2772 lines
71 KiB
YAML
2772 lines
71 KiB
YAML
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# Event Catalogue — Complete per SENTIMENT_ANALYSIS_ENGINE_SPEC.md Section 5.2
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# Version: 2.0.0
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# 150+ event types across 12 categories
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events:
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# ============================================================
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# 5.2.1 Tokenomics (Supply Events) — 16 types
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# ============================================================
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- event_type: "token_unlock"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_shock"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 25
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impact_duration_minutes: 240
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
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is_scheduled: true
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "lock.?up.*vesting"
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- "(unl|releas).*token.*circulat"
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- "tokens.*locked.*release"
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- "vested"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.95
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half_life_minutes: 720
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positive_signals:
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- "scheduled"
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- "small"
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negative_signals:
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- "large"
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- "unexpected"
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- event_type: "token_burn"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_reduction"
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impact_direction: "positive"
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base_impact: 30
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impact_duration_minutes: 360
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
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is_scheduled: true
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "burn.*token"
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- "token.*burn"
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- "buyback.*burn"
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- "permanent.*remove.*supply"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.98
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half_life_minutes: 1440
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positive_signals:
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- "quarterly"
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- "regular"
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negative_signals:
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- "small"
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- event_type: "token_mint"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_increase"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 35
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impact_duration_minutes: 120
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "mint.*token"
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- "new.*token.*issued"
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- "inflation.*token"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.90
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half_life_minutes: 240
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negative_signals:
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- "unexpected"
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- "large"
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- event_type: "inflation_acceleration"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_increase"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 20
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impact_duration_minutes: 720
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "inflation.*increase"
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- "emission.*rate.*up"
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- "supply.*grow.*fast"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.95
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half_life_minutes: 1440
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- event_type: "inflation_deceleration"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_reduction"
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impact_direction: "positive"
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base_impact: 25
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impact_duration_minutes: 720
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "inflation.*decrease"
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- "emission.*rate.*down"
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- "supply.*grow.*slow"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.98
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half_life_minutes: 1440
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- event_type: "supply_shock_large"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_shock"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 80
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impact_duration_minutes: 1440
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "market-wide"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "massive.*supply.*increase"
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- "supply.*shock"
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- "unexpected.*inflation"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.80
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half_life_minutes: 2880
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- event_type: "staking_reward_claim"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "staking"
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impact_direction: "neutral"
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base_impact: 5
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impact_duration_minutes: 60
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.60
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is_scheduled: true
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "staking.*reward"
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- "claim.*reward"
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- "distribution.*reward"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 1.0
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half_life_minutes: 60
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- event_type: "staking_slashing"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "staking"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 60
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impact_duration_minutes: 180
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "slash.*validator"
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- "slashed.*stake"
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- "penalty.*validator"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.85
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half_life_minutes: 360
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- event_type: "bridge_liquidity_withdrawal"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "liquidity"
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impact_direction: "mixed"
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base_impact: 30
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impact_duration_minutes: 180
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "bridge.*withdraw"
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- "liquidity.*bridg.*out"
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- "cross.?chain.*withdraw"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.90
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half_life_minutes: 360
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- event_type: "liquidity_pool_deposit"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "liquidity"
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impact_direction: "positive"
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base_impact: 15
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impact_duration_minutes: 120
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "deposit.*liquidity"
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- "add.*liquidity"
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- "provide.*liquidity"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.95
