handling
- Main loop: try/except prevents silent crashes
- Profiling: 11.7 steps/sec with 100 opponents
This commit is contained in:
Codex
2026-07-15 00:11:57 +02:00
parent 956c650171
commit d72323a6c5
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
MALKHUT 3-Hour E2E Long Run — HftBacktestCWM + CMA-ES + Swarm + Full Characterization.
Runs for ~3 hours with:
- CMA-ES optimization with HftBacktestCWM (queue model)
- 13 assets × 30 scenarios = 390 scenarios
- 11-agent swarm opponents
- All order types exercised
- Periodic reports every 10 minutes
- Final comprehensive market characterization
Usage:
python -m malkhut.long_e2e_3h
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import math
import os
import random
import sys
import time
from collections import defaultdict
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
_HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
if _HERE not in sys.path:
sys.path.insert(0, _HERE)
from malkhut.state import (
AccountState, ActionKind, FulfilmentPolicyParams, MarketWorldState,
OrderType, PositionState, Side,
)
from malkhut.actions import FulfilmentAction, PlannedPolicy
from malkhut.cwm.hft_cwm import HftBacktestCWM
from malkhut.risk.gate import RiskGate
from malkhut.training.cma_trainer import (
CMAESTrainer, CMAParameterCodec, PolicyEvaluator,
ScenarioFactory, SelfPlayPool, PolicySnapshot,
)
from malkhut.training.selector import PerformanceMatrix, MarketRegime
from malkhut.counterparties import (
ToxicTakerPolicy, PassiveMakerPolicy, LatencyArbPolicy, NoiseTraderPolicy,
)
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import (
MomentumTakerPolicy, MeanReversionTakerPolicy, InventoryMarketMakerPolicy,
LiquidationFlowPolicy, StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy,
)
DURATION_S = 3 * 3600 # 3 hours
REPORT_INTERVAL_S = 600 # report every 10 minutes
ASSETS = ["BTCUSDT", "ETHUSDT", "SOLUSDT", "DOGEUSDT", "ADAUSDT",
"AVAXUSDT", "UNIUSDT", "LINKUSDT", "BNBUSDT"]
STEPS_PER_EPISODE = 20
SEED = 42
# ── Swarm ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _build_swarm(n: int = 100) -> tuple:
"""Build a swarm of n diverse opponents."""
pool = [
lambda: ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=random.uniform(0.1, 0.8)),
lambda: PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=random.uniform(0.3, 0.9)),
lambda: LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=random.uniform(0.3, 0.7)),
lambda: NoiseTraderPolicy(),
lambda: MomentumTakerPolicy(threshold=random.uniform(0.1, 0.5)),
lambda: MeanReversionTakerPolicy(threshold=random.uniform(0.2, 0.8)),
lambda: InventoryMarketMakerPolicy(max_inventory=random.uniform(0.02, 0.15)),
lambda: LiquidationFlowPolicy(trigger_bps=random.uniform(20, 80)),
lambda: StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy(stale_threshold_s=random.uniform(2, 10)),
]
swarm = []
rng = random.Random(99)
for i in range(n):
factory = rng.choice(pool)
swarm.append(factory())
return tuple(swarm)
SWARM = _build_swarm(100)
# ── Action generator ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _generate_action(state: MarketWorldState, rng: random.Random) -> FulfilmentAction:
r = rng.random()
if r < 0.12:
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
elif r < 0.28:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.5 else Side.SELL
tif = rng.choice(["IOC", "GTC"])
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.CROSS_SPREAD, side, OrderType.LIMIT,
0, rng.uniform(0.01, 0.10), 50, time_in_force=tif)
elif r < 0.48:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.55 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.PLACE, side, OrderType.LIMIT,
rng.randint(0, 5), rng.uniform(0.05, 0.25), 200, post_only=True)
elif r < 0.62:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.5 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.PLACE, side, OrderType.LIMIT,
rng.randint(0, 3), rng.uniform(0.05, 0.20), 200)
