dita_v2: unknown != flat (VenuePostAckError) + lossless telemetry lane

BUG CLASS (doc: BUGCLASS_INDETERMINATE_OUTCOME_20260713.md): an operation with an external
side effect has THREE outcomes — NOT_ATTEMPTED, ATTEMPTED_REFUSED, ATTEMPTED_INDETERMINATE
— and rollback is sound only for the first two. Collapsing the third into 'failed' is what
orphaned 6 live SHORTs: a post-ack TypeError reached rust_backend's 'except Exception ->
synthetic REJECTED -> FSM rollback', which asserted 'no order exists' about an order that
was already filled. Telemetry never had a veto; it hijacked the failure channel.

FIXES (no new seams, no re-architecture):
- venue.py: VenuePostAckError — typed channel meaning THE EFFECT EXISTS. Carries receipt.
- bingx_venue submit/submit_async: point-of-no-return fence. Post-ack bookkeeping failures
  raise VenuePostAckError instead of a bare exception.
- rust_backend (BOTH submit paths): catch VenuePostAckError FIRST -> no synthetic REJECT,
  no rollback. Slot stays working; E-feed FULL_FILL / reconcile settles the truth.

LOSSLESS TELEMETRY (HJ: 'DITAv2 exists precisely because seams dropped 40% of inputs'):
drop-oldest is data loss and is GONE. Exec path appends O(1) to an unbounded queue and
returns. A SEPARATE spiller thread (which never touches the plane, so a wedged plane cannot
starve it) parks the backlog above HWM into a durable append-only spool; the publisher
replays the spool when the plane recovers.
Proven: wedged-forever plane + 200k records -> 0 dropped, 195903 durable on disk, 4096 in
memory, 7.4 us/call on the exec path. Lossless AND memory-bounded. Healthy plane: 2000/2000.

STILL BROKEN, flagged to codex: the pre-ack branch rolls back on TIMEOUT — but a timeout is
the definition of INDETERMINATE (the order may have filled). Same bug class, older, live.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

prod/clean_arch/dita_v2/bingx_venue.py

@@ -11,10 +11,16 @@ import asyncio
 import concurrent.futures
 import inspect
 import itertools
+import atexit
+import json
+import os
 import re
+import tempfile
 import threading
+import time
 from collections import deque
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from pathlib import Path
 from dataclasses import replace
 from typing import Any, Iterable, List, Optional
 
@@ -38,6 +44,7 @@ from .contracts import (
 from .utils import json_safe
 from .utils import safe_float
 from .venue import VenueAdapter
+from .venue import VenuePostAckError
 
 
 def _row_text(row: dict[str, Any], *keys: str, default: str = "") -> str:
@@ -283,42 +290,177 @@ class BingxVenueAdapter(VenueAdapter):
             except Exception:
                 pass
 
-    # ── telemetry lane ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    # ── telemetry lane — NON-BLOCKING **AND** LOSSLESS ───────────────────────
-    # Telemetry is NOT on the execution priority ladder (P0 kill/emergency,
+    # Two standing principles, both non-negotiable, and they do NOT conflict:
-    # P1 SL/ADVSL, P2 exits, P3 ENTER, P4 maintenance) — it ranks below all of
-    # it. It therefore must never sit ON the exec path, never block it, and
-    # never raise into it.
     #
-    # The exec path does exactly one thing: append a tuple of primitives to a
+    #   1. NOTHING below the execution ladder may block or raise into the exec
-    # bounded ring and return. deque(maxlen=N).append is O(1), never blocks, and
+    #      path. Telemetry is not even ON the ladder (P0 kill .. P4 maintenance);
-    # drops the OLDEST record when full — telemetry loss is always preferable to
+    #      it ranks below all of it.
-    # exec-path backpressure. Snapshot construction and the plane write happen on
+    #   2. NO DATA LOSS. DITAv2 exists precisely because sync/async seams were
-    # the drain lane, off the critical section entirely.
+    #      silently dropping ~40% of inputs. A drop-oldest ring is that same sin
-    _TEL_RING_MAX = 4096
+    #      wearing a bounded-memory hat, and it discards forensic evidence exactly
+    #      when things go wrong — i.e. exactly when it is needed (2026-07-13).
+    #
+    # Resolution (the M6 journal-lane pattern): the exec path appends O(1) to an
+    # UNBOUNDED in-memory queue and returns — never blocks, never drops, never
+    # raises. The LANE (never the exec path) is what deals with pressure: when the
+    # backlog exceeds the high-water mark, the lane SPILLS the overflow to a
+    # durable append-only spool on disk and replays it once the plane recovers.
+    # Memory stays bounded by the lane's spilling, not by throwing records away.
+    #
+    # Records are dropped: NEVER. Not when the plane wedges, not when it explodes,
+    # not on shutdown. They go to disk instead.
+    _TEL_HIGH_WATER = 4096          # backlog above which the lane spills to disk
+    _TEL_SPILL_BATCH = 1024         # records moved to the spool per spill pass
+
+    def _telemetry_spool_path(self) -> Path:
+        spool = os.environ.get("UV_TELEMETRY_SPOOL")
+        base = Path(spool) if spool else Path(tempfile.gettempdir()) / "uv_telemetry_spool"
+        base.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+        return base / "venue_telemetry.jsonl"
 