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half_life_minutes: 240
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- event_type: "liquidity_pool_withdrawal"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "liquidity"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 25
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impact_duration_minutes: 120
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "withdraw.*liquidity"
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- "remove.*liquidity"
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- "pull.*liquidity"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.90
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half_life_minutes: 240
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- event_type: "supply_cap_change"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_policy"
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impact_direction: "mixed"
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base_impact: 35
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impact_duration_minutes: 1440
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "supply.*cap.*change"
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- "max.*supply.*change"
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- "hard.*cap.*change"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.92
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half_life_minutes: 2880
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- event_type: "treasury_allocation"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "treasury"
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impact_direction: "positive"
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base_impact: 20
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impact_duration_minutes: 360
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "treasury.*allocat"
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- "fund.*treasury"
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- "grant.*treasury"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.95
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half_life_minutes: 720
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- event_type: "vesting_schedule_change"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "vesting"
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impact_direction: "mixed"
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base_impact: 25
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impact_duration_minutes: 1440
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "vesting.*schedule.*change"
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- "vest.*period.*change"
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- "unlock.*schedule.*change"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.93
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half_life_minutes: 2880
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- event_type: "token_migration"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "migration"
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impact_direction: "mixed"
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base_impact: 30
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impact_duration_minutes: 2880
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
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is_scheduled: true
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "token.*migrat"
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- "swap.*token"
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- "migrate.*chain"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.95
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half_life_minutes: 4320
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- event_type: "supply_reduction_announcement"
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category: "tokenomics"
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subcategory: "supply_reduction"
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impact_direction: "positive"
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base_impact: 40
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impact_duration_minutes: 4320
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "supply.*reduction.*announc"
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- "burn.*announc"
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- "buyback.*announc"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.97
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half_life_minutes: 4320
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# ============================================================
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# 5.2.2 Security & Risk — 13 types
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# ============================================================
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- event_type: "security_hack"
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category: "security"
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subcategory: "hack"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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base_impact: 95
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impact_duration_minutes: 2880
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "hack"
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- "exploit"
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- "drain.*fund"
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- "stolen.*fund"
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- "breach.*protocol"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.70
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half_life_minutes: 4320
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negative_signals:
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- "large"
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- "user.*fund.*lost"
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- "protocol.*insolvent"
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- event_type: "security_exploit"
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category: "security"
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subcategory: "exploit"
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impact_direction: "negative"
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||
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base_impact: 85
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impact_duration_minutes: 1440
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "exploit"
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- "vulnerab.*exploit"
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- "bug.*exploit"
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decay_curve:
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initial_drop: 0.75
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half_life_minutes: 2880
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- event_type: "security_audit_pass"
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category: "security"
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subcategory: "audit"
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impact_direction: "positive"
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||
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base_impact: 20
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||
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impact_duration_minutes: 1440
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
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is_scheduled: false
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asset_scope: "specific"
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trigger_patterns:
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- "audit.*pass"
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- "audit.*complete.*no.*issue"
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- "security.*review.*pass"
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decay_curve:
|
||
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initial_drop: 0.98
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half_life_minutes: 2880
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- event_type: "security_audit_fail"
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category: "security"
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subcategory: "audit"
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impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
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base_impact: 70
|
||
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impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
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is_scheduled: false
|
||
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asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