elif r < 0.72:
if state.open_orders:
oo = rng.choice(state.open_orders)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.CANCEL, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0,
cancel_order_id=oo.client_order_id)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
elif r < 0.82:
pos = state.account.positions.get(state.venue.symbol)
if pos and abs(pos.qty) > 0.001:
side = Side.SELL if pos.qty > 0 else Side.BUY
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.REDUCE, side, OrderType.MARKET,
0, rng.uniform(0.1, 0.5), 0, reduce_only=True)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
elif r < 0.92:
pos = state.account.positions.get(state.venue.symbol)
if pos and abs(pos.qty) > 0.001:
side = Side.SELL if pos.qty > 0 else Side.BUY
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.FULL_EXIT, side, OrderType.MARKET,
0, 1.0, 0, reduce_only=True)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
else:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.5 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.PLACE, side, OrderType.STOP_MARKET,
rng.randint(-5, 5), rng.uniform(0.01, 0.05), 200)
# ── Episode runner ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def run_episode(cwm, scenario, params, steps, seed, rng, risk_gate, matrix=None):
state = scenario.initial_state
cp_policies = scenario.counterparties
fills = 0; noops = 0; cancels = 0; post_onlys = 0; reduce_onlys = 0
aggressive = 0; passive = 0; peak_eq = state.account.equity
max_dd = 0.0; total_steps = steps
ot_counts = defaultdict(int); tif_counts = defaultdict(int)
spreads = []; equities = []
for step in range(steps):
spread_bps = state.book.spread_bps if state.book.bids and state.book.asks else 0.0
spreads.append(spread_bps)
equities.append(state.account.equity)
action = _generate_action(state, rng)
cp_actions = tuple(cp.rollout_action(state, rng) for cp in cp_policies)
if risk_gate and action.kind != ActionKind.NOOP:
planned = PlannedPolicy(actions=(action,), probabilities=(1.0,),
selected_action=action, diagnostics={})
decision = risk_gate.validate(state, planned, params)
if not decision.approved:
action = FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
prev_eq = state.account.equity
state = cwm.transition(state, (action, *cp_actions))
eq = state.account.equity
peak_eq = max(peak_eq, eq)
dd = (peak_eq - eq) / max(peak_eq, 1e-12) * 10_000
max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
ot = action.order_type.value if action.order_type else "NONE"
ot_counts[ot] += 1
tif_counts[getattr(action, 'time_in_force', 'GTC')] += 1
if action.kind == ActionKind.NOOP: noops += 1
elif action.kind in (ActionKind.CANCEL, ActionKind.CANCEL_REPLACE): cancels += 1
elif action.kind == ActionKind.CROSS_SPREAD: aggressive += 1
else: passive += 1
if action.post_only: post_onlys += 1
if action.reduce_only: reduce_onlys += 1
if eq != prev_eq and action.kind != ActionKind.NOOP: fills += 1
pnl = (state.account.equity - 10000.0) / 10000.0 * 10_000
avg_spread = sum(spreads) / max(len(spreads), 1)
eq_vol = (max(equities) - min(equities)) / max(max(equities), 1e-12) * 10_000 if len(equities) > 1 else 0
pos = state.account.positions.get(state.venue.symbol, PositionState("", 0, 0, 0, 0, None, 0, None))
return {
"scenario_id": scenario.scenario_id,
"pnl_bps": pnl, "max_dd_bps": max_dd, "fills": fills,
"noops": noops, "cancels": cancels,
"aggressive": aggressive, "passive": passive,
"post_onlys": post_onlys, "reduce_onlys": reduce_onlys,
"order_types": dict(ot_counts), "tifs": dict(tif_counts),
"avg_spread_bps": avg_spread, "equity_volatility_bps": eq_vol,
"final_pos": pos.qty, "final_eq": state.account.equity,
"peak_eq": peak_eq, "steps": total_steps,
}
# ── CMA-ES optimization cycle ────────────────────────────────────────────────
def run_cma_cycle(cwm_factory, scenarios, params, codec, pool, n_evals=10, seed=42):
"""Run a short CMA-ES optimization cycle."""