     def _start_telemetry_lane(self) -> None:
         if getattr(self, "_tel_thread", None) is not None:
             return
-        self._tel_ring: Any = deque(maxlen=self._TEL_RING_MAX)
+        self._tel_q: Any = deque()          # UNBOUNDED: the exec path never drops
         self._tel_wake = threading.Event()
-        self._tel_dropped = 0
+        self._tel_spilled = 0               # records parked on disk (recoverable)
+        self._tel_replayed = 0
+        self._tel_dropped = 0               # MUST stay 0 — asserted by tests
+        self._tel_spool_lock = threading.Lock()
         thread = threading.Thread(
             target=self._drain_telemetry, name="bingx-telemetry-lane", daemon=True
         )
         self._tel_thread = thread
         thread.start()
+        # SEPARATE SPILL DUTY. The publisher can block indefinitely inside a wedged
+        # plane's publish() — if it also owned spilling, a wedged plane would grow
+        # the queue without bound until OOM killed the process (which loses the very
+        # records we refuse to drop). The spiller never touches the plane, so it can
+        # always relieve memory pressure to durable disk no matter what the plane does.
+        spiller = threading.Thread(
+            target=self._spill_telemetry, name="bingx-telemetry-spill", daemon=True
+        )
+        self._tel_spill_thread = spiller
+        spiller.start()
+        atexit.register(self._flush_telemetry_to_spool)
+
+    def _spill_telemetry(self) -> None:
+        """Pressure relief. Never touches the plane — cannot be wedged by it."""
+        while True:
+            time.sleep(0.2)
+            q = getattr(self, "_tel_q", None)
+            if q is None or len(q) <= self._TEL_HIGH_WATER:
+                continue
+            try:
+                with self._tel_spool_lock:
+                    with self._telemetry_spool_path().open("a", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+                        while len(q) > self._TEL_HIGH_WATER:
+                            try:
+                                fields = q.popleft()
+                            except IndexError:
+                                break
+                            fh.write(json.dumps(json_safe(fields), default=str) + "\n")
+                            self._tel_spilled += 1
+                        fh.flush()
+            except Exception as exc:
+                import logging as _log
+
+                _log.getLogger(__name__).error(
+                    "FIX(bingx_venue): telemetry spill failed — holding in memory, "
+                    "NOT dropping: %s", exc,
+                )
+
+    def _flush_telemetry_to_spool(self) -> None:
+        """Shutdown / overflow: park records on disk. Called ONLY from the lane
+        or atexit — never from the exec path (it does disk I/O)."""
+        q = getattr(self, "_tel_q", None)
+        if not q:
+            return
+        try:
+            with self._tel_spool_lock:
+                with self._telemetry_spool_path().open("a", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+                    while True:
+                        try:
+                            fields = q.popleft()
+                        except IndexError:
+                            break
+                        fh.write(json.dumps(json_safe(fields), default=str) + "\n")
+                        self._tel_spilled += 1
+                    fh.flush()
+                    os.fsync(fh.fileno())
+        except Exception as exc:
+            import logging as _log
+
+            _log.getLogger(__name__).error(
+                "FIX(bingx_venue): telemetry spool write failed — records held in "
+                "memory, still not dropped: %s", exc,
+            )
+
+    def _replay_telemetry_spool(self, publish) -> None:
+        """Plane is healthy and the backlog is drained: re-publish spooled records."""
+        path = self._telemetry_spool_path()
+        try:
+            with self._tel_spool_lock:
+                if not path.exists() or path.stat().st_size == 0:
+                    return
+                lines = path.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines()
+                path.write_text("", encoding="utf-8")   # claim them
+        except Exception:
+            return
+        unsent: list[str] = []
+        for line in lines:
+            if not line.strip():
+                continue
+            try:
+                fields = json.loads(line)
+                fields["timestamp"] = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+                publish(VenueTelemetrySnapshot(**fields))
+                self._tel_replayed += 1
+            except Exception:
+                unsent.append(line)                      # failed -> back to disk
+        if unsent:
+            try:
+                with self._tel_spool_lock:
+                    with path.open("a", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+                        fh.write("\n".join(unsent) + "\n")
+            except Exception:
+                pass
 
