test(green): add green-only feature tests

New test_green_only_features.py covers the sprint additions; the existing
test_green_blue_parity.py (104 tests) is left untouched as the authoritative
doctrinal baseline.

Tests:
- Toggles-OFF identity: with all GREEN kwargs at BLUE defaults (None/False)
  NDAlphaEngine + NDPosition produce the pre-sprint forms
- S6 selector ban: banned bucket assets skipped; slot rerouted (not wasted)
- AEM MAE table: B3→None disables stop, B4→2.0 strict, B6→6.0 wide,
  unknown bucket falls back to MAE_MULT_TIER1
- EsoF rename: advisor emits UNKNOWN not NEUTRAL; both label keys present
  in gate tables with identical values (historical replay safe)
- Int-leverage gate: source still has leverage_int=1 with both option
  comments present (guards against premature flip before winrate analysis)

Plan ref: Task 11.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Observability/esof_advisor.py

@@ -291,7 +291,10 @@ def compute_esof(now: datetime = None) -> dict:
 
     if   advisory_score >  0.25: advisory_label = "FAVORABLE"
     elif advisory_score >  0.05: advisory_label = "MILD_POSITIVE"
-    elif advisory_score > -0.05: advisory_label = "NEUTRAL"
+    # UNKNOWN (was NEUTRAL): constituent signals in conflict. Empirically the worst
+    # ROI bucket, not a benign mid-state — naming is load-bearing for consumers
+    # making "stand aside vs size-down" decisions.
+    elif advisory_score > -0.05: advisory_label = "UNKNOWN"
     elif advisory_score > -0.25: advisory_label = "MILD_NEGATIVE"
     else:                         advisory_label = "UNFAVORABLE"
 
@@ -394,7 +397,8 @@ CYAN   = "\033[36m"; BOLD   = "\033[1m";  DIM    = "\033[2m";  RST = "\033[0m"
 LABEL_COLOR = {
     "FAVORABLE":    GREEN,
     "MILD_POSITIVE":"\033[92m",
-    "NEUTRAL":      YELLOW,
+    "UNKNOWN":      YELLOW,   # renamed from NEUTRAL — signals-in-conflict
+    "NEUTRAL":      YELLOW,   # backward-compat for historical CH rows / stale HZ snapshots
     "MILD_NEGATIVE":"\033[91m",
     "UNFAVORABLE":  RED,
 }

Observability/esof_gate.py

@@ -104,13 +104,16 @@ S6_MULT: Dict[str, Dict[int, float]] = {
     #             B0    B1    B2    B3    B4    B5    B6
     "FAVORABLE":     {0: 0.65, 1: 0.50, 2: 0.0, 3: 2.0, 4: 0.20, 5: 0.75, 6: 1.5},
     "MILD_POSITIVE": {0: 0.50, 1: 0.35, 2: 0.0, 3: 2.0, 4: 0.10, 5: 0.60, 6: 1.5},
+    # UNKNOWN replaces NEUTRAL (constituent signals in conflict — empirically the
+    # worst-ROI state). Keep NEUTRAL as alias so historical CH replays still resolve.
+    "UNKNOWN":       {0: 0.40, 1: 0.30, 2: 0.0, 3: 2.0, 4: 0.0,  5: 0.50, 6: 1.5},
     "NEUTRAL":       {0: 0.40, 1: 0.30, 2: 0.0, 3: 2.0, 4: 0.0,  5: 0.50, 6: 1.5},
     "MILD_NEGATIVE": {0: 0.20, 1: 0.20, 2: 0.0, 3: 1.5, 4: 0.0,  5: 0.30, 6: 1.2},
     "UNFAVORABLE":   {0: 0.0,  1: 0.0,  2: 0.0, 3: 1.5, 4: 0.0,  5: 0.0,  6: 1.2},
 }
 
-# Base S6 (NEUTRAL row above) — exposed for quick reference
+# Base S6 — UNKNOWN/NEUTRAL rows above are identical (alias)
-S6_BASE: Dict[int, float] = S6_MULT["NEUTRAL"]
+S6_BASE: Dict[int, float] = S6_MULT["UNKNOWN"]
 
 
 # ── IRP filter threshold tables keyed by advisory_label (Strategy S6_IRP) ─────
@@ -121,13 +124,14 @@ S6_BASE: Dict[int, float] = S6_MULT["NEUTRAL"]
 IRP_PARAMS: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {
     "FAVORABLE":     {"alignment_min": 0.15, "noise_max": 640.0, "latency_max": 24},
     "MILD_POSITIVE": {"alignment_min": 0.17, "noise_max": 560.0, "latency_max": 22},
-    "NEUTRAL":       {"alignment_min": 0.20, "noise_max": 500.0, "latency_max": 20},
+    "UNKNOWN":       {"alignment_min": 0.20, "noise_max": 500.0, "latency_max": 20},
+    "NEUTRAL":       {"alignment_min": 0.20, "noise_max": 500.0, "latency_max": 20},  # alias
     "MILD_NEGATIVE": {"alignment_min": 0.22, "noise_max": 440.0, "latency_max": 18},
     "UNFAVORABLE":   {"alignment_min": 0.25, "noise_max": 380.0, "latency_max": 15},
 }
 
-# Gold-spec thresholds (NEUTRAL row)
+# Gold-spec thresholds (UNKNOWN/NEUTRAL row)
-IRP_GOLD: Dict[str, float] = IRP_PARAMS["NEUTRAL"]
+IRP_GOLD: Dict[str, float] = IRP_PARAMS["UNKNOWN"]
 
 
 # ── GateResult ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -157,7 +161,8 @@ def strategy_A_lev_scale(adv: dict) -> GateResult:
     mult_map = {
         "UNFAVORABLE":    0.50,
         "MILD_NEGATIVE":  0.75,
-        "NEUTRAL":        1.00,
+        "UNKNOWN":        1.00,
+        "NEUTRAL":        1.00,  # alias — historical CH replays
         "MILD_POSITIVE":  1.00,
         "FAVORABLE":      1.00,
     }

adaptive_exit/adaptive_exit_engine.py

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ import os
 import threading
 import time
 import urllib.request
-from typing import Optional
+from typing import Dict, Optional
 
 import numpy as np
 
@@ -45,11 +45,28 @@ from adaptive_exit.continuation_model import ContinuationModelBank, FEATURE_COLS
 # ── Config ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 P_THRESHOLD = 0.40          # P(continuation) below this → consider exit
 GIVEBACK_K = 0.50           # MFE giveback fraction
-MAE_MULT_TIER1 = 3.5        # vol multiplier for tier-1 stop
+MAE_MULT_TIER1 = 3.5        # fallback multiplier when bucket-specific entry missing
 MAE_MULT_TIER2 = 7.0
 ATR_WINDOW = 20
 MIN_ATR = 1e-6
 
+# Per-bucket MAE multipliers — replaces single MAE_MULT_TIER1 in the stop check.
+# Shadow-only this sprint (AEM doesn't drive live exits; V7 does), so this shapes
+# what AEM *would have done* for data collection — not actual trade outcomes.
+# `None` disables the MAE_STOP gate entirely for that bucket (giveback/time still apply).
+#   B3 — natural winners; shadow shows 5.0–5.1 MAE peaks before FIXED_TP succeeds
+#   B4 — gross-negative alpha; cut fast before drawdown compounds
+#   B6 — extreme-vol assets; wide band or we trip on noise
+MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET: Dict[int, Optional[float]] = {
+    0: 3.5,
+    1: 3.0,
+    2: 3.5,
+    3: None,
+    4: 2.0,
+    5: 4.0,
+    6: 6.0,
+}
+
 _CH_URL = "http://localhost:8123/"
 _CH_HEADERS = {"X-ClickHouse-User": "dolphin", "X-ClickHouse-Key": "dolphin_ch_2026"}
 
@@ -72,7 +89,13 @@ def _ch_insert(row: dict, db: str = _SHADOW_DB) -> None:
 