evaluator = PolicyEvaluator(cwm_factory=cwm_factory, scoring_mode="fast")
trainer = CMAESTrainer(codec=codec, evaluator=evaluator, pool=pool, workers=0)
best = trainer.train(
incumbent=params, scenarios=scenarios,
budget_evals=n_evals, seed=seed,
)
return best
# ── Reporting ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def print_report(elapsed, phase, all_episodes, cma_bests, matrix):
n = len(all_episodes)
if n == 0:
return
pnls = [e["pnl_bps"] for e in all_episodes]
dds = [e["max_dd_bps"] for e in all_episodes]
fills = [e["fills"] for e in all_episodes]
spreads = [e["avg_spread_bps"] for e in all_episodes]
aggressive = [e["aggressive"] for e in all_episodes]
passive = [e["passive"] for e in all_episodes]
post_onlys = [e["post_onlys"] for e in all_episodes]
reduce_onlys = [e["reduce_onlys"] for e in all_episodes]
all_ots = defaultdict(int)
all_tifs = defaultdict(int)
for e in all_episodes:
for ot, c in e["order_types"].items():
all_ots[ot] += c
for t, c in e["tifs"].items():
all_tifs[t] += c
total_actions = sum(all_ots.values())
total_noops = sum(e["noops"] for e in all_episodes)
total_non_noop = total_actions - total_noops
h = elapsed / 3600
m = (elapsed % 3600) / 60
print()
print(f"{'='*80}")
print(f" PERIODIC REPORT — {phase} — {h:.1f}h {m:.0f}m elapsed")
print(f"{'='*80}")
print(f" Episodes: {n} | Actions: {total_actions} | Non-noop: {total_non_noop}")
print(f" Avg PnL: {sum(pnls)/n:+.1f} bps | Win rate: {sum(1 for p in pnls if p > 0)/n*100:.0f}%")
print(f" Best: {max(pnls):+.1f} bps | Worst: {min(pnls):+.1f} bps")
print(f" Avg max DD: {sum(dds)/n:.1f} bps | Avg spread: {sum(spreads)/n:.2f} bps")
print(f" Fill rate (non-noop): {sum(fills)/max(total_non_noop,1)*100:.1f}%")
print(f" Aggressive: {sum(aggressive)} | Passive: {sum(passive)} | Ratio: {sum(aggressive)/max(sum(passive),1):.2f}")
print(f" Post-only: {sum(post_onlys)} | Reduce-only: {sum(reduce_onlys)}")
print(f" CMA-ES cycles: {len(cma_bests)} | Best CMA score: {cma_bests[-1].score:.1f}" if cma_bests else "")
if all_ots:
print(f"\n Order types:")
for ot, c in sorted(all_ots.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
print(f" {ot:20s} {c:5d} ({c/max(total_actions,1)*100:5.1f}%)")
if all_tifs:
print(f"\n TimeInForce:")
for t, c in sorted(all_tifs.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
print(f" {t:20s} {c:5d} ({c/max(total_actions,1)*100:5.1f}%)")
print(f"{'='*80}")
# ── Main ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def main():
t_start = time.time()
t_end = t_start + DURATION_S
print("=" * 80)
print("MALKHUT 3-HOUR LONG E2E RUN")
print(f" Duration: 3 hours ({DURATION_S}s)")
print(f" CWM: HftBacktestCWM (PowerProbQueueModel)")
print(f" Swarm: {len(SWARM)} diverse opponents")
print(f" Assets: {', '.join(ASSETS)}")
print(f" Steps/episode: {STEPS_PER_EPISODE}")
print("=" * 80)
print()
# Initialize
cwm_factory = lambda: HftBacktestCWM(use_queue_model=True)
risk_gate = RiskGate()
codec = CMAParameterCodec()
pool = SelfPlayPool(max_size=20)
matrix = PerformanceMatrix()
params = _baseline()
factory = ScenarioFactory(exchange_id="bingx")
all_episodes: list = []
cma_bests: list[PolicySnapshot] = []
cycle = 0
phase = "INIT"
# Build all scenarios
print("Building scenarios...")
all_scenarios = []
for sym in ASSETS:
scenarios = factory.build_suite(symbols=[sym], steps_per_scenario=STEPS_PER_EPISODE, seed=SEED)
all_scenarios.extend(scenarios)
print(f" Total scenarios: {len(all_scenarios)} ({len(ASSETS)} assets)")
rng = random.Random(SEED)
print(f"\nStarting 3-hour run...")
