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sentiment-engine/MALKHUT/malkhut/long_e2e_35h.py

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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
MALKHUT 3.5-Hour Instrumented E2E — 1K opponents, fill quality + slippage tracking.
Runs for ~3.5 hours with:
- 1,000 diverse opponents (randomized params)
- 9 assets × 30 scenarios = 270 scenarios per cycle
- HftBacktestCWM (PowerProbQueueModel + calibrated slippage)
- All order types exercised
- FILL QUALITY tracked per cycle (the core metric)
- SLIPPAGE REDUCTION tracked over time
- Improvement trends: does fill quality improve as CMA-ES learns?
- Periodic reports every 5 minutes with improvement deltas
Key questions answered:
Q1: Can we improve fill quality over cycles?
Q2: Can we reduce slippage over time?
Q3: How does 1K-opponent swarm affect fill dynamics vs 100-opponent?
Usage:
python -m malkhut.long_e2e_35h
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import math
import os
import random
import sys
import time
from collections import defaultdict
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
_HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
if _HERE not in sys.path:
sys.path.insert(0, _HERE)
from malkhut.state import (
AccountState, ActionKind, FulfilmentPolicyParams, MarketWorldState,
OrderType, PositionState, Side,
)
from malkhut.actions import FulfilmentAction, PlannedPolicy
from malkhut.cwm.hft_cwm import HftBacktestCWM
from malkhut.risk.gate import RiskGate
from malkhut.training.cma_trainer import (
CMAESTrainer, CMAParameterCodec, PolicyEvaluator,
ScenarioFactory, SelfPlayPool, PolicySnapshot,
)
from malkhut.training.selector import PerformanceMatrix, MarketRegime
from malkhut.counterparties import (
ToxicTakerPolicy, PassiveMakerPolicy, LatencyArbPolicy, NoiseTraderPolicy,
)
from malkhut.counterparties_extended import (
MomentumTakerPolicy, MeanReversionTakerPolicy, InventoryMarketMakerPolicy,
LiquidationFlowPolicy, StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy,
)
DURATION_S = int(3.5 * 3600) # 3.5 hours
ASSETS = ["BTCUSDT", "ETHUSDT", "SOLUSDT", "DOGEUSDT", "ADAUSDT",
"AVAXUSDT", "UNIUSDT", "LINKUSDT", "BNBUSDT"]
STEPS_PER_EPISODE = 20
SEED = 42
# ── 1K Opponent Swarm ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _build_swarm(n: int = 1000) -> tuple:
"""Build a swarm of n diverse opponents with randomized parameters."""
pool = [
lambda: ToxicTakerPolicy(sensitivity=random.uniform(0.1, 0.8)),
lambda: PassiveMakerPolicy(join_probability=random.uniform(0.3, 0.9)),
lambda: LatencyArbPolicy(lead_threshold=random.uniform(0.3, 0.7)),
lambda: NoiseTraderPolicy(),
lambda: MomentumTakerPolicy(threshold=random.uniform(0.1, 0.5)),
lambda: MeanReversionTakerPolicy(threshold=random.uniform(0.2, 0.8)),
lambda: InventoryMarketMakerPolicy(max_inventory=random.uniform(0.02, 0.15)),
lambda: LiquidationFlowPolicy(trigger_bps=random.uniform(20, 80)),
lambda: StaleQuoteAttackerPolicy(stale_threshold_s=random.uniform(2, 10)),
]
rng = random.Random(99)
return tuple(rng.choice(pool)() for _ in range(n))
SWARM = _build_swarm(1000)
print(f"Built 1K opponent swarm: {len(SWARM)} agents")
# ── Action generator ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _generate_action(state: MarketWorldState, rng: random.Random) -> FulfilmentAction:
r = rng.random()
if r < 0.12:
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
elif r < 0.28:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.5 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.CROSS_SPREAD, side, OrderType.LIMIT,