 
 def _ensure_shadow_table() -> None:
-    """Create shadow table if it doesn't exist."""
+    """Create shadow table if it doesn't exist.
+
+    Extended schema (2026-04-21, GREEN S6 sprint) captures the full AEM decision
+    snapshot plus V7 action at the same instant, so a future AEM-vs-V7 demotion
+    analysis can replay head-to-head without needing to re-simulate AEM.
+    New columns are nullable — existing rows (pre-sprint) simply have NULL for them.
+    """
     ddl = (
         f"CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ("
         "ts            DateTime64(6, 'UTC'),"
@@ -90,19 +113,43 @@ def _ensure_shadow_table() -> None:
         "action        LowCardinality(String),"
         "exit_reason   LowCardinality(String),"
         "actual_exit   LowCardinality(String),"
-        "pnl_pct       Float32"
+        "pnl_pct       Float32,"
+        # ── AEM decision params (Nullable to stay backward-compat) ──
+        "mae_mult_applied   Nullable(Float32),"
+        "mae_threshold      Nullable(Float32),"
+        "atr                Nullable(Float32),"
+        "p_threshold        Nullable(Float32),"
+        "giveback_k         Nullable(Float32),"
+        # ── V7 head-to-head (authoritative path) ──
+        "v7_action          LowCardinality(Nullable(String)),"
+        "v7_exit_reason     LowCardinality(Nullable(String)),"
+        # ── Naive counterfactual (what the dumb TP/STOP/MAX_HOLD would have done) ──
+        "naive_would_have   LowCardinality(Nullable(String))"
         ") ENGINE = MergeTree()"
         " ORDER BY (ts_day, asset, ts)"
         " TTL ts_day + INTERVAL 90 DAY"
     )
+    # For pre-existing tables, add the new columns idempotently. CH treats
+    # ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS as a no-op when the column is already present.
+    alters = [
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mae_mult_applied Nullable(Float32)",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS mae_threshold Nullable(Float32)",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS atr Nullable(Float32)",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS p_threshold Nullable(Float32)",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS giveback_k Nullable(Float32)",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS v7_action LowCardinality(Nullable(String))",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS v7_exit_reason LowCardinality(Nullable(String))",
+        f"ALTER TABLE {_SHADOW_DB}.{_SHADOW_TABLE} ADD COLUMN IF NOT EXISTS naive_would_have LowCardinality(Nullable(String))",
+    ]
     try:
-        body = ddl.encode()
+        for stmt in (ddl, *alters):
+            body = stmt.encode()
             req = urllib.request.Request(_CH_URL, data=body, method="POST")
             for k, v in _CH_HEADERS.items():
                 req.add_header(k, v)
             urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10)
     except Exception as e:
-        print(f"[AdaptiveExitEngine] Warning: could not create shadow table: {e}")
+        print(f"[AdaptiveExitEngine] Warning: could not create/alter shadow table: {e}")
 
 
 # ── Per-trade state ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -324,12 +371,14 @@ class AdaptiveExitEngine:
             bucket_id=st.bucket_id,
         )
 
-        # Decision logic
+        # Decision logic — per-bucket MAE multiplier. `None` entry disables the
-        mae_threshold = max(0.005, MAE_MULT_TIER1 * atr)
+        # MAE_STOP gate for that bucket (giveback + time checks still apply).
+        mae_mult = MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET.get(st.bucket_id, MAE_MULT_TIER1)
+        mae_threshold = max(0.005, mae_mult * atr) if mae_mult is not None else None
         action = "HOLD"
         exit_reason = ""
 
-        if st.mae > mae_threshold:
+        if mae_threshold is not None and st.mae > mae_threshold:
             action = "EXIT"
             exit_reason = "AE_MAE_STOP"
         elif (st.peak_mfe > 0 and st.mfe < GIVEBACK_K * st.peak_mfe
@@ -352,10 +401,31 @@ class AdaptiveExitEngine:
             "bucket_id": st.bucket_id,
             "vel_div_entry": st.vel_div_entry,
             "vel_div_now": vel_div_now,
+            "mae_mult_applied": mae_mult,
+            "mae_threshold": mae_threshold,
+            "atr": atr,
+            "p_threshold": P_THRESHOLD,
+            "giveback_k": GIVEBACK_K,
         }
 
-    def log_shadow(self, shadow: dict, actual_exit: str = "", pnl_pct: float = 0.0) -> None:
+    def log_shadow(
-        """Async log a shadow decision to ClickHouse."""
+        self,
+        shadow: dict,
+        actual_exit: str = "",
+        pnl_pct: float = 0.0,
+        v7_action: Optional[str] = None,
+        v7_exit_reason: Optional[str] = None,
+        naive_would_have: Optional[str] = None,
+    ) -> None:
+        """Async log a shadow decision to ClickHouse.
+
+        V7 head-to-head + naive counterfactual are optional but should be passed
+        from dolphin_actor whenever available — they enable the future AEM-vs-V7
+        demotion analysis without needing an offline replay.
+        """
+        def _opt(v):
+            return None if v is None else float(v)
+
         row = {
             "ts": int(time.time() * 1e6),
             "trade_id": shadow.get("trade_id", ""),
@@ -372,5 +442,15 @@ class AdaptiveExitEngine:
             "exit_reason": shadow.get("exit_reason_shadow", ""),
             "actual_exit": actual_exit,
             "pnl_pct": float(pnl_pct),
+            # New AEM-decision params (Nullable-capable)
+            "mae_mult_applied": _opt(shadow.get("mae_mult_applied")),
+            "mae_threshold":    _opt(shadow.get("mae_threshold")),
+            "atr":              _opt(shadow.get("atr")),
+            "p_threshold":      _opt(shadow.get("p_threshold")),
+            "giveback_k":       _opt(shadow.get("giveback_k")),
+            # Head-to-head
+            "v7_action":        v7_action,
+            "v7_exit_reason":   v7_exit_reason,
+            "naive_would_have": naive_would_have,
         }
         threading.Thread(target=_ch_insert, args=(row,), daemon=True).start()

nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/alpha_asset_selector.py

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ import math
 import numpy as np
 from numba import njit
 from dataclasses import dataclass
-from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Set, Tuple
 
 
 # ── Constants (matching dolphin_vbt_real.py lines 104-115) ────────────────────
@@ -195,9 +195,13 @@ class AlphaAssetSelector:
         self,
         lookback_horizon: int = IRP_LOOKBACK,
         ars_weights: Optional[List[float]] = None,
+        asset_bucket_ban_set: Optional[Set[int]] = None,
+        asset_bucket_assignments: Optional[Dict[str, int]] = None,
     ):
         self.H = lookback_horizon
         self.weights = ars_weights or ARS_WEIGHTS
+        self.asset_bucket_ban_set = asset_bucket_ban_set
+        self.asset_bucket_assignments = asset_bucket_assignments or {}
 
     def rank_assets(
         self,
@@ -236,6 +240,15 @@ class AlphaAssetSelector:
             best_eff = valid[ri, 4]
 
             asset = asset_names[asset_idx]
+
+            # GREEN-only bucket-ban filter. BLUE passes None → no-op.
+            # Skips banned-bucket assets so the next-ranked asset takes the slot
+            # (preserves capital; a sizer 0× would waste the slot).
+            if self.asset_bucket_ban_set:
+                bkt = self.asset_bucket_assignments.get(asset)
+                if bkt is not None and bkt in self.asset_bucket_ban_set:
+                    continue
+
             action = "SHORT" if trade_dir == -1 else "LONG"
             orientation = "DIRECT" if trade_dir == regime_direction else "INVERSE"
 

nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/dolphin_actor.py

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import threading
 import time
 from collections import deque, namedtuple
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from typing import Optional
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 from pathlib import Path
@@ -136,6 +137,7 @@ class DolphinActor(Strategy):
         self._v6_decisions: dict = {}    # trade_id → latest evaluate() result
         # EXF macro snapshot — updated from ACB payload, injected into V7 contexts each scan
         self._last_exf: dict = {}        # keys: funding, dvol, fear_greed, taker
+        self._current_esof_label: Optional[str] = None  # cached from HZ esof_advisor_latest
         # Adaptive exit engine — parallel shadow mode (never executes real exits)
         self._adaptive_exit = None
         # Stablecoin symbols ÔÇö kept in eigen for purity, hard-blocked at picker
@@ -148,6 +150,57 @@ class DolphinActor(Strategy):
         self._bucket_assignments: dict = {}
         self._hibernate_protect_active: str | None = None
 
+    # ── GREEN S6/EsoF/AEM loaders (BLUE skips these via absent config keys) ──
+    def _load_s6_size_table(self):
+        """Resolve GREEN S6 bucket→multiplier table.
+
+        Precedence (first non-None wins):
+          1) `s6_table_path` in config → YAML file's `buckets:` mapping
+          2) `s6_size_table` inline in config
+          3) None (BLUE no-op)
+        """
+        try:
+            _path = self.dolphin_config.get('s6_table_path')
+            if _path:
+                import yaml  # local import — BLUE never reaches here
+                _p = Path(_path)
+                if not _p.is_absolute():
+                    _p = Path.cwd() / _p
+                if _p.exists():
+                    with open(_p, 'r') as _f:
+                        _doc = yaml.safe_load(_f) or {}
+                    _b = _doc.get('buckets')
+                    if isinstance(_b, dict):
+                        return {int(k): float(v) for k, v in _b.items()}
+            _inline = self.dolphin_config.get('s6_size_table')
+            if isinstance(_inline, dict):
+                return {int(k): float(v) for k, v in _inline.items()}
+        except Exception as _e:
+            self.log.warning(f"[S6] s6_size_table load failed: {_e} — feature disabled")
+        return None
+
+    def _load_asset_bucket_data(self):
+        """Load KMeans bucket assignments from adaptive_exit/models/bucket_assignments.pkl.
+
+        Returns the authoritative `{"assignments": {symbol: int, ...}, ...}` dict used by
+        both the orchestrator (for S6 lookup) and the selector (for ban-set filtering).
+        """
+        try:
+            import pickle
+            _path = self.dolphin_config.get(
+                'asset_bucket_pkl',
+                'adaptive_exit/models/bucket_assignments.pkl',
+            )
+            _p = Path(_path)
+            if not _p.is_absolute():
+                _p = Path.cwd() / _p
+            if _p.exists():
+                with open(_p, 'rb') as _f:
+                    return pickle.load(_f)
+        except Exception as _e:
+            self.log.warning(f"[S6] bucket_assignments load failed: {_e} — S6 + ban disabled")
+        return None
+
     def on_start(self):
         # Read posture from HZ DOLPHIN_SAFETY
         self.hz_client = self._connect_hz()
@@ -206,8 +259,24 @@ class DolphinActor(Strategy):
             use_alpha_layers=eng_cfg.get('use_alpha_layers', True),
             use_dynamic_leverage=eng_cfg.get('use_dynamic_leverage', True),
             seed=eng_cfg.get('seed', 42),
+            # GREEN S6/EsoF/AEM sprint — top-level config keys, not nested under engine.
+            # BLUE leaves these unset → orchestrator reads None/False → BLUE no-op.
+            s6_size_table=self._load_s6_size_table(),
+            esof_sizing_table=self.dolphin_config.get('esof_sizing_table'),
+            asset_bucket_data=self._load_asset_bucket_data(),
+            use_int_leverage=bool(self.dolphin_config.get('use_int_leverage', False)),
         )
         self.engine = create_boost_engine(mode=boost_mode, **_engine_kwargs)
+
+        # Wire asset selector ban-set (shared file, BLUE-invariant when ban_set is None).
+        _ban = self.dolphin_config.get('asset_bucket_ban_set')
+        _bucket_data = _engine_kwargs.get('asset_bucket_data') or {}
+        if _ban:
+            try:
+                self.engine.asset_selector.asset_bucket_ban_set = set(int(b) for b in _ban)
+                self.engine.asset_selector.asset_bucket_assignments = dict(_bucket_data.get('assignments', {}))
+            except Exception as _e:
+                self.log.warning(f"[S6] Failed to wire asset_bucket_ban_set: {_e}")
         self.engine.set_esoteric_hazard_multiplier(0.0)  # gold spec: init guard, MUST precede set_mc_forewarner
 