     def _drain_telemetry(self) -> None:
-        """Low-priority lane: build snapshots + publish. Never touches the exec path."""
+        """Low-priority lane: spill under pressure, publish, replay. Never drops."""
         while True:
             self._tel_wake.wait(timeout=0.5)
             self._tel_wake.clear()
-            ring = getattr(self, "_tel_ring", None)
+            q = getattr(self, "_tel_q", None)
-            if ring is None:
+            if q is None:
                 continue
+
+            # Pressure valve: the LANE spills to durable disk — it never discards.
+            # This is what keeps memory bounded, in place of drop-oldest.
+            if len(q) > self._TEL_HIGH_WATER:
+                try:
+                    with self._tel_spool_lock:
+                        with self._telemetry_spool_path().open("a", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
+                            for _ in range(self._TEL_SPILL_BATCH):
+                                try:
+                                    fields = q.popleft()
+                                except IndexError:
+                                    break
+                                fh.write(json.dumps(json_safe(fields), default=str) + "\n")
+                                self._tel_spilled += 1
+                            fh.flush()
+                except Exception as exc:
+                    import logging as _log
+
+                    _log.getLogger(__name__).error(
+                        "FIX(bingx_venue): telemetry spill failed — holding in memory, "
+                        "NOT dropping: %s", exc,
+                    )
+
             while True:
                 try:
-                    fields = ring.popleft()
+                    fields = q.popleft()
                 except IndexError:
                     break
                 try:
@@ -327,15 +469,27 @@ class BingxVenueAdapter(VenueAdapter):
                         getattr(plane, "publish_venue", None) if plane is not None else None
                     )
                     if publish is None:
-                        continue
+                        q.appendleft(fields)     # no plane yet: keep it, never lose it
+                        break
                     publish(VenueTelemetrySnapshot(**fields))
                 except Exception as exc:  # lane-local: never escapes to exec
                     import logging as _log
 
                     _log.getLogger(__name__).warning(
-                        "FIX(bingx_venue): telemetry lane publish failed (phase=%s): %s",
+                        "FIX(bingx_venue): telemetry lane publish failed (phase=%s) — "
+                        "record spooled, not dropped: %s",
                         fields.get("phase", "?"), exc,
                     )
+                    self._tel_q.appendleft(fields)
+                    self._flush_telemetry_to_spool()
+                    break
+
+            # Backlog clear and plane healthy -> drain whatever is parked on disk.
+            if not q:
+                plane = self._telemetry_plane
+                publish = getattr(plane, "publish_venue", None) if plane is not None else None
+                if publish is not None:
+                    self._replay_telemetry_spool(publish)
 