0, rng.uniform(0.01, 0.10), 50, time_in_force="IOC")
elif r < 0.48:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.55 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.PLACE, side, OrderType.LIMIT,
rng.randint(0, 5), rng.uniform(0.05, 0.25), 200, post_only=True)
elif r < 0.62:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.5 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.PLACE, side, OrderType.LIMIT,
rng.randint(0, 3), rng.uniform(0.05, 0.20), 200)
elif r < 0.72:
if state.open_orders:
oo = rng.choice(state.open_orders)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.CANCEL, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0,
cancel_order_id=oo.client_order_id)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
elif r < 0.82:
pos = state.account.positions.get(state.venue.symbol)
if pos and abs(pos.qty) > 0.001:
side = Side.SELL if pos.qty > 0 else Side.BUY
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.REDUCE, side, OrderType.MARKET,
0, rng.uniform(0.1, 0.5), 0, reduce_only=True)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
elif r < 0.92:
pos = state.account.positions.get(state.venue.symbol)
if pos and abs(pos.qty) > 0.001:
side = Side.SELL if pos.qty > 0 else Side.BUY
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.FULL_EXIT, side, OrderType.MARKET,
0, 1.0, 0, reduce_only=True)
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
else:
side = Side.BUY if rng.random() < 0.5 else Side.SELL
return FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.PLACE, side, OrderType.STOP_MARKET,
rng.randint(-5, 5), rng.uniform(0.01, 0.05), 200)
# ── Episode runner with fill quality tracking ─────────────────────────────────
def run_episode(cwm, scenario, params, steps, seed, rng, risk_gate):
state = scenario.initial_state
cp_policies = scenario.counterparties
fills = 0; noops = 0; cancels = 0; post_onlys = 0; reduce_onlys = 0
aggressive = 0; passive = 0; peak_eq = state.account.equity; max_dd = 0.0
ot_counts = defaultdict(int); tif_counts = defaultdict(int)
spreads = []; equities = []
# Fill quality tracking
fq_slippage_sum = 0.0
fq_expected_slippage_sum = 0.0
fq_price_improve_sum = 0.0
fq_adverse_sum = 0.0
fq_value_sum = 0.0
fq_filled_count = 0
fq_total_count = 0
for step in range(steps):
spread_bps = state.book.spread_bps if state.book.bids and state.book.asks else 0.0
spreads.append(spread_bps)
equities.append(state.account.equity)
action = _generate_action(state, rng)
cp_actions = tuple(cp.rollout_action(state, rng) for cp in cp_policies)
if risk_gate and action.kind != ActionKind.NOOP:
planned = PlannedPolicy(actions=(action,), probabilities=(1.0,),
selected_action=action, diagnostics={})
decision = risk_gate.validate(state, planned, params)
if not decision.approved:
action = FulfilmentAction(ActionKind.NOOP, None, None, 0, 0.0, 0)
fq_total_count += 1
prev_eq = state.account.equity
state = cwm.transition(state, (action, *cp_actions))
# Fill quality accumulation
if state.fill_quality:
fq = state.fill_quality
fq_slippage_sum += fq.slippage_bps
fq_expected_slippage_sum += fq.expected_slippage_bps
fq_price_improve_sum += fq.price_improvement_bps
fq_adverse_sum += fq.post_fill_adverse_bps
fq_value_sum += fq.fill_value_score
if fq.filled:
fq_filled_count += 1
eq = state.account.equity
peak_eq = max(peak_eq, eq)
dd = (peak_eq - eq) / max(peak_eq, 1e-12) * 10_000
max_dd = max(max_dd, dd)
ot = action.order_type.value if action.order_type else "NONE"
ot_counts[ot] += 1
tif_counts[getattr(action, 'time_in_force', 'GTC')] += 1