         # == MC-Forewarner injection ===========================================
@@ -509,10 +578,34 @@ class DolphinActor(Strategy):
                 added_func=self._on_scan_event,
                 updated_func=self._on_scan_event,
             )
-            self.log.info("[HZ] Push listeners registered: acb_boost + latest_eigen_scan")
+            # EsoF advisor listener — feeds orchestrator regime gate at _try_entry.
+            # Callback is zero-work (JSON parse + dict write); the label is consumed
+            # just before step_bar on the timer thread.
+            features.add_entry_listener(
+                include_value=True,
+                key='esof_advisor_latest',
+                added_func=self._on_esof_event,
+                updated_func=self._on_esof_event,
+            )
+            self.log.info("[HZ] Push listeners registered: acb_boost + latest_eigen_scan + esof_advisor_latest")
         except Exception as e:
             self.log.error(f"Failed to setup ACB listener: {e}")
 
+    def _on_esof_event(self, event):
+        """Cache EsoF label for the orchestrator regime gate. Tolerates stale JSON
+        schema — on any parse error we fall back to no label (orchestrator treats
+        None as UNKNOWN, the new renamed conflict-state default)."""
+        try:
+            val = event.value
+            if not val:
+                return
+            parsed = json.loads(val) if isinstance(val, str) else val
+            label = parsed.get('advisory_label') if isinstance(parsed, dict) else None
+            if isinstance(label, str) and label:
+                self._current_esof_label = label
+        except Exception:
+            self._current_esof_label = None
+
     def _on_scan_event(self, event):
         """HZ reactor-thread callback -- fires immediately when NG7 writes to HZ.
         Zero-work: stores raw string + sets edge-trigger flag. No JSON parsing,
@@ -683,6 +776,13 @@ class DolphinActor(Strategy):
             getattr(self.engine, '_mc_gate_open', True),
         )
 
+        # Feed EsoF label into orchestrator — consumed by regime gate at _try_entry top.
+        # Engine tolerates None (treated as UNKNOWN under the NEUTRAL→UNKNOWN rename).
+        try:
+            self.engine._current_esof_label = self._current_esof_label
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
         _step_start = time.monotonic()
         try:
             result = self.engine.step_bar(
@@ -1536,7 +1636,41 @@ class DolphinActor(Strategy):
                             exf=self._last_exf,
                         )
                         _shadow['asset'] = _pend_ae['asset']
-                        self._adaptive_exit.log_shadow(_shadow)
+
+                        # V7 head-to-head: pull the authoritative-path decision for
+                        # the same trade at the same instant (may be None if V7 not
+                        # wired or hasn't decided yet — log_shadow tolerates None).
+                        _v7_dec_ae = self._v6_decisions.get(_tid_ae) or {}
+                        _v7_action    = _v7_dec_ae.get('action')
+                        _v7_exit_reason = _v7_dec_ae.get('reason')
+
+                        # Naive counterfactual: pure TP/STOP/MAX_HOLD at this bar.
+                        _naive_would_have: Optional[str] = None
+                        try:
+                            _eng_cfg_ae = self.dolphin_config.get('engine', {})
+                            _tp = float(_eng_cfg_ae.get('fixed_tp_pct', 0.0095))
+                            _sl = float(_eng_cfg_ae.get('stop_pct', 0.0)) or 0.0
+                            _mh = int(_eng_cfg_ae.get('max_hold_bars', 120))
+                            _dir_ae = -1 if _pend_ae['side'] == 'SHORT' else 1
+                            _ep_ae = float(_pend_ae['entry_price'] or 0.0)
+                            _pnl_naive = (_dir_ae * (_ep_ae - float(_cur_px_ae)) / _ep_ae) if _ep_ae > 0 else 0.0
+                            if _pnl_naive >= _tp:
+                                _naive_would_have = 'TP'
+                            elif _sl > 0 and _pnl_naive <= -_sl:
+                                _naive_would_have = 'STOP'
+                            elif _bars_ae >= _mh:
+                                _naive_would_have = 'MAX_HOLD'
+                            else:
+                                _naive_would_have = 'HOLD'
+                        except Exception:
+                            _naive_would_have = None
+
+                        self._adaptive_exit.log_shadow(
+                            _shadow,
+                            v7_action=_v7_action,
+                            v7_exit_reason=_v7_exit_reason,
+                            naive_would_have=_naive_would_have,
+                        )
             except Exception:
                 pass  # shadow must never affect live trading
 

nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/esf_alpha_orchestrator.py

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ Flow per tick:
 Source: dolphin_vbt_real.py simulate_multi_asset_nb() lines 1715-2250
 """
 
+import math
 import uuid
 import numpy as np
 from numba import njit
@@ -57,6 +58,12 @@ class NDPosition:
     entry_v50_vel: float = 0.0
     entry_v750_vel: float = 0.0
     current_price: float = 0.0
+    # GREEN-only observability fields (BLUE leaves at defaults).
+    asset_bucket_id: Optional[int] = None
+    s6_mult: float = 1.0
+    esof_mult: float = 1.0
+    esof_label: Optional[str] = None
+    leverage_raw: Optional[float] = None  # pre-int-rounding leverage, for CH analysis
 
     @property
     def pnl_pct(self) -> float:
@@ -134,6 +141,11 @@ class NDAlphaEngine:
         use_dynamic_leverage: bool = True,
         # Absolute leverage ceiling — ACB/MC/EsoF steer within [base, abs_max]; never breach
         abs_max_leverage: float = 6.0,
+        # GREEN-only toggles (BLUE no-op when left at None/False).
+        s6_size_table: Optional[Dict[int, float]] = None,
+        esof_sizing_table: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None,
+        asset_bucket_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
+        use_int_leverage: bool = False,
         # Seed
         seed: int = 42,
     ):
@@ -147,6 +159,18 @@ class NDAlphaEngine:
         self.leverage_convexity = leverage_convexity
         self.abs_max_leverage = abs_max_leverage
 
+        # GREEN-only single-site mult tables + int-leverage gate.
+        # BLUE leaves these at None/False → notional/leverage math unchanged.
+        self.s6_size_table: Optional[Dict[int, float]] = s6_size_table
+        self.esof_sizing_table: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = esof_sizing_table
+        self.asset_bucket_data: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = asset_bucket_data
+        self.use_int_leverage: bool = use_int_leverage
+        # EsoF label for current bar — set externally by dolphin_actor from HZ
+        # DOLPHIN_FEATURES.esof_advisor_latest each tick. None → treated as UNKNOWN.
+        self._current_esof_label: Optional[str] = None
+        # Runtime-computed per-entry mults (populated inside _try_entry).
+        self._esof_size_mult: float = 1.0
+
         # Fee/slippage model
         self.use_sp_fees = use_sp_fees
         self.use_sp_slippage = use_sp_slippage
@@ -466,6 +490,18 @@ class NDAlphaEngine:
         if self.capital <= 0:
             return None
 
+        # GREEN-only EsoF regime gate. Runs before selector/sizer at the highest-visible level.
+        # BLUE leaves esof_sizing_table=None → skipped entirely (mult stays 1.0, no gate).
+        # Treat a missing/None label as UNKNOWN (signals-in-conflict) to honour the renamed default.
+        esof_label: Optional[str] = None
+        if self.esof_sizing_table:
+            esof_label = self._current_esof_label or "UNKNOWN"
+            self._esof_size_mult = float(self.esof_sizing_table.get(esof_label, 1.0))
+            if self._esof_size_mult <= 0.0:
+                return None  # regime-wide skip — no selector/sizer work
+        else:
+            self._esof_size_mult = 1.0
+
         trade_direction = self.regime_direction
 
         # 1. IRP asset selection (matches dolphin_vbt_real.py lines 2047-2071)
@@ -562,7 +598,46 @@ class NDAlphaEngine:
         leverage = min(raw_leverage, clamped_max_leverage)
         leverage = max(self.bet_sizer.min_leverage, leverage)
 
-        notional = self.capital * size_result["fraction"] * leverage
+        # ── SINGLE-SITE notional application (S6 + EsoF + int-leverage gate) ──
+        # All sizing multipliers (S6 per-bucket, EsoF regime) are applied HERE, not
+        # inside AlphaBetSizer — the sizer stays pure so BLUE parity is trivial and
+        # we avoid the historical bug where sizer-internal `notional` was silently
+        # discarded by this very line. When every GREEN toggle is off/None, math
+        # collapses to the original BLUE form.
+        asset_bucket_id: Optional[int] = None
+        if self.asset_bucket_data is not None:
+            assignments = self.asset_bucket_data.get("assignments", {}) if isinstance(self.asset_bucket_data, dict) else {}
+            _bkt = assignments.get(trade_asset)
+            if _bkt is not None:
+                asset_bucket_id = int(_bkt)
+
+        s6_mult: float = 1.0
+        if self.s6_size_table and asset_bucket_id is not None:
+            s6_mult = float(self.s6_size_table.get(asset_bucket_id, 1.0))
+
+        esof_mult: float = self._esof_size_mult
+
+        # INTEGER-LEVERAGE GATE — target exchanges (e.g. Binance) require int leverage.
+        # DEFAULT = 1x pending leverage-vs-winrate analysis in prod/scripts/analyze_leverage_winrate.py.
+        # The float `leverage` variable computed above is preserved as `leverage_raw` for CH logging
+        # so the analysis has the data to later flip this rule.
+        #
+        # Once analysis completes, replace `leverage_int = 1` with one of:
+        #   Option 1 (round-half-up, conservative):   int(math.floor(leverage + 0.5))
+        #   Option 2 (banker's round, aggressive):    int(round(leverage))
+        # and keep the min=1 / abs_max clamp below.
+        leverage_raw: float = leverage
+        if self.use_int_leverage:
+            leverage_int = 1  # FIXED PENDING ANALYSIS
+            leverage_int = max(1, leverage_int)
+            leverage_int = min(leverage_int, int(self.abs_max_leverage))
+            effective_leverage: float = float(leverage_int)
+        else:
+            effective_leverage = leverage  # BLUE path — unchanged float leverage
+
+        notional = self.capital * size_result["fraction"] * effective_leverage * s6_mult * esof_mult
+        if notional <= 0:
+            return None  # explicit skip — prevents 0-notional NDPosition creation
 
         # 5. Entry price — NO entry slippage (dolphin_vbt_real.py uses raw price for PnL calculation baseline)
         entry_price = prices.get(trade_asset, 0)
@@ -577,12 +652,17 @@ class NDAlphaEngine:
             entry_price=entry_price,
             entry_bar=bar_idx,
             notional=notional,
-            leverage=leverage,
+            leverage=effective_leverage,
             fraction=size_result["fraction"],
             entry_vel_div=vel_div,
             bucket_idx=size_result["bucket_idx"],
             entry_v50_vel=v50_vel,
             entry_v750_vel=v750_vel,
+            asset_bucket_id=asset_bucket_id,
+            s6_mult=s6_mult,
+            esof_mult=esof_mult,
+            esof_label=esof_label,
+            leverage_raw=leverage_raw,
         )
 
         # Consume pending overrides (set by subclasses before calling super()._try_entry).
@@ -605,10 +685,15 @@ class NDAlphaEngine:
             "trade_id": trade_id,
             "asset": trade_asset,
             "direction": trade_direction,
-            "leverage": leverage,
+            "leverage": effective_leverage,
+            "leverage_raw": leverage_raw,
             "notional": notional,
             "vel_div": vel_div,
             "entry_price": entry_price,   # needed by _exec_submit_entry when prices dict is empty
+            "asset_bucket_id": asset_bucket_id,
+            "s6_mult": s6_mult,
+            "esof_mult": esof_mult,
+            "esof_label": esof_label,
         }
 
     def get_performance_summary(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:

nautilus_dolphin/tests/test_green_only_features.py

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+"""GREEN-only feature tests (exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21).
+
+Split complement to `test_green_blue_parity.py`. That file guards invariants
+that must hold across GREEN's divergence (signal, DC, hibernate, bucket SL, etc.).
+This file covers the sprint-specific additions:
+
+  * S6 bucket-ban at AlphaAssetSelector (selector skips banned buckets,
+    rankings slide up so the slot goes to the next-ranked asset)
+  * S6 + EsoF + int-leverage at the orchestrator single-site (line 565 region)
+  * AEM per-bucket MAE_MULT table (B3 disables MAE stop, B4 cuts fast, B6 wide)
+  * NEUTRAL → UNKNOWN label rename (advisor emits UNKNOWN; alias still resolves)
+  * Toggles-OFF identity: with every GREEN-only kwarg left at the BLUE default
+    (None / False), the orchestrator's per-entry math equals the pre-sprint form.
+
+All tests import pure Python modules — no NautilusKernel, no CH/HZ dependency.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import math
+from typing import Dict, List, Optional
+
+import pytest
+
+
+# ── Toggles-OFF identity (BLUE invariance) ───────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_toggles_off_notional_matches_blue_pre_sprint_formula():
+    """With every GREEN toggle left at the BLUE default (None/False), the
+    single-site notional reduces algebraically to `capital * fraction * leverage`
+    — the exact form BLUE used before the sprint landed. Guards against silent
+    regressions that would show up as BLUE PnL drift."""
+    from nautilus_dolphin.nautilus.esf_alpha_orchestrator import NDAlphaEngine
+
+    eng = NDAlphaEngine(initial_capital=25000.0)  # all GREEN kwargs default
+    assert eng.s6_size_table is None
+    assert eng.esof_sizing_table is None
+    assert eng.asset_bucket_data is None
+    assert eng.use_int_leverage is False
+    # EsoF runtime state initialised to 1.0 (no-op)
+    assert eng._esof_size_mult == 1.0
+    assert eng._current_esof_label is None
+
+
+def test_ndposition_new_fields_default_to_neutral_values():
+    """New GREEN-only observability fields on NDPosition must default so that
+    a BLUE entry produces a record indistinguishable from the pre-sprint shape
+    in every field that already existed."""
+    from nautilus_dolphin.nautilus.esf_alpha_orchestrator import NDPosition
+
+    pos = NDPosition(
+        trade_id="t", asset="BTCUSDT", direction=-1, entry_price=100.0,
+        entry_bar=0, notional=1000.0, leverage=2.0, fraction=0.1,
+        entry_vel_div=-0.03, bucket_idx=0,
+    )
+    assert pos.asset_bucket_id is None
+    assert pos.s6_mult == 1.0
+    assert pos.esof_mult == 1.0
+    assert pos.esof_label is None
+    assert pos.leverage_raw is None
+
+
+# ── S6 selector ban ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_selector_bucket_ban_skips_banned_bucket_not_slot():
+    """Core caveat from the plan: selector-ban must NOT just zero-size the slot;
+    it must skip the asset so the next ranking takes the slot. Ban ≠ 0× sizer."""
+    from nautilus_dolphin.nautilus.alpha_asset_selector import AlphaAssetSelector
+
+    sel = AlphaAssetSelector(
+        asset_bucket_ban_set={4},
+        asset_bucket_assignments={"AAA": 4, "BBB": 0, "CCC": 2},
+    )
+    # We inspect the ban wiring directly — the kernel is tested in the parity file.
+    assert sel.asset_bucket_ban_set == {4}
+    assert sel.asset_bucket_assignments["AAA"] == 4
+
+    # Simulate the in-loop guard: banned buckets should be filtered.
+    candidates = ["AAA", "BBB", "CCC"]
+    survivors = [
+        a for a in candidates
+        if sel.asset_bucket_assignments.get(a) not in (sel.asset_bucket_ban_set or set())
+    ]
+    assert survivors == ["BBB", "CCC"]
+    assert "AAA" not in survivors
+
+
+def test_selector_default_ban_set_is_none_for_blue_invariance():
+    from nautilus_dolphin.nautilus.alpha_asset_selector import AlphaAssetSelector
+
+    sel = AlphaAssetSelector()
+    assert sel.asset_bucket_ban_set is None
+    assert sel.asset_bucket_assignments == {}
+
+
+# ── AEM per-bucket MAE_MULT ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_mae_mult_b3_disables_stop():
+    """B3 (natural winners) is configured with None → MAE_STOP is skipped even
+    at huge MAE. Giveback/time still apply."""
+    from adaptive_exit.adaptive_exit_engine import MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET
+
+    assert MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET[3] is None
+
+
+def test_mae_mult_b4_is_strict():
+    """B4 (gross-negative alpha) gets a tight 2.0× stop — cut fast."""
+    from adaptive_exit.adaptive_exit_engine import MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET
+
+    assert MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET[4] == 2.0
+
+
+def test_mae_mult_b6_is_wide():
+    """B6 (extreme vol) gets a wide 6.0× band — noise tolerance."""
+    from adaptive_exit.adaptive_exit_engine import MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET
+
+    assert MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET[6] == 6.0
+
+
+def test_mae_mult_default_fallback_matches_legacy_constant():
+    """Unknown bucket_id falls back to MAE_MULT_TIER1 (the pre-sprint constant)."""
+    from adaptive_exit.adaptive_exit_engine import MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET, MAE_MULT_TIER1
+
+    unknown_bucket = 99
+    assert MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET.get(unknown_bucket, MAE_MULT_TIER1) == MAE_MULT_TIER1
+
+
+# ── EsoF label rename (NEUTRAL → UNKNOWN) ────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_esof_advisor_emits_unknown_not_neutral_in_midband():
+    """The advisor's mid-band score must produce UNKNOWN, not NEUTRAL. Guards
+    against accidental revert of the rename (the semantic shift — 'signals in
+    conflict' — is load-bearing for the regime gate)."""
+    import Observability.esof_advisor as esof_advisor  # noqa: N813
+
+    # Sanity-scan source for the rename; the computed advisor call requires
+    # deep Hz/CH plumbing we don't want to mock here.
+    src = open(esof_advisor.__file__).read()
+    assert 'advisory_label = "UNKNOWN"' in src
+    assert 'advisory_label = "NEUTRAL"' not in src
+
+
+def test_esof_gate_tables_accept_both_unknown_and_neutral_keys():
+    """S6_MULT and IRP_PARAMS must carry both UNKNOWN and NEUTRAL keys so that
+    historical CH replays (old label) resolve the same as new advisor output
+    (new label)."""
+    from Observability.esof_gate import S6_MULT, IRP_PARAMS
+
+    assert "UNKNOWN" in S6_MULT and "NEUTRAL" in S6_MULT
+    assert S6_MULT["UNKNOWN"] == S6_MULT["NEUTRAL"]
+    assert "UNKNOWN" in IRP_PARAMS and "NEUTRAL" in IRP_PARAMS
+    assert IRP_PARAMS["UNKNOWN"] == IRP_PARAMS["NEUTRAL"]
+
+
+# ── Int-leverage gate ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_int_leverage_gate_default_is_1x_min_clamped():
+    """The in-source rule is `leverage_int = 1` plus min/abs_max clamp. Guards
+    against anyone accidentally switching to Option 1 or 2 without running the
+    winrate analysis first."""
+    import pathlib
+
+    src = pathlib.Path(
+        "nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/esf_alpha_orchestrator.py"
+    ).read_text()
+    # Fixed default must be explicit and annotated.
+    assert "leverage_int = 1" in src
+    assert "FIXED PENDING ANALYSIS" in src
+    # Both candidate rules must remain documented in-source for the flip PR.
+    assert "round-half-up" in src
+    assert "banker's round" in src

prod/configs/green.yml

@@ -66,3 +66,47 @@ hazelcast:
   imap_pnl:   DOLPHIN_PNL_GREEN
   imap_state: DOLPHIN_STATE_GREEN
   state_map:  DOLPHIN_STATE_GREEN   # capital persistence map (was defaulting to BLUE)
+
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# GREEN S6/EsoF/AEM sprint (exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21).
+# BLUE (prod/configs/blue.yml) does NOT set these keys → orchestrator loads them
+# as None/False → BLUE math is byte-identical pre-sprint. To disable any branch
+# on GREEN, comment the corresponding key — single kill-switch per feature.
+# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+# Strictly-zero buckets banned at the ranking layer (selector skips them so the
+# slot is handed to the next-best asset — does NOT waste capital with 0× sizing).
+# Fractional buckets (B0/B1/B5) stay tradeable via s6_size_table below.
+asset_bucket_ban_set: [4]
+
+# Pointer to the generated S6 coefficient table. prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py
+# regenerates this file on the configured cadence (env S6_RECOMPUTE_INTERVAL_DAYS).
+# Bucket → per-entry notional multiplier applied at esf_alpha_orchestrator.py single-site.
+s6_table_path: prod/configs/green_s6_table.yml
+
+# Inline fallback used when s6_table_path is missing (bootstrap / first-run):
+# matches the S6 row from prod/docs/CRITICAL_ASSET_PICKING_BRACKETS_VS._ROI_WR_AT_TRADES.md.
+# B4 is absent (banned above); B2 is absent (= 1.0x, no-op).
+s6_size_table:
+  0: 0.40
+  1: 0.30
+  3: 2.00
+  5: 0.50
+  6: 1.50
+
+# EsoF regime gate lives at the top of _try_entry (orchestrator single-site).
+# mult == 0 → regime-wide skip (no selector/sizer work). UNKNOWN replaces NEUTRAL
+# (signals-in-conflict is empirically the worst ROI state).
+esof_sizing_table:
+  FAVORABLE:     1.20
+  MILD_POSITIVE: 0.60
+  UNKNOWN:       0.25
+  NEUTRAL:       0.25    # alias — historical CH rows / stale HZ snapshots
+  MILD_NEGATIVE: 0.00
+  UNFAVORABLE:   0.00
+
+# Target exchanges (e.g. Binance) require integer leverage. Default 1x pending
+# CH-trade-walk in prod/scripts/analyze_leverage_winrate.py to pick the rounding
+# rule (round-half-up vs banker's round vs stay-at-1x). leverage_raw is preserved
+# in CH trade_events + NDPosition for that analysis.
+use_int_leverage: true

prod/configs/green_s6_table.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+# GREEN S6 bucket sizing table
+# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# Auto-generated by prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py.
+# Bucket → per-entry notional multiplier applied at the orchestrator single-site
+# (`nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/esf_alpha_orchestrator.py`).
+#
+# Semantics:
+#   value  == 1.0  → no-op (same as BLUE)
+#   value  <  1.0  → size down (fractional)
+#   value  >  1.0  → size up (leaned-into bucket)
+#   absent bucket  → 1.0  (no-op)
+#   value  == 0.0  → prefer banning via `asset_bucket_ban_set` in green.yml
+#                     (selector-ban reroutes to next-ranked asset;
+#                      sizer 0× would waste the slot)
+#
+# Regeneration cadence: env S6_RECOMPUTE_INTERVAL_DAYS (default 30).
+# If any bucket's net-PnL moves > ~20% between runs, the recompute flow flags
+# the change in CH `dolphin.s6_recompute_log` for manual review before apply.
+# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+meta:
+  generated_at: "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z"   # replaced on each recompute
+  source_branch: "exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21"
+  n_trades: 0                            # populated by recompute script
+  note: "Bootstrap stub — regenerate with prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py before staging"
+
+# Bucket → multiplier. B4 excluded (banned at selector). B2 omitted (= 1.0 no-op).
+# Seeded from the S6 scenario in prod/docs/CRITICAL_ASSET_PICKING_BRACKETS_VS._ROI_WR_AT_TRADES.md.
+buckets:
+  0: 0.40
+  1: 0.30
+  3: 2.00
+  5: 0.50
+  6: 1.50

prod/docs/BRANCHING_CONVENTION.md

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+# DOLPHIN Branching Convention
+
+Established 2026-04-21. The DOLPHIN repo (Gitea: `100.119.158.61:3000/hjnormey/DOLPHIN`) uses a fork-per-experiment pattern to support parallel multi-algo benchmarking on shared infrastructure (ClickHouse, HZ, MHS).
+
+## Branches
+
+| Branch         | Role                                                            |
+|----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
+| `master`       | Production baseline. Only merged-and-validated work lands here. |
+| `exp/<slug>`   | Experiment branches. Named `exp/<feature>-<YYYY-MM-DD>`.        |
+
+Merge to `master` only after the experiment has passed staging validation (integration replay reproduces expected counterfactual, parity tests pass, 24h staging monitor clean).
+
+## Active / recent experiments
+
+- `exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21` — S6 asset picker, EsoF regime gate (NEUTRAL→UNKNOWN), AEM shadow completeness, integer-leverage gate.
+
+## Infrastructure suffixing (avoid collisions on shared CH / HZ / MHS)
+
+When an experiment writes runtime state to shared infra, **suffix the table or map name with the branch slug** so parallel experiments don't stomp each other.
+
+Examples:
+- ClickHouse tables: `adaptive_exit_shadow_exp_green_s6`, `trade_events_exp_green_s6`
+- HZ maps: `DOLPHIN_PNL_GREEN_S6`, `DOLPHIN_FEATURES_EXP_GREEN_S6`
+- Supervisord program names: `dolphin-green-exp-s6`
+
+The suffix slug is the part of the branch name after `exp/`, with `/` → `_` and `-` → `_` as needed.
+
+## Workflow
+
+1. Branch from `master`: `git checkout master && git pull && git checkout -b exp/<feature>-<YYYY-MM-DD>`.
+2. All experiment code, configs, CH DDL, supervisord entries, and docs land on the experiment branch.
+3. Staging deploy runs on the experiment branch only.
+4. Validation + monitor period.
+5. If the experiment is kept, open a merge request to `master`. If it's abandoned, leave the branch for reference — do not delete immediately (post-mortem value).
+
+## Commit identity
+
+Commits should use the operator's Gitea-bound identity (`hjnormey@gmail.com`). Agents making commits should pass identity per-command via `git -c user.email=... -c user.name=...` rather than mutating global config.

prod/docs/ESOF_LABEL_MIGRATION.md

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+# EsoF Label Migration — `NEUTRAL` → `UNKNOWN`
+
+Landed in `exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21` on 2026-04-21.
+
+## What changed
+
+`Observability/esof_advisor.py` emits `UNKNOWN` where it previously emitted `NEUTRAL` (mid-band, `-0.05 < advisory_score <= 0.05`). All downstream consumers keep a `NEUTRAL` alias so historical CH rows and replays continue to resolve.
+
+## Why
+
+Findings from the 637-trade EsoF retrospective (`prod/docs/EsoF_BLUE_IMPLEMENTATION_CURR_AND_RESEARCH.md`) show the mid-band isn't a benign middle — it's the **worst-ROI regime**, corresponding to states where the constituent liq/session/DoW/slot/cell signals are **in conflict**. "NEUTRAL" connoted "no strong read, probably fine"; the data says the opposite. The orchestrator-top EsoF gate uses `UNKNOWN` → `0.25x` sizer mult to encode "stand mostly aside" instead of "trade normally".
+
+## Touched files
+
+- `Observability/esof_advisor.py` — emitter renamed; `LABEL_COLOR` carries both keys.
+- `Observability/esof_gate.py` — `S6_MULT`, `IRP_PARAMS`, Strategy A mult map all keyed on `UNKNOWN` with a `NEUTRAL` alias entry.
+- `nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/esf_alpha_orchestrator.py` — new GREEN-only `esof_sizing_table` looks up by label; missing/None label defaults to `UNKNOWN`.
+
+## CH / HZ
+
+- CH `dolphin.trade_events`, `dolphin.esof_advisory_log`: no DDL change (labels are strings). Historical rows keep `NEUTRAL`; new rows get `UNKNOWN`. Any dashboard/query filtering on the label needs to `IN ('NEUTRAL','UNKNOWN')` or be migrated.
+- HZ `DOLPHIN_FEATURES.esof_advisor_latest`: next advisor tick overwrites with `UNKNOWN`. Consumers reading stale snapshots across the cutover should treat both as equivalent.
+
+## Rollback
+
+Revert the three files above. The `NEUTRAL` alias means a partial rollback (advisor only) is safe without cascading breakage.

prod/s6_recompute_flow.py

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Prefect flow — periodically recompute S6 bucket sizing coefficients.
+
+Cadence
+───────
+Controlled by env `S6_RECOMPUTE_INTERVAL_DAYS` (default 30). The flow is
+idempotent: running it more often than the interval just produces a fresh
+YAML and markdown report; nothing is auto-promoted.
+
+Kill-switch
+───────────
+Set env `S6_RECOMPUTE_DISABLED=1` to skip — the flow logs and exits 0.
+
+Wiring into supervisord/cron
+────────────────────────────
+Run this flow on the supervisord host. Recommended: daily timer that guards
+internally on the last-run timestamp in `dolphin.s6_recompute_log`, or a
+Prefect deployment with a cron schedule `0 3 * * *` and the interval env set.
+
+This flow shells out to `prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py` rather
+than importing it so that the script remains independently runnable without
+requiring Prefect — honours the plan's "recompute works whether or not
+Prefect is installed" requirement.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import os
+import subprocess
+import sys
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
+from pathlib import Path
+
+try:
+    from prefect import flow, task, get_run_logger
+except ImportError:  # pragma: no cover — allow import-only smoke tests
+    def flow(fn=None, **_kw):
+        if fn is None:
+            return lambda f: f
+        return fn
+    def task(fn=None, **_kw):
+        if fn is None:
+            return lambda f: f
+        return fn
+    def get_run_logger():  # pragma: no cover
+        import logging
+        return logging.getLogger("s6_recompute_flow")
+
+
+REPO_ROOT    = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+RECOMPUTE_PY = REPO_ROOT / "prod" / "scripts" / "recompute_s6_coefficients.py"
+TABLE_YML    = REPO_ROOT / "prod" / "configs" / "green_s6_table.yml"
+
+
+@task
+def check_interval_elapsed(interval_days: int) -> bool:
+    """Return True if the YAML is missing OR older than the interval."""
+    if not TABLE_YML.exists():
+        return True
+    try:
+        import yaml
+        doc = yaml.safe_load(TABLE_YML.read_text()) or {}
+        ts_str = (doc.get("meta") or {}).get("generated_at", "")
+        if not ts_str:
+            return True
+        ts = datetime.fromisoformat(ts_str.rstrip("Z"))
+        return datetime.utcnow() - ts >= timedelta(days=interval_days)
+    except Exception:
+        # Any parsing trouble → safer to recompute
+        return True
+
+
+@task
+def run_recompute(strategy: str, since: str, min_trades: int, source_branch: str) -> int:
+    logger = get_run_logger()
+    cmd = [
+        sys.executable, str(RECOMPUTE_PY),
+        "--strategy", strategy,
+        "--since",    since,
+        "--min-trades-per-bucket", str(min_trades),
+        "--source-branch", source_branch,
+    ]
+    logger.info(f"[s6_recompute_flow] exec: {' '.join(cmd)}")
+    rc = subprocess.call(cmd, cwd=str(REPO_ROOT))
+    logger.info(f"[s6_recompute_flow] exit code: {rc}")
+    return rc
+
+
+@flow(name="s6-recompute")
+def s6_recompute_flow(
+    strategy: str = "blue",
+    since: str = "2026-01-01",
+    min_trades: int = 20,
+    source_branch: str = "exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21",
+):
+    logger = get_run_logger()
+
+    if os.environ.get("S6_RECOMPUTE_DISABLED") == "1":
+        logger.info("[s6_recompute_flow] disabled via S6_RECOMPUTE_DISABLED=1 — skipping")
+        return 0
+
+    try:
+        interval_days = int(os.environ.get("S6_RECOMPUTE_INTERVAL_DAYS", "30"))
+    except ValueError:
+        interval_days = 30
+
+    due = check_interval_elapsed(interval_days)
+    if not due:
+        logger.info(f"[s6_recompute_flow] interval not elapsed ({interval_days}d) — skipping")
+        return 0
+
+    return run_recompute(strategy, since, min_trades, source_branch)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(int(s6_recompute_flow() or 0))

prod/scripts/analyze_leverage_winrate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Leverage → WR / net-PnL analysis over CH `dolphin.trade_events`.
+
+Purpose
+───────
+The target exchanges (Binance futures) require integer leverage. The GREEN
+orchestrator single-site (`esf_alpha_orchestrator.py`) therefore rounds
+leverage to an integer at entry time; the current default is FIXED 1x with
+two candidate rounding rules commented in source, pending this analysis:
+
+  Option 1 (round-half-up, conservative): int(math.floor(raw + 0.5)), min=1
+  Option 2 (banker's round, aggressive):  int(round(raw)),            min=1
+  Stay-at-1x (current default):           leverage_int = 1
+
+This script walks historical trades and, for every distinct leverage value
+observed (bucketed to a user-chosen step), reports per-bin WR, net-PnL,
+avg-MAE and sample count. The output report informs the rule choice.
+
+Decision rubric (documented in the generated report)
+────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  - Higher-lev bins show clearly better net-PnL w/ tight sample error → Option 2
+  - Flat / noisy signal across bins                                    → Option 1
+  - Higher-lev bins show WORSE net-PnL / mixed                         → stay 1x
+
+This script is read-only; it does not auto-apply a rule change.
+
+Usage
+─────
+  python prod/scripts/analyze_leverage_winrate.py \\
+      --strategy blue \\
+      --since 2026-01-01 \\
+      --step 0.5 \\
+      --out prod/docs/LEVERAGE_WINRATE_REPORT_2026-04-21.md
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import math
+import sys
+import urllib.parse
+import urllib.request
+from datetime import datetime
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
+
+CH_URL = "http://localhost:8123/"
+CH_HEADERS = {
+    "X-ClickHouse-User": "dolphin",
+    "X-ClickHouse-Key":  "dolphin_ch_2026",
+}
+
+
+def ch_query(sql: str) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    """Run a CH query returning JSONEachRow; raise if the HTTP call fails."""
+    qs = urllib.parse.urlencode({"query": sql + " FORMAT JSONEachRow"})
+    req = urllib.request.Request(f"{CH_URL}?{qs}", method="GET")
+    for k, v in CH_HEADERS.items():
+        req.add_header(k, v)
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=60) as resp:
+        body = resp.read().decode("utf-8", errors="replace")
+    rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+    for line in body.splitlines():
+        line = line.strip()
+        if line:
+            rows.append(json.loads(line))
+    return rows
+
+
+def bin_leverage(lev: float, step: float) -> float:
+    """Bucket leverage to `step`-wide bins, anchored at 0. Returns bin lower edge."""
+    if lev is None or not math.isfinite(lev) or lev <= 0:
+        return 0.0
+    return math.floor(lev / step) * step
+
+
+def load_trades(strategy: str, since: str, until: Optional[str]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    """Pull trade_events rows. Uses leverage_raw if present (post-sprint rows),
+    else falls back to leverage (pre-sprint rows on the same trade semantics).
+    """
+    where = [f"strategy = '{strategy}'", f"date >= toDate('{since}')"]
+    if until:
+        where.append(f"date <= toDate('{until}')")
+    where_sql = " AND ".join(where)
+
+    sql = (
+        "SELECT "
+        "    toDate(date) AS d, "
+        "    asset, "
+        "    coalesce(leverage_raw, leverage) AS lev_raw, "
+        "    leverage AS lev_effective, "
+        "    pnl, pnl_pct, "
+        "    (pnl_pct > 0) AS is_win, "
+        "    exit_reason "
+        f"FROM dolphin.trade_events WHERE {where_sql}"
+    )
+    return ch_query(sql)
+
+
+def aggregate(trades: List[Dict[str, Any]], step: float) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    bins: Dict[float, Dict[str, Any]] = {}
+    for t in trades:
+        lev = float(t.get("lev_raw") or 0.0)
+        b = bin_leverage(lev, step)
+        s = bins.setdefault(b, {
+            "bin_lo":      b,
+            "bin_hi":      b + step,
+            "n":           0,
+            "wins":        0,
+            "net_pnl":     0.0,
+            "net_pnl_pct": 0.0,
+        })
+        s["n"] += 1
+        if int(t.get("is_win", 0)):
+            s["wins"] += 1
+        s["net_pnl"]     += float(t.get("pnl") or 0.0)
+        s["net_pnl_pct"] += float(t.get("pnl_pct") or 0.0)
+
+    out = []
+    for b, s in sorted(bins.items()):
+        n = max(1, s["n"])
+        out.append({
+            "bin":          f"{s['bin_lo']:.2f}–{s['bin_hi']:.2f}x",
+            "n":            s["n"],
+            "wr_pct":       round(100.0 * s["wins"] / n, 2),
+            "avg_pnl_pct":  round(s["net_pnl_pct"] / n * 100.0, 3),
+            "net_pnl":      round(s["net_pnl"], 2),
+        })
+    return out
+
+
+def render_markdown(rows: List[Dict[str, Any]],
+                    strategy: str, since: str, until: Optional[str],
+                    step: float, total: int) -> str:
+    hdr = (
+        "# Leverage → Winrate / Net-PnL Analysis\n\n"
+        f"- Strategy: `{strategy}`\n"
+        f"- Window: `{since}` → `{until or 'now'}`\n"
+        f"- Leverage bin step: `{step}x`\n"
+        f"- Total trades in scope: `{total}`\n"
+        f"- Generated: `{datetime.utcnow().isoformat(timespec='seconds')}Z`\n\n"
+        "## Per-bin aggregates\n\n"
+        "| Leverage bin | Trades | WR % | Avg PnL % | Net PnL |\n"
+        "|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n"
+    )
+    body = "\n".join(
+        f"| {r['bin']} | {r['n']} | {r['wr_pct']} | {r['avg_pnl_pct']} | {r['net_pnl']} |"
+        for r in rows
+    )
+    decision = (
+        "\n\n## Decision rubric (copy into the orchestrator comment block)\n\n"
+        "- Higher-lev bins show clearly better net-PnL w/ tight sample error → **Option 2** (banker's round, min=1)\n"
+        "- Flat / noisy signal across bins                                   → **Option 1** (round-half-up, min=1)\n"
+        "- Higher-lev bins show WORSE net-PnL / mixed                        → **stay at 1x** (current default)\n\n"
+        "_Flipping the rule is a follow-up PR — this script is read-only._\n"
+    )
+    return hdr + body + decision
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__, formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter)
+    ap.add_argument("--strategy", default="blue",
+                    help="trade_events.strategy value to filter on (default: blue — richest historical set)")
+    ap.add_argument("--since", default="2026-01-01", help="inclusive start date (YYYY-MM-DD)")
+    ap.add_argument("--until", default=None, help="inclusive end date (YYYY-MM-DD); default = now")
+    ap.add_argument("--step", type=float, default=1.0, help="leverage bin width (e.g. 0.5 or 1.0)")
+    ap.add_argument("--out", default="prod/docs/LEVERAGE_WINRATE_REPORT.md",
+                    help="output report path (markdown)")
+    args = ap.parse_args()
+
+    trades = load_trades(args.strategy, args.since, args.until)
+    if not trades:
+        print(f"No trades matched (strategy={args.strategy}, since={args.since}).", file=sys.stderr)
+        return 1
+
+    rows = aggregate(trades, args.step)
+    md = render_markdown(rows, args.strategy, args.since, args.until, args.step, total=len(trades))
+
+    out_path = Path(args.out)
+    out_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    out_path.write_text(md)
+    print(f"Wrote {out_path} ({len(rows)} bins, {len(trades)} trades)")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py

@@ -0,0 +1,341 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Recompute S6 bucket sizing coefficients from fresh `dolphin.trade_events`.
+
+Regenerates:
+  - prod/configs/green_s6_table.yml   (consumed by the GREEN orchestrator single-site)
+  - prod/docs/S6_COEFFICIENTS_REPORT_<YYYY-MM-DD>.md (human-readable summary)
+
+Variance guard
+──────────────
+If any bucket's net-PnL moves more than `--variance-threshold` (default 20%)
+relative to the prior pinned table, we STILL write the new YAML (so replay/debug
+cycles remain reproducible) but also write a row to `dolphin.s6_recompute_log`
+so a human can review before promoting to staging/prod.
+
+Usage
+─────
+  python prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py \\
+      --strategy blue --since 2026-01-01 --min-trades-per-bucket 20
+
+Intended to be driven by `prod/s6_recompute_flow.py` (Prefect) on a 30-day cadence.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import pickle
+import sys
+import urllib.parse
+import urllib.request
+from datetime import datetime
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
+
+CH_URL = "http://localhost:8123/"
+CH_HEADERS = {
+    "X-ClickHouse-User": "dolphin",
+    "X-ClickHouse-Key":  "dolphin_ch_2026",
+}
+
+DEFAULT_BUCKET_PKL = Path("adaptive_exit/models/bucket_assignments.pkl")
+DEFAULT_TABLE_YML  = Path("prod/configs/green_s6_table.yml")
+REPORT_DIR         = Path("prod/docs")
+
+
+def ch_query(sql: str) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    qs = urllib.parse.urlencode({"query": sql + " FORMAT JSONEachRow"})
+    req = urllib.request.Request(f"{CH_URL}?{qs}", method="GET")
+    for k, v in CH_HEADERS.items():
+        req.add_header(k, v)
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=60) as resp:
+        body = resp.read().decode("utf-8", errors="replace")
+    rows: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
+    for line in body.splitlines():
+        line = line.strip()
+        if line:
+            rows.append(json.loads(line))
+    return rows
+
+
+def ch_insert(table: str, row: Dict[str, Any], db: str = "dolphin") -> None:
+    """Best-effort insert into `{db}.{table}` (JSONEachRow). Swallows errors."""
+    body = (json.dumps(row) + "\n").encode()
+    qs = urllib.parse.urlencode({
+        "database": db,
+        "query":    f"INSERT INTO {table} FORMAT JSONEachRow",
+    })
+    req = urllib.request.Request(f"{CH_URL}?{qs}", data=body, method="POST")
+    for k, v in CH_HEADERS.items():
+        req.add_header(k, v)
+    try:
+        urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10)
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"[s6_recompute] CH insert warning: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
+
+
+def ensure_recompute_log() -> None:
+    ddl = (
+        "CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS dolphin.s6_recompute_log ("
+        "ts          DateTime64(6, 'UTC'),"
+        "ts_day      Date MATERIALIZED toDate(ts),"
+        "bucket_id   UInt8,"
+        "n_trades    UInt32,"
+        "wr_pct      Float32,"
+        "net_pnl     Float64,"
+        "prior_net   Nullable(Float64),"
+        "delta_pct   Nullable(Float32),"
+        "new_mult    Float32,"
+        "prior_mult  Nullable(Float32),"
+        "flagged     UInt8"
+        ") ENGINE = MergeTree()"
+        " ORDER BY (ts_day, bucket_id, ts)"
+        " TTL ts_day + INTERVAL 365 DAY"
+    )
+    req = urllib.request.Request(CH_URL, data=ddl.encode(), method="POST")
+    for k, v in CH_HEADERS.items():
+        req.add_header(k, v)
+    try:
+        urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10)
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"[s6_recompute] could not ensure log table: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
+
+
+def load_bucket_assignments(path: Path) -> Dict[str, int]:
+    with open(path, "rb") as f:
+        doc = pickle.load(f)
+    assignments = doc.get("assignments") if isinstance(doc, dict) else None
+    if not isinstance(assignments, dict):
+        raise RuntimeError(f"{path}: expected dict with 'assignments' key")
+    return {str(k): int(v) for k, v in assignments.items()}
+
+
+def pull_trades(strategy: str, since: str, until: Optional[str]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    where = [f"strategy = '{strategy}'", f"date >= toDate('{since}')"]
+    if until:
+        where.append(f"date <= toDate('{until}')")
+    where_sql = " AND ".join(where)
+    sql = (
+        "SELECT asset, pnl, pnl_pct, exit_reason "
+        f"FROM dolphin.trade_events WHERE {where_sql}"
+    )
+    return ch_query(sql)
+
+
+def compute_bucket_stats(
+    trades: List[Dict[str, Any]],
+    assignments: Dict[str, int],
+    buckets: List[int],
+    min_trades: int,
+) -> Dict[int, Dict[str, float]]:
+    stats: Dict[int, Dict[str, float]] = {b: {"n": 0, "wins": 0, "net_pnl": 0.0, "net_pnl_pct": 0.0} for b in buckets}
+    for t in trades:
+        asset = str(t.get("asset", ""))
+        b = assignments.get(asset)
+        if b is None or b not in stats:
+            continue
+        stats[b]["n"] += 1
+        stats[b]["wins"] += 1 if float(t.get("pnl_pct") or 0.0) > 0 else 0
+        stats[b]["net_pnl"]     += float(t.get("pnl") or 0.0)
+        stats[b]["net_pnl_pct"] += float(t.get("pnl_pct") or 0.0)
+
+    out = {}
+    for b, s in stats.items():
+        n = s["n"] if s["n"] >= min_trades else s["n"]
+        if s["n"] == 0:
+            out[b] = {"n": 0, "wr": 0.0, "avg_pnl_pct": 0.0, "net_pnl": 0.0, "enough": False}
+        else:
+            out[b] = {
+                "n":           s["n"],
+                "wr":          s["wins"] / s["n"],
+                "avg_pnl_pct": s["net_pnl_pct"] / s["n"],
+                "net_pnl":     s["net_pnl"],
+                "enough":      s["n"] >= min_trades,
+            }
+    return out
+
+
+def stats_to_multipliers(stats: Dict[int, Dict[str, float]]) -> Dict[int, float]:
+    """Translate per-bucket aggregate outcomes into a size multiplier.
+
+    Conservative mapping (keeps the file a documented, deterministic function —
+    not an ML output). Brackets match the S6 reference row in
+    prod/docs/CRITICAL_ASSET_PICKING_BRACKETS_VS._ROI_WR_AT_TRADES.md.
+
+        avg_pnl_pct >  0.015 → 2.0  (lean in)
+        avg_pnl_pct >  0.005 → 1.5
+        avg_pnl_pct >  0.001 → 1.0  (omit from YAML — no-op)
+        avg_pnl_pct >  0.000 → 0.5
+        avg_pnl_pct > -0.002 → 0.3
+        avg_pnl_pct > -0.005 → 0.0  (ban candidate — see `asset_bucket_ban_set`)
+        otherwise            → 0.0
+    """
+    out: Dict[int, float] = {}
+    for b, s in stats.items():
+        if not s.get("enough"):
+            continue  # skip thin buckets — default to no-op (absent = 1.0x)
+        apct = s["avg_pnl_pct"]
+        if   apct >  0.015: out[b] = 2.0
+        elif apct >  0.005: out[b] = 1.5
+        elif apct >  0.001: pass  # no-op (1.0x)
+        elif apct >  0.000: out[b] = 0.5
+        elif apct > -0.002: out[b] = 0.3
+        else:               out[b] = 0.0
+    return out
+
+
+def load_prior_table(path: Path) -> Dict[int, float]:
+    if not path.exists():
+        return {}
+    try:
+        import yaml
+        doc = yaml.safe_load(path.read_text()) or {}
+        buckets = doc.get("buckets") or {}
+        return {int(k): float(v) for k, v in buckets.items()}
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"[s6_recompute] prior table load warning: {e}", file=sys.stderr)
+        return {}
+
+
+def write_table_yml(path: Path, buckets: Dict[int, float], meta: Dict[str, Any]) -> None:
+    path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    lines = [
+        "# GREEN S6 bucket sizing table — auto-generated, do not edit by hand.",
+        "# Consumed by nautilus_dolphin/nautilus_dolphin/nautilus/esf_alpha_orchestrator.py",
+        "# at the single-site notional application.",
+        "",
+        "meta:",
+        f"  generated_at: \"{meta['generated_at']}\"",
+        f"  source_branch: \"{meta.get('source_branch', '')}\"",
+        f"  strategy: \"{meta['strategy']}\"",
+        f"  n_trades: {meta['n_trades']}",
+        f"  min_trades_per_bucket: {meta['min_trades']}",
+        "",
+        "buckets:",
+    ]
+    for b in sorted(buckets):
+        lines.append(f"  {b}: {buckets[b]:.2f}")
+    path.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
+
+
+def write_report(path: Path, stats: Dict[int, Dict[str, float]],
+                 new_table: Dict[int, float], prior_table: Dict[int, float],
+                 meta: Dict[str, Any], flagged: List[int]) -> None:
+    path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    lines = [
+        f"# S6 Coefficient Recompute — {meta['generated_at']}",
+        "",
+        f"- Strategy: `{meta['strategy']}`",
+        f"- Window: `{meta['since']}` → `{meta.get('until') or 'now'}`",
+        f"- Total trades: `{meta['n_trades']}`",
+        f"- Min trades per bucket: `{meta['min_trades']}`",
+        "",
+        "## Per-bucket stats",
+        "",
+        "| Bucket | Trades | WR % | Avg PnL % | Net PnL | New mult | Prior mult | Flagged |",
+        "|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|:---:|",
+    ]
+    for b in sorted(stats):
+        s = stats[b]
+        new = new_table.get(b, 1.0)
+        prior = prior_table.get(b, 1.0)
+        flag = "⚠" if b in flagged else ""
+        lines.append(
+            f"| {b} | {s['n']} | {100*s['wr']:.2f} | {100*s['avg_pnl_pct']:.3f} | "
+            f"{s['net_pnl']:.2f} | {new:.2f} | {prior:.2f} | {flag} |"
+        )
+    if flagged:
+        lines += [
+            "",
+            "## ⚠ Flagged for manual review",
+            "",
+            "The following buckets moved more than the variance threshold since the",
+            "prior pinned table. The new YAML was written but should be reviewed",
+            "before promotion to staging/prod — see `dolphin.s6_recompute_log`.",
+            "",
+            "| Bucket | Prior net | New net | Δ% |",
+            "|---:|---:|---:|---:|",
+        ]
+        for b in flagged:
+            prior_net = prior_table.get(f"_net_{b}")  # may be absent
+            lines.append(f"| {b} | — | {stats[b]['net_pnl']:.2f} | — |")
+    path.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__, formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter)
+    ap.add_argument("--strategy", default="blue",
+                    help="trade_events.strategy used for historical grounding (BLUE by default; richest dataset)")
+    ap.add_argument("--since", default="2026-01-01")
+    ap.add_argument("--until", default=None)
+    ap.add_argument("--min-trades-per-bucket", dest="min_trades", type=int, default=20)
+    ap.add_argument("--variance-threshold", type=float, default=0.20,
+                    help="fraction move in bucket net-PnL that flags a bucket for review (default 0.20 = 20%%)")
+    ap.add_argument("--bucket-pkl", default=str(DEFAULT_BUCKET_PKL),
+                    help="path to bucket_assignments.pkl")
+    ap.add_argument("--out-yml", default=str(DEFAULT_TABLE_YML))
+    ap.add_argument("--out-report", default=None,
+                    help="report path (default: prod/docs/S6_COEFFICIENTS_REPORT_<date>.md)")
+    ap.add_argument("--source-branch", default="",
+                    help="branch slug to stamp into the YAML frontmatter for traceability")
+    args = ap.parse_args()
+
+    assignments = load_bucket_assignments(Path(args.bucket_pkl))
+    buckets_seen = sorted(set(assignments.values()))
+    trades = pull_trades(args.strategy, args.since, args.until)
+    stats = compute_bucket_stats(trades, assignments, buckets_seen, args.min_trades)
+    new_table = stats_to_multipliers(stats)
+
+    prior_table = load_prior_table(Path(args.out_yml))
+
+    # Variance guard — flag buckets whose net-PnL moved more than the threshold.
+    flagged: List[int] = []
+    for b, s in stats.items():
+        if not s.get("enough"):
+            continue
+        prior_mult = prior_table.get(b)
+        new_mult   = new_table.get(b, 1.0)
+        if prior_mult is None:
+            continue
+        denom = max(abs(prior_mult), 1e-6)
+        if abs(new_mult - prior_mult) / denom > args.variance_threshold:
+            flagged.append(b)
+
+    generated_at = datetime.utcnow().isoformat(timespec="seconds") + "Z"
+    meta = {
+        "generated_at": generated_at,
+        "source_branch": args.source_branch,
+        "strategy": args.strategy,
+        "since":    args.since,
+        "until":    args.until,
+        "n_trades": len(trades),
+        "min_trades": args.min_trades,
+    }
+
+    write_table_yml(Path(args.out_yml), new_table, meta)
+
+    out_report = Path(args.out_report) if args.out_report else REPORT_DIR / f"S6_COEFFICIENTS_REPORT_{generated_at[:10]}.md"
+    write_report(out_report, stats, new_table, prior_table, meta, flagged)
+
+    ensure_recompute_log()
+    for b in flagged:
+        ch_insert("s6_recompute_log", {
+            "ts": int(datetime.utcnow().timestamp() * 1_000_000),
+            "bucket_id": int(b),
+            "n_trades":  int(stats[b]["n"]),
+            "wr_pct":    float(100.0 * stats[b]["wr"]),
+            "net_pnl":   float(stats[b]["net_pnl"]),
+            "prior_net": None,
+            "delta_pct": None,
+            "new_mult":  float(new_table.get(b, 1.0)),
+            "prior_mult": float(prior_table.get(b, 1.0)),
+            "flagged":   1,
+        })
+
+    print(f"Wrote {args.out_yml} ({len(new_table)} active buckets, {len(flagged)} flagged)")
+    print(f"Wrote {out_report}")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())