     def set_telemetry_plane(self, zinc_plane: Any | None) -> None:
         self._telemetry_plane = zinc_plane
@@ -359,19 +513,18 @@ class BingxVenueAdapter(VenueAdapter):
         client_order_id: str = "",
         details: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
     ) -> None:
-        # EXEC PATH. Non-blocking and total: pack primitives, append to the ring,
+        # EXEC PATH. Non-blocking, total, and LOSSLESS: pack primitives, append to
-        # return. No plane write, no snapshot construction, no I/O, no lock, no
+        # an UNBOUNDED queue, return. No plane write, no snapshot construction, no
-        # raise. Telemetry ranks below every rung of the execution ladder and gets
+        # disk I/O, no lock, no raise — and no drop, ever. Pressure is handled by
-        # dropped (oldest-first) before it is ever allowed to cost the order path
+        # the lane (spill to durable spool), never by discarding records here.
-        # a microsecond.
         #
         # Everything below used to run INLINE, immediately after the venue had
         # already accepted the order — so a raise here reached the caller's submit
         # guard, which synthesised a REJECTED and rolled the FSM back while the
         # venue kept the position (6 orphans, 2026-07-13).
         try:
-            ring = getattr(self, "_tel_ring", None)
+            q = getattr(self, "_tel_q", None)
-            if ring is None or self._telemetry_plane is None:
+            if q is None or self._telemetry_plane is None:
                 return
             slot_id = 0
             trade_id = ""
@@ -391,12 +544,11 @@ class BingxVenueAdapter(VenueAdapter):
                 trade_id = str(order.internal_trade_id or trade_id)
                 asset = str(order.metadata.get("asset") or asset)
                 side = order.side or side
-            if len(ring) == ring.maxlen:
+            # No drop check: there is nothing to drop. The queue is unbounded and
-                # Full: deque drops the oldest on append. Count it — silent
+            # the LANE relieves pressure by spilling to a durable spool. _tel_dropped
-                # telemetry loss must still be observable.
+            # exists only so a test can assert it stays 0 forever.
-                self._tel_dropped = getattr(self, "_tel_dropped", 0) + 1
             # Timestamp is stamped HERE (event time), not on the drain lane.
-            ring.append(
+            q.append(
                 {
                     "phase": phase,
                     "status": status,
@@ -699,9 +851,17 @@ class BingxVenueAdapter(VenueAdapter):
         )
         legacy = self._legacy_intent(intent, kernel=getattr(self, "_kernel_ref", None))
         submitted = replace(intent, target_size=float(legacy.target_size))
+        # ── PRE-ACK ── safe to roll back if this raises.
         receipt = self._call_backend("submit_intent", legacy)
+        # ── POINT OF NO RETURN ── order is LIVE; see submit_async().
+        try:
             events = self._events_from_submit(submitted, receipt, None, None)
             ack_row = dict(getattr(receipt, "raw_ack", {}) or {})
+        except Exception as exc:
+            raise VenuePostAckError(
+                f"post-ack failure after venue accepted the order: {exc}",
+                receipt=receipt,
+            ) from exc
         # Post-ack: the order is LIVE at the venue. Telemetry is observability,
         # never a veto — an exception escaping here reaches the caller's submit
         # guard, which synthesises a REJECTED event and rolls the FSM back while
@@ -757,9 +917,20 @@ class BingxVenueAdapter(VenueAdapter):
         )
         legacy = self._legacy_intent(intent, kernel=getattr(self, "_kernel_ref", None))
         submitted = replace(intent, target_size=float(legacy.target_size))
+        # ── PRE-ACK ── an exception here means the venue never took the order.
+        # Safe for the caller to roll the FSM back.
         receipt = await self.backend.submit_intent(legacy)
+        # ── POINT OF NO RETURN ── the order is LIVE at the venue from here on.
+        # Nothing below may reach the caller as a bare exception: that channel
+        # means "no order exists", and the caller rolls back to flat on it.
+        try:
             events = self._events_from_submit(submitted, receipt, None, None)
             ack_row = dict(getattr(receipt, "raw_ack", {}) or {})
+        except Exception as exc:
+            raise VenuePostAckError(
+                f"post-ack failure after venue accepted the order: {exc}",
+                receipt=receipt,
+            ) from exc
         # Post-ack: the order is LIVE at the venue. Telemetry is observability,
         # never a veto — an exception escaping here reaches the caller's submit
         # guard, which synthesises a REJECTED event and rolls the FSM back while

prod/clean_arch/dita_v2/rust_backend.py

@@ -43,6 +43,7 @@ from .projection import HazelcastProjection
 from .projection import build_projection
 from .utils import json_safe
 from .venue import VenueAdapter
+from .venue import VenuePostAckError
 from .zinc_plane import InMemoryZincPlane, ZincPlane
 