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trigger_patterns:
|
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- "audit.*fail"
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- "audit.*found.*vulnerab"
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- "critical.*vulnerab.*found"
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decay_curve:
|
||
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initial_drop: 0.80
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half_life_minutes: 2880
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- event_type: "rug_pull"
|
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category: "security"
|
||
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subcategory: "rug_pull"
|
||
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impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
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base_impact: 100
|
||
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impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
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typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
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is_scheduled: false
|
||
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asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
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trigger_patterns:
|
||
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- "rug.*pull"
|
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- "exit.*scam"
|
||
|
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- "dev.*fled"
|
||
|
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- "liquidity.*pulled"
|
||
|
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decay_curve:
|
||
|
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initial_drop: 0.50
|
||
|
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half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
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|
||
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- event_type: "exit_scam"
|
||
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category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "exit_scam"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 100
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "exit.*scam"
|
||
|
|
- "team.*disappear"
|
||
|
|
- "abandon.*project"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.50
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "bridge_hack"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "bridge_hack"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 90
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "bridge.*hack"
|
||
|
|
- "cross.?chain.*exploit"
|
||
|
|
- "bridge.*drain"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "phishing_attack"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "phishing"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 600
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "phishing"
|
||
|
|
- "fake.*site"
|
||
|
|
- "phish.*wallet"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "ddos_attack"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "ddos"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "ddos"
|
||
|
|
- "dos.*attack"
|
||
|
|
- "service.*unavailable"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "key_compromise"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "key_compromise"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 80
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "private.*key.*compromis"
|
||
|
|
- "key.*leak"
|
||
|
|
- "seed.*phrase.*leak"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "smart_contract_upgrade_failed"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "upgrade_failed"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 55
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "upgrade.*fail"
|
||
|
|
- "contract.*upgrade.*fail"
|
||
|
|
- "deploy.*fail"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "oracle_manipulation"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "oracle"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 75
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "oracle.*manipulat"
|
||
|
|
- "price.*feed.*manipulat"
|
||
|
|
- "oracle.*attack"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_attack"
|
||
|
|
category: "security"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "governance"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "governance.*attack"
|
||
|
|
- "vote.*manipulat"
|
||
|
|
- "takeover.*dao"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.3 Technology & Development — 16 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "mainnet_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "launch"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "mainnet.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "mainnet.*live"
|
||
|
|
- "launch.*mainnet"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "testnet_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "launch"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "testnet.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "testnet.*live"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "major_protocol_upgrade"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "upgrade"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "protocol.*upgrade"
|
||
|
|
- "major.*upgrade"
|
||
|
|
- "network.*upgrade"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "hard_fork"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "fork"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "hard.*fork"
|
||
|
|
- "chain.*split"
|
||
|
|
- "fork.*activat"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "soft_fork"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "fork"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "soft.*fork"
|
||
|
|
- "backward.*compat.*upgrade"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "api_deprecation"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "api"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 3600
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "api.*deprecat"
|
||
|
|
- "endpoint.*remov"
|
||
|
|
- "deprecat.*api"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "bug_fix_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "bug_fix"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 10
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "bug.*fix"
|
||
|
|
- "fixed.*bug"
|
||
|
|
- "patch.*releas"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "performance_improvement"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "performance"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "performance.*improv"
|
||
|
|
- "optimiz.*throughput"
|
||
|
|
- "latency.*reduc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "new_feature_release"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "feature"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "new.*feature"
|
||
|
|
- "feature.*releas"
|
||
|
|
- "launch.*feature"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.96
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "sdk_release"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "sdk"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 3600
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "sdk.*releas"
|
||
|
|
- "developer.*kit.*releas"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "mobile_app_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "app"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "mobile.*app.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "app.*store.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "ios.*android.*app"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "layer2_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "layer2"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "layer.?2.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "l2.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "rollup.*launch"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cross_chain_integration"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "interop"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cross.?chain.*integrat"
|
||
|
|
- "interop.*integrat"
|
||
|
|
- "bridge.*integrat"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "smart_contract_deployment"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "deployment"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "contract.*deploy"
|
||
|
|
- "deploy.*contract"
|
||
|
|
- "new.*contract"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "audit_completion"
|
||
|
|
category: "technology"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "audit"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "audit.*complet"
|
||
|
|
- "audit.*final"
|
||
|
|
- "security.*audit.*done"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.4 Governance — 10 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_proposal_new"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "proposal"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "proposal.*new"
|
||
|
|
- "new.*proposal"
|
||
|
|
- "governance.*proposal"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_proposal_passed"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "proposal_passed"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "proposal.*pass"
|
||
|
|
- "proposal.*approv"
|
||
|
|
- "vote.*pass"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_proposal_failed"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "proposal_failed"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "proposal.*fail"
|
||
|
|
- "proposal.*reject"
|
||
|
|
- "vote.*fail"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_vote_large_whale"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "whale_vote"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "whale.*vote"
|
||
|
|
- "large.*holder.*vote"
|
||
|
|
- "concentrated.*vote"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_attack"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "attack"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "governance.*attack"
|
||
|
|
- "vote.*manipulat"
|
||
|
|
- "takeover.*dao"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "dao_treasury_deployment"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "treasury"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "dao.*treasury.*deploy"
|
||
|
|
- "treasury.*deploy"
|
||
|
|
- "fund.*deploy.*dao"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_delay_change"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "delay"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "timelock.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "governance.*delay.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "voting.*delay.*change"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "parameter_change_proposal"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "parameter_change"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "parameter.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "config.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "protocol.*param.*change"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "emergency_governance_action"
|
||
|
|
category: "governance"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "emergency"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "emergency.*governance"
|
||
|
|
- "emergency.*action"
|
||
|
|
- "emergency.*proposal"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.5 Financial Performance (Traditional) — 19 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "earnings_beat"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "earnings"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "earnings.*beat"
|
||
|
|
- "beat.*earnings"
|
||
|
|
- "exceed.*earnings"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "earnings_miss"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "earnings"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 55
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "earnings.*miss"
|
||
|
|
- "miss.*earnings"
|
||
|
|
- "below.*earnings"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "earnings_guidance_raise"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "guidance"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "guidance.*rais"
|
||
|
|
- "rais.*guidance"
|
||
|
|
- "outlook.*improv"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "earnings_guidance_cut"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "guidance"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "guidance.*cut"
|
||
|
|
- "cut.*guidance"
|
||
|
|
- "lower.*guidance"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "dividend_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "dividend"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "dividend.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "declare.*dividend"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "dividend_cut"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "dividend"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 45
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "dividend.*cut"
|
||
|
|
- "cut.*dividend"
|
||
|
|
- "reduc.*dividend"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "revenue_growth_acceleration"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "revenue"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "revenue.*growth.*accelerat"
|
||
|
|
- "revenue.*accelerat"
|
||
|
|
- "sales.*growth.*accelerat"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "revenue_decline"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "revenue"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "revenue.*decline"
|
||
|
|
- "revenue.*fall"
|
||
|
|
- "sales.*decline"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.92
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "analyst_upgrade"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "analyst"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "analyst.*upgrad"
|
||
|
|
- "upgrad.*rating"
|
||
|
|
- "price.*target.*rais"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "analyst_downgrade"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "analyst"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "analyst.*downgrad"
|
||
|
|
- "downgrad.*rating"
|
||
|
|
- "price.*target.*lower"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "analyst_initiate_buy"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "analyst"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "initiat.*buy"
|
||
|
|
- "initiat.*coverage.*buy"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "analyst_initiate_sell"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "analyst"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "initiat.*sell"
|
||
|
|
- "initiat.*coverage.*sell"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "insider_buying"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "insider"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "insider.*buy"
|
||
|
|
- "insider.*purchas"
|
||
|
|
- "executive.*buy"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "insider_selling"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "insider"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "insider.*sell"
|
||
|
|
- "insider.*sale"
|
||
|
|
- "executive.*sell"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "share_buyback_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "buyback"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "buyback.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "share.*repurchas"
|
||
|
|
- "repurchas.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "ipo_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "ipo"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "ipo.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "going.*public"
|
||
|
|
- "file.*ipo"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "spinoff_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "spinoff"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "spinoff.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "spin.*off.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "stock_split"
|
||
|
|
category: "financial"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "split"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "neutral"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 10
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "stock.*split"
|
||
|
|
- "split.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.6 Market Structure & Liquidity — 24 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "exchange_listing"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "listing"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "listing.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "listed.*on.*exchange"
|
||
|
|
- "exchange.*listing"
|
||
|
|
- "binance.*list"
|
||
|
|
- "coinbase.*list"
|
||
|
|
- "kraken.*list"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
positive_signals:
|
||
|
|
- "tier.?1"
|
||
|
|
- "major.*exchange"
|
||
|
|
negative_signals:
|
||
|
|
- "small.*exchange"
|
||
|
|
- "delisting.*risk"
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "exchange_delisting"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "delisting"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 85
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "delist"
|
||
|
|
- "delisting"
|
||
|
|
- "remove.*from.*exchange"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "exchange_halted_trading"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "halt"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "trading.*halt"
|
||
|
|
- "halt.*trading"
|
||
|
|
- "suspend.*trading"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "exchange_withdrawal_suspend"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "withdrawal_suspend"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "withdrawal.*suspend"
|
||
|
|
- "suspend.*withdrawal"
|
||
|
|
- "withdraw.*disabled"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "exchange_liquid_staking_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "liquid_staking"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "liquid.*staking.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "liquid.*stak.*token"
|
||
|
|
- "stk.*token.*launch"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "market_maker_incentive_program"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "mm_program"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "market.*maker.*incentive"
|
||
|
|
- "mm.*program"
|
||
|
|
- "liquidity.*incentive"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "whale_accumulation_large"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "whale"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "whale.*accumulat"
|
||
|
|
- "large.*holder.*accumulat"
|
||
|
|
- "smart.*money.*accumulat"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "whale_distribution_large"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "whale"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "whale.*distribut"
|
||
|
|
- "whale.*sell"
|
||
|
|
- "large.*holder.*sell"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "etf_approval"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "etf"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "etf.*approv"
|
||
|
|
- "spot.*etf.*approv"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*approv.*etf"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "etf_rejection"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "etf"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "etf.*reject"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*reject.*etf"
|
||
|
|
- "etf.*denied"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "etf_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "etf"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 65
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "etf.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "etf.*start.*trad"
|
||
|
|
- "new.*etf"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "etf_redemption_large"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "etf"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "etf.*redemption"
|
||
|
|
- "large.*redemption"
|
||
|
|
- "outflow.*etf"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.92
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "liquidity_migration"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "liquidity"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "liquidity.*migrat"
|
||
|
|
- "liquidity.*mov"
|
||
|
|
- "tvL.*shift"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "order_book_depth_change"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "order_book"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "order.*book.*depth"
|
||
|
|
- "depth.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "liquidity.*depth"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "funding_rate_spike"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "funding"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "funding.*rate.*spike"
|
||
|
|
- "funding.*rate.*surge"
|
||
|
|
- "high.*funding.*rate"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "open_interest_collapse"
|
||
|
|
category: "market_structure"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "open_interest"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "open.*interest.*collaps"
|
||
|
|
- "oi.*drop"
|
||
|
|
- "open.*interest.*plunge"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.7 Regulatory & Legal — 18 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "regulatory_ban"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "ban"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 90
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "ban.*crypto"
|
||
|
|
- "crypto.*ban"
|
||
|
|
- "prohibit.*crypto"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "regulatory_clampdown"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "clampdown"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 75
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "regulatory.*clampdown"
|
||
|
|
- "crackdown.*crypto"
|
||
|
|
- "regulator.*crackdown"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.75
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "regulatory_clarity_positive"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "clarity"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "regulatory.*clarity"
|
||
|
|
- "clear.*regulation"
|
||
|
|
- "friendly.*regulation"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "sec_investigation_announced"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "sec"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 80
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*investigat"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*prob"
|
||
|
|
- "investigat.*sec"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "sec_charges_filed"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "sec"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 95
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*charg"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*suit"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*enforc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "sec_settlement"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "sec"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*settle"
|
||
|
|
- "settle.*sec"
|
||
|
|
- "pay.*fine.*sec"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "sec_approval"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "sec"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*approv"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*clear"
|
||
|
|
- "sec.*greenlight"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cftc_statement"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "cftc"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cftc.*statement"
|
||
|
|
- "cftc.*comment"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cftc_enforcement_action"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "cftc"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 75
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cftc.*enforc"
|
||
|
|
- "cftc.*action"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.80
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "eu_mica_regulation_announced"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "mica"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "mica.*regulation"
|
||
|
|
- "eu.*regulation.*crypto"
|
||
|
|
- "european.*crypto.*law"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "tax_treatment_change"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "tax"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "tax.*treatment.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "crypto.*tax.*change"
|
||
|
|
- "tax.*crypto"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.93
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cbd_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "cbd"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cbd.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "central.*bank.*digital.*currenc"
|
||
|
|
- "digital.*currenc.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "sanctions_imposed"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "sanctions"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 85
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "sanction.*impos"
|
||
|
|
- "sanction.*crypto"
|
||
|
|
- "ofac.*sanction"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "legal_victory"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "legal"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "legal.*victor"
|
||
|
|
- "win.*lawsuit"
|
||
|
|
- "court.*rule.*favor"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "legal_defeat"
|
||
|
|
category: "regulatory"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "legal"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "legal.*defeat"
|
||
|
|
- "lose.*lawsuit"
|
||
|
|
- "court.*rule.*against"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.8 News & Media Dynamics — 10 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "mainstream_media_coverage"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "coverage"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "mainstream.*media"
|
||
|
|
- "major.*outlet"
|
||
|
|
- "wsj\\|bloomberg\\|reuters\\|ft\\|cnbc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "breaking_news"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "breaking"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "breaking.*news"
|
||
|
|
- "just.*in"
|
||
|
|
- "developing.*story"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "false_rumor_debunked"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "rumor"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "rumor.*debunk"
|
||
|
|