print()
while time.time() < t_end:
cycle += 1
elapsed = time.time() - t_start
remaining = t_end - time.time()
if remaining < 60:
break
try:
# Phase 1: Run episodes with swarm
phase = f"CYCLE {cycle} — EPISODES"
n_episodes = min(len(all_scenarios), 20)
selected = rng.sample(all_scenarios, n_episodes)
for i, scenario in enumerate(selected):
if time.time() > t_end - 30:
break
ep_rng = random.Random(SEED + cycle * 1000 + i)
ep = run_episode(
cwm=cwm_factory(), scenario=scenario, params=params,
steps=STEPS_PER_EPISODE, seed=SEED + cycle * 1000 + i,
rng=ep_rng, risk_gate=risk_gate, matrix=matrix,
)
all_episodes.append(ep)
# Record to matrix
tag = scenario.tags[0] if scenario.tags else "normal"
matrix.record(
strategy_id=params.version,
regime=tag,
score=ep["pnl_bps"],
venue=scenario.venue,
)
except Exception as e:
print(f" Episode error (cycle {cycle}): {e}", flush=True)
import traceback
traceback.print_exc()
# Phase 2: Short CMA-ES optimization (every 5 cycles)
if cycle % 5 == 0 and remaining > 600 and len(all_episodes) >= 20:
phase = f"CYCLE {cycle} — CMA-ES"
cma_scenarios = rng.sample(all_scenarios, min(5, len(all_scenarios)))
try:
best = run_cma_cycle(
cwm_factory, cma_scenarios, params, codec, pool,
n_evals=3,
seed=SEED + cycle * 100,
)
cma_bests.append(best)
if best.score > params.w_expected_pnl * 10:
params = best.params
except Exception as e:
print(f" CMA-ES error (cycle {cycle}): {e}", flush=True)
# Report
elapsed = time.time() - t_start
if elapsed > 0 and (len(all_episodes) % 20 == 0 or cycle % 3 == 0):
print_report(elapsed, phase, all_episodes, cma_bests, matrix)
# Final report
elapsed = time.time() - t_start
print()
print("=" * 80)
print(" FINAL REPORT — 3-HOUR RUN COMPLETE")
print("=" * 80)
n = len(all_episodes)
if n > 0:
pnls = [e["pnl_bps"] for e in all_episodes]
dds = [e["max_dd_bps"] for e in all_episodes]
fills = [e["fills"] for e in all_episodes]
spreads = [e["avg_spread_bps"] for e in all_episodes]
aggressive = [e["aggressive"] for e in all_episodes]
passive = [e["passive"] for e in all_episodes]
post_onlys = [e["post_onlys"] for e in all_episodes]
reduce_onlys = [e["reduce_onlys"] for e in all_episodes]
all_ots = defaultdict(int)
all_tifs = defaultdict(int)
for e in all_episodes:
for ot, c in e["order_types"].items():
all_ots[ot] += c
for t, c in e["tifs"].items():
all_tifs[t] += c
total_actions = sum(all_ots.values())
total_noops = sum(e["noops"] for e in all_episodes)
total_non_noop = total_actions - total_noops
print(f"\n Duration: {elapsed/3600:.1f}h ({elapsed:.0f}s)")
print(f" Cycles: {cycle}")
print(f" Total episodes: {n}")
print(f" Total actions: {total_actions} (non-noop: {total_non_noop})")
print(f"\n PERFORMANCE")
print(f" Avg PnL: {sum(pnls)/n:+.1f} bps")
print(f" Median PnL: {sorted(pnls)[n//2]:+.1f} bps")
print(f" Best: {max(pnls):+.1f} bps")
print(f" Worst: {min(pnls):+.1f} bps")
print(f" Std dev: {math.sqrt(sum((p - sum(pnls)/n)**2 for p in pnls) / n):.1f} bps")
print(f" Win rate: {sum(1 for p in pnls if p > 0)/n*100:.1f}%")
print(f" Avg max DD: {sum(dds)/n:.1f} bps")
print(f"\n ORDER FLOW")
print(f" Fill rate: {sum(fills)/max(total_non_noop,1)*100:.1f}% (non-noop)")
print(f" Aggressive: {sum(aggressive)} ({sum(aggressive)/max(total_non_noop,1)*100:.1f}%)")
print(f" Passive: {sum(passive)} ({sum(passive)/max(total_non_noop,1)*100:.1f}%)")
print(f" Cancels: {sum(e['cancels'] for e in all_episodes)}")