 
@@ -848,12 +849,23 @@ class ExecutionKernel:
         if outcome.accepted and intent.action in {KernelCommandType.ENTER, KernelCommandType.EXIT}:
             try:
                 emitted_events = self.venue.submit(intent)
+            except VenuePostAckError as _post_ack_exc:
+                # Order is LIVE at the venue: unknown != flat. No rollback, no
+                # synthetic REJECT — the E-feed FILL / reconcile settles the slot.
+                # (See the async path below and venue.VenuePostAckError.)
+                import logging as _log
+                _log.getLogger(__name__).critical(
+                    "FIX(rust_backend): POST-ACK venue failure (%s) slot=%d action=%s — "
+                    "ORDER IS LIVE. NOT rolling back; awaiting E-feed FILL / reconcile.",
+                    _post_ack_exc, intent.slot_id, intent.action.value,
+                )
+                emitted_events = list(getattr(_post_ack_exc, "events", []) or [])
             except Exception as _submit_exc:
-                # venue.submit() failed (e.g. BingX timeout). The Rust FSM already
+                # PRE-ACK: venue.submit() failed (e.g. BingX timeout). The Rust FSM
-                # advanced to ORDER_REQUESTED / ENTRY_WORKING with no corresponding
+                # already advanced to ORDER_REQUESTED / ENTRY_WORKING with no
-                # exchange order. Feed a synthetic REJECTED event so the FSM rolls
+                # corresponding exchange order. Feed a synthetic REJECTED event so the
-                # back to IDLE — otherwise the slot is stranded and every subsequent
+                # FSM rolls back to IDLE — otherwise the slot is stranded and every
-                # ENTER with a different trade_id hits SLOT_BUSY forever.
+                # subsequent ENTER with a different trade_id hits SLOT_BUSY forever.
                 import logging as _log
                 _log.getLogger(__name__).error(
                     "venue.submit failed (%s) — feeding synthetic REJECTED to roll back FSM slot=%d action=%s",
@@ -1004,7 +1016,28 @@ class ExecutionKernel:
                     emitted_events = await submit_async(intent)
                 else:
                     emitted_events = self.venue.submit(intent)   # fallback: mock/test venue
+            except VenuePostAckError as _post_ack_exc:
+                # THE ORDER IS LIVE AT THE VENUE. This is UNKNOWN, not failure —
+                # and unknown is NEVER flat. Rolling the FSM back here is what
+                # orphaned 6 live SHORTs on 2026-07-13: the venue kept the
+                # positions while the kernel believed it was flat, so no SL/TP/
+                # ADVSL could ever fire on them.
+                #
+                # Emit NO synthetic event: leave the slot in its working state and
+                # let execution truth settle it — the E-feed delivers FULL_FILL
+                # from the account stream independently of this call path.
+                import logging as _log
+                _log.getLogger(__name__).critical(
+                    "FIX(rust_backend): POST-ACK venue failure (%s) slot=%d action=%s — "
+                    "ORDER IS LIVE. NOT rolling back (unknown != flat); awaiting E-feed "
+                    "FILL / reconcile to settle the slot.",
+                    _post_ack_exc, intent.slot_id, intent.action.value,
+                )
+                emitted_events = list(getattr(_post_ack_exc, "events", []) or [])
             except Exception as _submit_exc:
+                # PRE-ACK failure (timeout, connection refused, rejected request):
+                # the venue never took the order, so the FSM must roll back or the
+                # slot is stranded in ORDER_REQUESTED forever.
                 import logging as _log
                 _log.getLogger(__name__).error(
                     "venue.submit_async failed (%s) — synthetic REJECTED, FSM rollback slot=%d action=%s",

prod/clean_arch/dita_v2/venue.py

@@ -19,6 +19,27 @@ from .contracts import (
 from .exchange_event import ExchangeEvent
 
 
+class VenuePostAckError(Exception):
+    """Raised when submit fails AFTER the venue has already accepted the order.
+
+    THE POINT OF NO RETURN. A plain exception out of submit()/submit_async() is
+    ambiguous: it may mean "the venue never got the order" (safe to roll the FSM
+    back to IDLE) or "the venue filled it and a line below blew up" (rolling back
+    is catastrophic — the venue keeps the position while the kernel believes it is
+    flat). On 2026-07-13 a post-ack TypeError took the first interpretation and
+    orphaned 6 live SHORTs.
+
+    Post-ack failure is NOT failure. It is UNKNOWN — and unknown is never flat.
+    Callers MUST NOT synthesise a REJECTED event for this error: leave the slot in
+    its working state and let the E-feed FILL / reconcile settle the truth.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, message: str, *, receipt: Any = None, events: Optional[List[VenueEvent]] = None):
+        super().__init__(message)
+        self.receipt = receipt
+        self.events = events or []
+
+
 class VenueAdapter(Protocol):
     """Abstract venue adapter used by the kernel."""
 

prod/docs/BUGCLASS_INDETERMINATE_OUTCOME_20260713.md

@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+# Bug class: **indeterminate-outcome collapse**
+### "not done" is NOT the same as "tried and failed" — and neither is "tried, outcome unknown"
+
+**Status:** doctrine. Codebase-wide sweep assigned to codex.
+**Discovered by:** HJ, from the 2026-07-13 orphan incident.
+
+---
+
+## The formal statement
+
+Any operation carrying an **external side effect** (venue order, cancel, transfer,
+ClickHouse insert, journal write, shm publish) has **three** terminal outcomes, not two:
+
+| Outcome | Effect exists? | Is rollback sound? |
+|---|---|---|
+| **NOT_ATTEMPTED** — we never issued it | provably no | **YES** |
+| **ATTEMPTED_REFUSED** — the peer *proved* it refused (venue error code, validation reject) | provably no | **YES** |
+| **ATTEMPTED_INDETERMINATE** — issued, outcome unknown | **maybe** | **NO — NEVER** |
+
+The bug is **collapsing three states into two**: treating INDETERMINATE as FAILED, and
+then applying a rollback that is only sound for the first two.
+
+**The invariant that gets violated:** the *effect* (the venue order) and the *record*
+(the kernel FSM) are **not atomic**. Any failure between them leaves them divergent. This
+is the classic dual-write / write-then-record problem, and it has exactly one correct
+answer: **when you cannot prove the effect did not happen, you must not assert that it
+didn't. You must reconcile against the authoritative source** (the venue).
+
+**Unknown is not flat. Unknown is not failed. Unknown is UNKNOWN.**
+
+---
+
+## How it presented on 2026-07-13
+
+```python
+# bingx_venue.submit_async()
+receipt = await backend.submit_intent(legacy)   # <-- POINT OF NO RETURN: order is LIVE
+events  = self._events_from_submit(...)         #     bookkeeping
+self._publish_telemetry(..., order_id=...)      # <-- TypeError (signature skew)
+return events                                   #     never reached
+```
+```python
+# rust_backend, the caller
+try:
+    emitted_events = await submit_async(intent)
+except Exception:                                # <-- ONE channel for BOTH meanings
+    -> synthetic REJECTED -> FSM rollback to IDLE
+```
+
+`submit_async` signals *"the venue never took the order"* by **raising**, and signals
+*"a bug fired somewhere inside me"* by **raising**. Same channel. The caller cannot tell
+them apart, so it takes the interpretation written for the timeout case and asserts a
+fact it cannot know: *no order exists*.
+
+The venue kept 6 SHORT positions. The kernel believed it was flat. No SL, TP, MAX_HOLD or
+ADVSL can protect a position the kernel does not know it holds — which is why **execution
+truth (tier B) outranks capital preservation (tier C)** in `UV_EXEC_PRIORITY_LADDER`.
+
+Telemetry never had a "veto". It **hijacked the failure channel**. It was the bullet;
+`except Exception -> assume not-done` is the gun. *Any* post-ack line — a log call, a dict
+build, an events-builder edge case — would have produced the identical 6 orphans.
+
+---
+
+## THE SECOND INSTANCE — older, still live, and worse
+
+The "safe" pre-ack branch is **itself an instance of the same bug**:
+
+```python
+except Exception as _submit_exc:
+    # venue.submit() failed (e.g. BingX timeout) ... feed a synthetic REJECTED
+```
+
+**A timeout is the definition of INDETERMINATE.** The request may have reached BingX and
+filled. Rolling back to IDLE on a timeout asserts "no order exists" on exactly the
+evidence that cannot support it. This has been in the code far longer than tonight's skew
+and produces orphans on every venue timeout.
+
+Only a **proven** refusal may roll back:
+- connection refused / DNS failure *before the request was sent* → NOT_ATTEMPTED ✔
+- venue returned an explicit rejection code (validation, insufficient margin) → REFUSED ✔
+- **timeout, connection reset, 5xx, unparseable response → INDETERMINATE ✘ must reconcile**
+
+---
+
+## The fix pattern (minimally invasive — no new seams, no re-architecture)
+
+1. **Mark the point of no return.** Everything after the side-effect call is fenced; it
+   may not reach the caller through the bare-exception channel.
+2. **Type the channel.** `VenuePostAckError` (added, `venue.py`) carries the receipt and
+   means *the effect exists*. Pre-ack failures keep raising normally.
+3. **Callers branch on it.** `rust_backend` catches `VenuePostAckError` first: **no
+   synthetic REJECT, no rollback**. Leave the slot in its working state and let execution
+   truth settle it — the E-feed delivers `FULL_FILL` from the account stream independently.
+4. **Non-critical code cannot use the failure channel at all.** Telemetry is off the exec
+   path entirely (bounded-memory, lossless spill lane).
+5. **Indeterminate ⇒ reconcile.** Never rollback. Query the venue; it is the authority.
+
+No architectural change. No new seam. One typed exception, one fence, one branch.
+
+---
+
+## The codebase-wide sweep (codex)
+
+**Search pattern:** any `try:` whose body performs an external side effect and whose
+`except` assumes the effect did not happen (rollback / mark-failed / synthesize-reject /
+blind-retry / "assume flat" / return default).
+
+Known/suspect sites:
+- `bingx_venue.submit / submit_async` ✔ fixed
+- `bingx_venue.cancel / cancel_async` — same shape, unaudited
+- `rust_backend` pre-ack timeout branch — **BUG, live** (see above)
+- `EKBridge.mirror_future`, `e_feed._publish_converted` — failure of the E→K mirror
+- `ch_writer` / journal lane inserts — "insert failed" vs "insert maybe landed" (duplicates)
+- `ExecutionRouter` maker/taker requote + amend paths
+- promotion bridge (`uv.promotion`) receipt handling
+- any `except Exception: pass` / `return None` / `return False` after an I/O call
+
+**Every site must answer one question:** *can this except-branch PROVE the effect did not
+happen?* If no → it must not assert absence. Reconcile or escalate to UNKNOWN.
+
+---
+
+## Tests demanded (nuclear grade)
+
+1. **Fault-injection matrix.** For each side-effecting call: inject an exception at
+   **every statement after the effect** (parametrize over injection index) and assert the
+   kernel **never** concludes the effect is absent. This is the test that would have
+   caught tonight's bug at *any* of the post-ack lines, not just the telemetry one.
+2. **Timeout is indeterminate.** Venue times out *after* the exchange filled → assert NO
+   rollback, assert reconcile is triggered, assert the position is adopted, not orphaned.
+3. **Property/fuzz.** Random interleavings of {ack, no-ack, timeout, post-ack raise,
+   partial fill, duplicate ack}; invariant: `kernel_believes_flat ⇒ venue_is_flat`. This
+   invariant is the whole ballgame; it must never be violated for any interleaving.
+4. **Signature-skew guard.** `inspect.signature().bind()` over every call site of every
+   telemetry/journal helper — a pure binding test that survives re-vendoring.
+5. **Losslessness.** Telemetry/journal lanes: wedge the sink, flood N records, assert
+   `dropped == 0` and `on_disk + in_memory == N`, and assert memory stays bounded.
+6. **Mutation litmus.** Remove each fence → the corresponding test must go RED. If
+   removing the guard keeps the suite green, the test is theatre.