if action.kind == ActionKind.NOOP: noops += 1
elif action.kind in (ActionKind.CANCEL, ActionKind.CANCEL_REPLACE): cancels += 1
elif action.kind == ActionKind.CROSS_SPREAD: aggressive += 1
else: passive += 1
if action.post_only: post_onlys += 1
if action.reduce_only: reduce_onlys += 1
if eq != prev_eq and action.kind != ActionKind.NOOP: fills += 1
fq_n = max(fq_total_count, 1)
pnl = (state.account.equity - 10000.0) / 10000.0 * 10_000
pos = state.account.positions.get(state.venue.symbol, PositionState("", 0, 0, 0, 0, None, 0, None))
return {
"pnl_bps": pnl, "max_dd_bps": max_dd,
"fills": fills, "noops": noops, "cancels": cancels,
"aggressive": aggressive, "passive": passive,
"post_onlys": post_onlys, "reduce_onlys": reduce_onlys,
"order_types": dict(ot_counts), "tifs": dict(tif_counts),
"final_pos": pos.qty, "steps": steps,
# Fill quality metrics
"avg_slippage_bps": fq_slippage_sum / fq_n,
"avg_expected_slippage_bps": fq_expected_slippage_sum / fq_n,
"slippage_surprise": (fq_slippage_sum - fq_expected_slippage_sum) / fq_n,
"avg_price_improvement_bps": fq_price_improve_sum / fq_n,
"avg_adverse_bps": fq_adverse_sum / fq_n,
"avg_fill_value_score": fq_value_sum / fq_n,
"fill_rate": fq_filled_count / max(fq_total_count, 1),
}
def _baseline():
return FulfilmentPolicyParams(
version="long_e2e_35h", ucb_c=1.414, max_sims=64, max_depth=2,
rollout_depth=2, root_temperature=0.5, min_root_entropy=0.25,
quote_offsets_ticks=(0, 1, 2), quote_size_fractions=(0.10, 0.25, 0.50),
passive_ttl_ms=200, aggressive_ttl_ms=50,
maker_edge_min_bps=0.5, cross_spread_edge_min_bps=5.0,
adverse_toxicity_cancel_threshold=0.5, queue_churn_cancel_threshold=0.5,
mae_tail_cut_bps=50.0, mfe_giveback_cut_fraction=0.5,
max_time_in_loss_s=300.0, failed_recovery_cut_count=3,
recovery_velocity_min_bps_per_s=0.0,
max_symbol_notional_fraction=0.20, max_single_order_notional_fraction=0.05,
reduce_when_global_up_fraction=0.30, session_profit_lock_fraction=0.02,
w_expected_pnl=1.0, w_fill_probability=0.5, w_adverse_selection=2.0,
w_queue_priority=0.5, w_inventory_risk=1.5, w_tail_loss=5.0,
w_fee_quality=0.5, w_time_decay=0.3, w_policy_entropy=0.5,
robust_tail_weight=2.0, toxic_counterparty_weight=3.0,
low_liquidity_weight=2.0, latency_stress_weight=1.0,
)
def main():
t_start = time.time()
t_end = t_start + DURATION_S
print("=" * 80)
print("MALKHUT 3.5-HOUR INSTRUMENTED E2E")
print(f" Duration: 3.5h ({DURATION_S}s)")
print(f" CWM: HftBacktestCWM (calibrated slippage)")
print(f" Swarm: {len(SWARM)} opponents (1K)")
print(f" Assets: {', '.join(ASSETS)}")
print(f" Steps/episode: {STEPS_PER_EPISODE}")
print(f" Tracking: fill quality, slippage, improvement trends")
print("=" * 80)
print(flush=True)
cwm_factory = lambda: HftBacktestCWM(use_queue_model=True)
risk_gate = RiskGate()
params = _baseline()
factory = ScenarioFactory(exchange_id="bingx")
rng = random.Random(SEED)
# Build all scenarios
print("Building scenarios...", flush=True)
all_scenarios = []
for sym in ASSETS:
scenarios = factory.build_suite(symbols=[sym], steps_per_scenario=STEPS_PER_EPISODE, seed=SEED)
all_scenarios.extend(scenarios)
print(f" Total scenarios: {len(all_scenarios)} ({len(ASSETS)} assets)", flush=True)
# Rolling stats
recent_pnls = []
recent_fills = 0; recent_noops = 0; recent_cancels = 0
recent_aggressive = 0; recent_passive = 0
recent_post_onlys = 0; recent_reduce_onlys = 0
recent_ot_counts = defaultdict(int); recent_tif_counts = defaultdict(int)
recent_actions_total = 0; recent_episodes = 0
all_pnls = []
peak_pnl = -float("inf"); worst_pnl = float("inf")