- "false.*rumor"
|
||
|
|
- "not.*true"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "rumor_unconfirmed"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "rumor"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.60
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "rumor"
|
||
|
|
- "unconfirm.*report"
|
||
|
|
- "speculat"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.92
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "celebrity_endorsement"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "celebrity"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 80
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "celebrity.*endors"
|
||
|
|
- "famous.*invest"
|
||
|
|
- "celebrity.*buy"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "celebrity_criticism"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "celebrity"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 70
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "celebrity.*critic"
|
||
|
|
- "famous.*critic"
|
||
|
|
- "celebrity.*against"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "influencer_promotion"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "influencer"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 55
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "influencer.*promot"
|
||
|
|
- "promot.*token"
|
||
|
|
- "shill"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "influencer_exposure"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "influencer"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 65
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "influencer.*expos"
|
||
|
|
- "influencer.*scam"
|
||
|
|
- "fake.*promot"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "viral_news_story"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "viral"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "viral"
|
||
|
|
- "trending"
|
||
|
|
- "viral.*story"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "media_narrative_shift"
|
||
|
|
category: "media"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "narrative"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "narrative.*shift"
|
||
|
|
- "narrative.*chang"
|
||
|
|
- "new.*narrative"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.9 Social & Community — 13 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "viral_social_post"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "viral"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "viral.*post"
|
||
|
|
- "viral.*tweet"
|
||
|
|
- "viral.*thread"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "social_media_attack"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "attack"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 65
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "attack.*social"
|
||
|
|
- "social.*attack"
|
||
|
|
- "fud.*campaign"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "community_vote_success"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "community"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "community.*vote.*success"
|
||
|
|
- "community.*approv"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "developer_ama"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "ama"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "ama"
|
||
|
|
- "ask.*me.*anything"
|
||
|
|
- "dev.*ama"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "developer_quit"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "dev_quit"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 50
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "developer.*quit"
|
||
|
|
- "dev.*leav"
|
||
|
|
- "core.*dev.*leav"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "community_proposal"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "proposal"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "community.*proposal"
|
||
|
|
- "proposal.*community"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "subreddit_pump_coordination"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "pump_coord"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 95
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "pump.*coordinat"
|
||
|
|
- "coordinat.*pump"
|
||
|
|
- "pump.*group"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "twitter_pump_coordination"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "pump_coord"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 90
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "twitter.*pump"
|
||
|
|
- "coordinat.*tweet"
|
||
|
|
- "hashtag.*pump"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "discord_pump_coordination"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "pump_coord"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 90
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "discord.*pump"
|
||
|
|
- "pump.*discord"
|
||
|
|
- "discord.*group.*pump"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "telegram_pump_coordination"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "pump_coord"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 90
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "telegram.*pump"
|
||
|
|
- "pump.*telegram"
|
||
|
|
- "tg.*pump"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "community_split"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "split"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "community.*split"
|
||
|
|
- "fork.*community"
|
||
|
|
- "split.*community"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.93
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "governance_forum_debate"
|
||
|
|
category: "social"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "debate"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.65
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "forum.*debate"
|
||
|
|
- "governance.*forum"
|
||
|
|
- "discussion.*proposal"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.10 DeFi-Specific — 11 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "yield_farming_apr_spike"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "yield"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "apr.*spike"
|
||
|
|
- "yield.*spike"
|
||
|
|
- "high.*apr"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "yield_farming_apr_crash"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "yield"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "apr.*crash"
|
||
|
|
- "yield.*crash"
|
||
|
|
- "apr.*drop"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.90
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "liquid_staking_token_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "liquid_staking"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 45
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "liquid.*staking.*token"
|
||
|
|
- "lst.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "staked.*token.*launch"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "protocol_insolvency_risk"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "insolvency"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 85
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "insolven.*risk"
|
||
|
|
- "protocol.*insolven"
|
||
|
|
- "bad.*debt"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.75
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "liquidations_spike"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "liquidation"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "liquidation.*spike"
|
||
|
|
- "mass.*liquidation"
|
||
|
|
- "cascade.*liquidation"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "collateral_factor_change"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "collateral"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "collateral.*factor.*chang"
|
||
|
|
- "ltv.*chang"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "borrow_rate_spike"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "borrow_rate"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "borrow.*rate.*spike"
|
||
|
|
- "borrow.*rate.*surge"
|
||
|
|
- "high.*borrow.*rate"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "dex_pool_imbalance"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "dex"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 360
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "pool.*imbalanc"
|
||
|
|
- "dex.*imbalanc"
|
||
|
|
- "pool.*skew"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "impermanent_loss_event"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "impermanent_loss"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "impermanent.*loss"
|
||
|
|
- "il.*event"
|
||
|
|
- "loss.*liquidity"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "yield_optimizer_launch"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "optimizer"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "yield.*optimiz.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "optimizer.*launch"
|
||
|
|
- "vault.*launch"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "vault_strategy_change"
|
||
|
|