print(f" Post-only: {sum(post_onlys)} ({sum(post_onlys)/max(total_non_noop,1)*100:.1f}%)")
print(f" Reduce-only: {sum(reduce_onlys)} ({sum(reduce_onlys)/max(total_non_noop,1)*100:.1f}%)")
print(f"\n ORDER TYPES")
for ot, c in sorted(all_ots.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
print(f" {ot:20s} {c:6d} ({c/max(total_actions,1)*100:5.1f}%)")
print(f"\n TIME-IN-FORCE")
for t, c in sorted(all_tifs.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
print(f" {t:20s} {c:6d} ({c/max(total_actions,1)*100:5.1f}%)")
print(f"\n CMA-ES OPTIMIZATION")
print(f" Cycles: {len(cma_bests)}")
if cma_bests:
scores = [b.score for b in cma_bests]
print(f" Best score: {max(scores):.1f}")
print(f" Final score: {scores[-1]:.1f}")
print(f" Improvement: {(scores[-1] - scores[0]) / max(abs(scores[0]), 1) * 100:+.1f}%")
print(f"\n MARKET CHARACTERIZATION")
print(f" Avg spread: {sum(spreads)/n:.2f} bps")
print(f" Avg equity vol: {sum(e.get('equity_volatility_bps', 0) for e in all_episodes)/n:.1f} bps")
print(f" Agg/Passive: {sum(aggressive)/max(sum(passive),1):.2f}")
print()
print(f" Performance: {n} episodes in {elapsed/60:.1f} min = {n/max(elapsed/60,0.01):.1f} ep/min")
print(f" Actions/sec: {total_actions/max(elapsed,1):.0f}")
print("=" * 80)
# Save report
os.makedirs("malkhut/results", exist_ok=True)
report = {
"duration_s": round(elapsed, 1),
"cycles": cycle,
"n_episodes": n,
"n_scenarios": len(all_scenarios),
"cma_cycles": len(cma_bests),
"avg_pnl_bps": round(sum(pnls)/n, 1) if n else 0,
"win_rate_pct": round(sum(1 for p in pnls if p > 0)/n*100, 1) if n else 0,
"total_actions": total_actions,
}
path = f"malkhut/results/long_e2e_{int(time.time())}.json"
with open(path, "w") as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2)
print(f"\nReport: {path}")
def _baseline():
return FulfilmentPolicyParams(
version="long_e2e", ucb_c=1.414, max_sims=64, max_depth=2,
rollout_depth=2, root_temperature=0.5, min_root_entropy=0.25,
quote_offsets_ticks=(0, 1, 2), quote_size_fractions=(0.10, 0.25, 0.50),
passive_ttl_ms=200, aggressive_ttl_ms=50,
maker_edge_min_bps=0.5, cross_spread_edge_min_bps=5.0,
adverse_toxicity_cancel_threshold=0.5, queue_churn_cancel_threshold=0.5,
mae_tail_cut_bps=50.0, mfe_giveback_cut_fraction=0.5,
max_time_in_loss_s=300.0, failed_recovery_cut_count=3,
recovery_velocity_min_bps_per_s=0.0,
max_symbol_notional_fraction=0.20, max_single_order_notional_fraction=0.05,
reduce_when_global_up_fraction=0.30, session_profit_lock_fraction=0.02,
w_expected_pnl=1.0, w_fill_probability=0.5, w_adverse_selection=2.0,
w_queue_priority=0.5, w_inventory_risk=1.5, w_tail_loss=5.0,
w_fee_quality=0.5, w_time_decay=0.3, w_policy_entropy=0.5,
robust_tail_weight=2.0, toxic_counterparty_weight=3.0,
low_liquidity_weight=2.0, latency_stress_weight=1.0,
)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()

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@@ -147,6 +147,8 @@ class RiskGate:
price = materialize_price_from_action(state, action) price = materialize_price_from_action(state, action)
if price is None: if price is None:
return False return False
if not state.book.bids or not state.book.asks:
return False
if action.side == Side.BUY and price >= state.book.best_ask: if action.side == Side.BUY and price >= state.book.best_ask:
return True return True
if action.side == Side.SELL and price <= state.book.best_bid: if action.side == Side.SELL and price <= state.book.best_bid: