docs(handover): Fable EOD 2026-07-13 — live state + full TODO ladder

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

prod/docs/HANDOVER_20260713_FABLE_EOD.md

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+# HANDOVER — Fable, 2026-07-13 EOD (token-limit divert)
+
+Written at operator order at 96% token budget. State + ALL open TODOs as Fable sees them.
+
+## LIVE STATE (as of 16:15 CEST)
+
+- **F5 RUNNING**: PID 237222, `/root/dolphin_logs/uv_prime_flight5.log`, launched via
+  `uv_prime_launch5.sh` (setsid-detached). Open position at writing: TRXUSDT SHORT
+  5108cf2b entry 0.3255 qty 3038 (~−0.20% at 16:13).
+- **GATE RELAXED ON PURPOSE**: `DOLPHIN_VOL_P60_THRESHOLD=0.00001` (launcher line 26).
+  **Operator order 2026-07-13: DO NOT TIGHTEN YET.** Sequence: (1) characterize exit
+  MECHANICS with relaxed gate = high sample rate on VST, (2) vol-gate parity
+  (restore 0.00026414) as the LAST rung.
+- Exit mechanics observed today: 7 ADVSL losers (−0.05..−0.51%), **1 FIXED_TP winner
+  ADAUSDT +0.4416% @15:02** (vs 0.20 configured → overshoot-study datapoint), earlier
+  4 ADVSL losers (MFE ≤ +0.013%). Heartbeat healthy: polls ~15k, tick lane live.
+
+## COMMITTED TODAY (all local — NOT pushed)
+
+- `bdc54fb` (canonical /mnt): INDETERMINATE submit fix — unknown is never flat.
+  http.py effect classes, bingx_direct point-lookup (NOT a reconcile), venue.py
+  VenueIndeterminateError(VenuePostAckError), bingx_venue escalation, 14 tests.
+  Suite 3416 passed/19 skip/3 xfail.
+- `54cd5d5` (uv-wt refactor): vendored side + VENDOR.lock repin. Sync gate refused
+  93v92 → ported test UP to canonical, proved zero .py drift, then --force. Drift
+  verify green, dita_v2 collection gate green.
+- `f2e7d41`: POST_FINISH research entries (dvol sweep × regime, cadence effects,
+  streak wave-phase).
+- TODO: `h5i share push` both repos; Gitea push (broken Windows post-receive hook,
+  memory: violet_unified_repo).
+
+## IN-FLIGHT (next command, prepped)
+
+**Apply UV DDL**: `dolphin_uv.max_hold_ingress` + `tp_exit_ingress` DDLs EXIST at
+`prod/clickhouse/uv/04_max_hold_ingress.sql` + `05_tp_exit_ingress.sql` but were
+NEVER APPLIED → F5 404s every scan, mechanics data spool-only
+(`/root/dolphin_logs/uv_journal_spool.jsonl`, 1,576 rows).
+Run: `cd /root/uv-wt/refactor && python3 prod/clickhouse/uv/apply_uv_ddl.py`
+(idempotent, IF NOT EXISTS). Then: confirm 404s stop next scan; check whether the
+journal lane auto-drains the spool or rows need manual JSONEachRow replay
+(journal.py:328 — fsynced-sidecar ack + spool compaction; verify it replays old rows).
+
+## TODO LADDER (Fable's full view)
+
+1. **UV DDL apply + spool drain** (above). Unblocks the mechanics characterization
+   the relaxed gate is paying for.
+2. **Vol-gate parity restore = LAST rung** (operator sequence): launcher line 26 →
+   0.00026414, restart F5 **while flat** (TPSL REHYDRATE exists but don't test it
+   with money). Then tag the relax-window trades DO_NOT_ACCOUNT for the parity
+   ledger (window = F5 launch→restore; ADA winner + all ADVSL losers included).
+3. **ADVSL staleness guard**: `_last_price` has NO max-age — if fetches fail after
+   first success, ADVSL decides on a fossil price forever (tpsl_ticker.py on_bar
+   reads it; only never-fetched case falls back to entry). Fix = stamp age, skip
+   ADVSL on stale (like no-price). Small, mutation-testable. Awaiting go.
+4. **Clock findings (research done, delivered)**: SL/TP evaluate on 1s tick
+   (UV_TPSL_POLL_S, floor 0.5 in code); TP/SL *modulation* recomputed per tick via
+   set_tp_resolver (tpsl_ticker.py:167 → brain_tpsl.py:334); ADVSL/MAX_HOLD on scan
+   bar ~11.06s vs BLUE NG7 pinned 5.97s → all bar-denominated constants stretched
+   1.85× in wall-clock. OPEN QUESTION: bar constants = hold-TIME or evidence-COUNT
+   (N OBF observations)? Decides time-normalize vs cadence-match. Fable rec: attack
+   WHY UV scan is 11.06s (cadence-match beats constant-scaling for parity).
+5. **OBF freshness (post-parity)**: ingress provider called per tick but returns
+   scan-stale snapshot; OBF native cadence ~300-500ms — refresh ingress at native
+   rate once parity certified. No structural blocker.
+6. **Venue-side catastrophic SL backstop**: BingX placeOrder supports attached
+   stopLoss/takeProfit JSON on SAME request (workingType MARK_PRICE). Pro pattern =
+   software-primary + venue-resident wide backstop (~2× software SL) as dead-man's
+   brake (our HZ silent-death history!). Cost: FSM must accept a non-kernel-originated
+   exit fill via E-feed; attached-stop auto-cancel on close needs VST verification
+   (orphan-order risk). Our serializer lacks the attach params (execution.py has
+   standalone conditionals only). Belongs in exec-router workstream.
+7. **Exec friction (POST_FINISH SEQUENCED, first upon parity)**: adjudicate PINK
+   ExecutionRouter (maker/taker policy, 265 tests) ∪ BLUE SmartPlacer (OB-aware
+   placement) vs prod/docs/BingX_FILL_CHARACTERIZATION_AND_ADVANTAGES.md. Router
+   under 1s steel clock = maker orders actually managed.
+8. **Indeterminate sweep codebase-wide** (belled to codex, napped): cancel/
+   cancel_async, EKBridge, e_feed, ch_writer, ExecutionRouter, promotion receipts,
+   every `except: pass` after venue I/O — same NOT_ATTEMPTED/REFUSED/INDETERMINATE
+   triage as bdc54fb.
+9. **TIER-B inversion** (open): asex_kernel_executor.py:319 enqueues account/fill
+   at P4 below ENTER P3 — execution truth must outrank entries.
+10. **Research studies** (logged POST_FINISH): dvol sweep × regime (PREREQ: persist
+    per-trade dvol at entry — same field DDSketch self-tuning gate needs); cadence
+    effects; streak wave-phase vs vel_div. TP-overshoot split (cadence-luck vs
+    modulation): measure exit_pct − tp_effective_pct on BLUE TP exits; today's ADA
+    +0.44 is a UV datapoint.
+11. **Missing venue truth**: dolphin_uv.exec_journal etc. fine; but relax-window
+    trades need DO_NOT_ACCOUNT tags before parity ledger consumes them.
+
+## DOCTRINE REMINDERS (cost blood today)
+
+- Never edit vendored copies; sync-gate REFUSE = port UP + prove zero drift before
+  --force. New test files must exist CANONICALLY first.
+- Rollback only on proven absence: NOT_ATTEMPTED/REFUSED yes, INDETERMINATE never.
+- Argos MCP unreachable this session; verify_no_fake_done done by hand (no stubs).