category: "defi"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "vault"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.70
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "vault.*strategy.*chang"
|
||
|
|
- "strategy.*chang.*vault"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.11 Macroeconomic — 15 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "fed_rate_decision_cut"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "fed"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "fed.*cut.*rate"
|
||
|
|
- "rate.*cut.*fed"
|
||
|
|
- "fomc.*cut"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.98
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "fed_rate_decision_hike"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "fed"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 55
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "fed.*hike"
|
||
|
|
- "rate.*hike.*fed"
|
||
|
|
- "fomc.*hike"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.92
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cpi_release"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "cpi"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cpi.*releas"
|
||
|
|
- "inflation.*data"
|
||
|
|
- "consumer.*price.*index"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cpi_surprise_high"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "cpi"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cpi.*above"
|
||
|
|
- "cpi.*surprise.*high"
|
||
|
|
- "inflation.*hot"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.93
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "cpi_surprise_low"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "cpi"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "cpi.*below"
|
||
|
|
- "cpi.*surprise.*low"
|
||
|
|
- "inflation.*cool"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.96
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "gdp_release"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "gdp"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "gdp.*releas"
|
||
|
|
- "gross.*domestic.*product"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "employment_report"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "employment"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "employment.*report"
|
||
|
|
- "nonfarm.*payroll"
|
||
|
|
- "jobs.*report"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "inflation_report"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "inflation"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "inflation.*report"
|
||
|
|
- "pce.*releas"
|
||
|
|
- "core.*inflation"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "central_bank_speech_hawkish"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "central_bank"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "hawkish"
|
||
|
|
- "hawkish.*speech"
|
||
|
|
- "tighten.*policy"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "central_bank_speech_dovish"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "central_bank"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "dovish"
|
||
|
|
- "dovish.*speech"
|
||
|
|
- "eas.*policy"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.96
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "geopolitical_tension_escalation"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "geopolitical"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 60
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.90
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "geopolitical.*tension"
|
||
|
|
- "war.*risk"
|
||
|
|
- "conflict.*escalat"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.85
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "geopolitical_resolution"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "geopolitical"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "geopolitical.*resolv"
|
||
|
|
- "peace.*deal"
|
||
|
|
- "conflict.*end"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.95
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "pmi_release"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "pmi"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "pmi.*releas"
|
||
|
|
- "manufacturing.*pmi"
|
||
|
|
- "services.*pmi"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "retail_sales_release"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "retail_sales"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 720
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "retail.*sales"
|
||
|
|
- "retail.*spending"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "consumer_confidence"
|
||
|
|
category: "macro"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "confidence"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 15
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 1440
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "market-wide"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "consumer.*confidence"
|
||
|
|
- "confidence.*index"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 2880
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
# 5.2.12 Mergers, Acquisitions & Partnerships — 10 types
|
||
|
|
# ============================================================
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "m&a_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 35
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "m.?a.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "merger.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "acquisition.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "m&a_acquisition_announced"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "acquisition"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 40
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "acquir"
|
||
|
|
- "acquisition.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "buy.*company"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "m&a_tender_offer"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "tender_offer"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 45
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.85
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "tender.*offer"
|
||
|
|
- "tender.*bid"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "partnership_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "partnership"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 30
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "partnership.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "partner.*with"
|
||
|
|
- "collaborat.*with"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "strategic_investment"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "investment"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "strategic.*invest"
|
||
|
|
- "invest.*in.*protocol"
|
||
|
|
- "funding.*round"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "spin_off_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "spinoff"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "mixed"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: true
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "spinoff.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "spin.*off.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "bankruptcy_filing"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "bankruptcy"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 95
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.95
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "bankruptcy.*filing"
|
||
|
|
- "file.*bankruptcy"
|
||
|
|
- "chapter.*11"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.70
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 10080
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "default_announcement"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "default"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "negative"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 100
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.98
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "default.*announc"
|
||
|
|
- "miss.*payment"
|
||
|
|
- "fail.*to.*pay"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.60
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 20160
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "joint_venture"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "joint_venture"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 25
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.80
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "joint.*venture"
|
||
|
|
- "jv.*announc"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
- event_type: "licensing_agreement"
|
||
|
|
category: "m_and_a"
|
||
|
|
subcategory: "licensing"
|
||
|
|
impact_direction: "positive"
|
||
|
|
base_impact: 20
|
||
|
|
impact_duration_minutes: 4320
|
||
|
|
typical_confidence_floor: 0.75
|
||
|
|
is_scheduled: false
|
||
|
|
asset_scope: "specific"
|
||
|
|
trigger_patterns:
|
||
|
|
- "licens.*agreement"
|
||
|
|
- "licens.*deal"
|
||
|
|
decay_curve:
|
||
|
|
initial_drop: 0.97
|
||
|
|
half_life_minutes: 7200
|