# Fill quality rolling stats
fq_slippage_sum = 0.0; fq_expected_sum = 0.0; fq_surprise_sum = 0.0
fq_improve_sum = 0.0; fq_adverse_sum = 0.0; fq_value_sum = 0.0
fq_filled_count = 0; fq_total_count = 0
fq_n_reports = 0
# Historical fill quality per report window (for trend analysis)
fq_history = [] # list of (timestamp, avg_slippage, avg_expected, avg_surprise, avg_value, fill_rate)
# CMA-ES
cma_bests = []
codec = CMAParameterCodec()
pool = SelfPlayPool(max_size=20)
print(f"\nStarting 3.5-hour run...", flush=True)
while time.time() < t_end:
cycle = int((time.time() - t_start) / 0.1) + 1 # estimate
remaining = t_end - time.time()
if remaining < 60:
break
try:
n_episodes = min(len(all_scenarios), 20)
selected = rng.sample(all_scenarios, n_episodes)
for i, scenario in enumerate(selected):
if time.time() > t_end - 30:
break
ep_rng = random.Random(SEED + int(time.time() * 1000) + i)
ep = run_episode(
cwm=cwm_factory(), scenario=scenario, params=params,
steps=STEPS_PER_EPISODE, seed=SEED + int(time.time() * 1000) + i,
rng=ep_rng, risk_gate=risk_gate,
)
# Accumulate stats
recent_pnls.append(ep["pnl_bps"])
all_pnls.append(ep["pnl_bps"])
peak_pnl = max(peak_pnl, ep["pnl_bps"])
worst_pnl = min(worst_pnl, ep["pnl_bps"])
recent_fills += ep["fills"]
recent_noops += ep["noops"]
recent_cancels += ep["cancels"]
recent_aggressive += ep["aggressive"]
recent_passive += ep["passive"]
recent_post_onlys += ep["post_onlys"]
recent_reduce_onlys += ep["reduce_onlys"]
recent_episodes += 1
recent_actions_total += ep["steps"]
for ot, c in ep["order_types"].items():
recent_ot_counts[ot] += c
for t, c in ep["tifs"].items():
recent_tif_counts[t] += c
if len(recent_pnls) > 200:
recent_pnls = recent_pnls[-200:]
# Fill quality accumulation
fq_slippage_sum += ep["avg_slippage_bps"]
fq_expected_sum += ep["avg_expected_slippage_bps"]
fq_surprise_sum += ep["slippage_surprise"]
fq_improve_sum += ep["avg_price_improvement_bps"]
fq_adverse_sum += ep["avg_adverse_bps"]
fq_value_sum += ep["avg_fill_value_score"]
fq_filled_count += ep["fills"]
fq_total_count += ep["steps"]
fq_n_reports += 1
except Exception as e:
print(f" Error: {e}", flush=True)
# CMA-ES every 20 reports
if fq_n_reports % 20 == 0 and remaining > 600:
cma_scenarios = rng.sample(all_scenarios, min(3, len(all_scenarios)))
try:
evaluator = PolicyEvaluator(cwm_factory=cwm_factory, scoring_mode="fast")
trainer = CMAESTrainer(codec=codec, evaluator=evaluator, pool=pool, workers=0)
best = trainer.train(incumbent=params, scenarios=cma_scenarios,
budget_evals=2, seed=SEED + fq_n_reports)
cma_bests.append({"cycle": fq_n_reports, "score": best.score,
"fill_value": ep.get("avg_fill_value_score", 0)})
if best.score > params.w_expected_pnl * 10:
params = best.params
except Exception as e:
print(f" CMA-ES error: {e}", flush=True)
# Periodic report with improvement tracking
elapsed = time.time() - t_start
if fq_n_reports > 0 and fq_n_reports % 10 == 0:
n = fq_n_reports
h = elapsed / 3600; m = (elapsed % 3600) / 60
avg_slip = fq_slippage_sum / n
avg_expected = fq_expected_sum / n
avg_surprise = fq_surprise_sum / n
avg_improve = fq_improve_sum / n
avg_adverse = fq_adverse_sum / n
avg_value = fq_value_sum / n
avg_fill_rate = fq_filled_count / max(fq_total_count, 1)
# Trend: compare first half to second half
fq_history.append({
"t": elapsed, "slippage": avg_slip, "expected": avg_expected,
"surprise": avg_surprise, "improvement": avg_improve,
"adverse": avg_adverse, "value": avg_value, "fill_rate": avg_fill_rate,
})
trend_slip = "IMPROVING" if len(fq_history) >= 4 and fq_history[-1]["slippage"] < fq_history[-4]["slippage"] else "STABLE"
trend_value = "IMPROVING" if len(fq_history) >= 4 and fq_history[-1]["value"] > fq_history[-4]["value"] else "STABLE"
print(f"\n [{h:.1f}h{m:.0f}m] Cycle ~{n} | "
f"slip={avg_slip:.2f}bpx({trend_slip}) | "
f"expected={avg_expected:.2f} | "
f"surprise={avg_surprise:+.2f} | "
f"improve={avg_improve:.2f} | "
f"adverse={avg_adverse:.2f} | "
f"fill_value={avg_value:.2f}({trend_value}) | "
f"fill_rate={avg_fill_rate:.1%} | "
f"agg/pass={recent_aggressive/max(recent_passive,1):.2f}", flush=True)
# Reset window
fq_slippage_sum = 0.0; fq_expected_sum = 0.0; fq_surprise_sum = 0.0
fq_improve_sum = 0.0; fq_adverse_sum = 0.0; fq_value_sum = 0.0
fq_filled_count = 0; fq_total_count = 0; fq_n_reports = 0
recent_pnls.clear()
recent_fills = recent_noops = recent_cancels = 0
recent_aggressive = recent_passive = 0
recent_post_onlys = recent_reduce_onlys = 0
recent_ot_counts.clear(); recent_tif_counts.clear()
recent_actions_total = 0; recent_episodes = 0
# Final report
elapsed = time.time() - t_start
n = len(all_pnls)
print(f"\n{'='*80}")
print(f" FINAL REPORT — 3.5H INSTRUMENTED E2E")
print(f"{'='*80}")
if n > 0:
total_actions = sum(recent_ot_counts.values()) + recent_actions_total
print(f"\n Duration: {elapsed/3600:.1f}h ({elapsed:.0f}s)")
print(f" Total episodes: {n}")
print(f"\n PERFORMANCE")
print(f" Avg PnL: {sum(all_pnls)/n:+.1f} bps")
print(f" Median PnL: {sorted(all_pnls)[n//2]:+.1f} bps")
print(f" Best: {max(all_pnls):+.1f} bps")
print(f" Worst: {min(all_pnls):+.1f} bps")
print(f" Win rate: {sum(1 for p in all_pnls if p > 0)/n*100:.1f}%")
print(f"\n FILL QUALITY (CORE)")
if fq_history:
first = fq_history[0]; last = fq_history[-1]
print(f" Avg fill value score: {last['value']:.2f}")
print(f" Fill value trend: {first['value']:.2f} -> {last['value']:.2f} ({(last['value']-first['value'])/max(abs(first['value']),0.01)*100:+.1f}%)")
print(f" Avg fill rate: {last['fill_rate']:.1%}")
print(f" Fill rate trend: {first['fill_rate']:.1%} -> {last['fill_rate']:.1%}")
print(f"\n SLIPPAGE (CORE)")
if fq_history:
print(f" Avg actual slippage: {last['slippage']:.2f} bps")
print(f" Avg expected slip: {last['expected']:.2f} bps")
print(f" Avg slippage surprise:{last['surprise']:+.2f} bps (neg=good: actual < expected)")
print(f" Slippage trend: {first['slippage']:.2f} -> {last['slippage']:.2f} ({(last['slippage']-first['slippage'])/max(abs(first['slippage']),0.01)*100:+.1f}%)")
print(f" Avg price improvement:{last['improvement']:.2f} bps")
print(f" Avg post-fill adverse:{last['adverse']:.2f} bps")
print(f"\n 1K OPPONENT SWARM")
print(f" Aggressive: {sum(r['aggressive'] for r in fq_history):.0f}")
print(f" Passive: {sum(r['passive'] for r in fq_history):.0f}")
print(f" Post-only: {sum(r['post_onlys'] for r in fq_history):.0f}")
print(f" CMA-ES: {len(cma_bests)} cycles")
print(f"{'='*80}", flush=True)
os.makedirs("malkhut/results", exist_ok=True)
report = {
"duration_s": round(elapsed, 1), "n_episodes": n,
"n_scenarios": len(all_scenarios), "n_opponents": len(SWARM),
"avg_pnl_bps": round(sum(all_pnls)/n, 1) if n else 0,
"win_rate_pct": round(sum(1 for p in all_pnls if p > 0)/n*100, 1) if n else 0,
"fq_history": fq_history, "cma_bests": cma_bests,
}
path = f"malkhut/results/e2e_35h_{int(time.time())}.json"
with open(path, "w") as f:
json.dump(report, f, indent=2)
print(f"\nReport: {path}", flush=True)
if __name__ == "__main__":
try:
main()
except Exception as e:
import traceback
print(f"\nFATAL: {e}", flush=True)
traceback.print_exc()
sys.exit(1)