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exp/green-s6-esof-aem-shadow-2026-04-21
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Author SHA1 Message Date
hjnormey
ea65e2d699 fix(s6): suspend S6 sizing coefficients — point-in-time overfitting 
The S6 multipliers (B3→2.0×, B6→1.5×, etc.) were derived from the ~600-trade
window ending 2026-04-19. ~100+ trades since that window show regime reversal —
bucket PnL rankings did not hold out-of-sample. Locking historical per-bucket
performance into operational sizing is overfitting at any fixed point-in-time.

Changes:
- green.yml: s6_size_table → null (uniform 1.0× sizing until coefficients
  demonstrate multi-window out-of-sample stability)
- s6_table_path commented out (same reason)
- B4 ban RETAINED: structural exclusion (only gross-negative bucket,
  -$100 gross before fees, R:R 0.80, WR 34.8%) not a time-window call
- AEM MAE_MULT_BY_BUCKET RETAINED: grounded in asset vol characteristics,
  not point-in-time PnL

Infrastructure (routing layer, recompute script, Prefect flow) fully intact.
Re-enable: set s6_table_path or populate s6_size_table once recompute_s6
demonstrates stable multi-window out-of-sample variance (< 20% guard).

Post-mortem note added to CRITICAL_ASSET_PICKING_BRACKETS_VS._ROI_WR_AT_TRADES.md
including system naming clarification (old GREEN vs new-GREEN vs BLUE).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-04-25 14:16:24 +02:00
hjnormey
36d263eb91 feat(config/scripts): GREEN config wiring + S6 recompute tooling 
prod/configs/green.yml:
- asset_bucket_ban_set: [4] (B4 banned at selector level)
- s6_size_table: inline bootstrap multipliers (B0→0.4, B1→0.3, B3→2.0,
  B5→0.5, B6→1.5) matching CRITICAL_ASSET_PICKING S6 scenario
- esof_sizing_table: FAV→1.2, MILD_POS→0.6, UNKNOWN→0.25,
  MILD_NEG→0.0, UNFAV→0.0
- use_int_leverage: true (1x fixed pending winrate analysis)
- s6_table_path: pointer to generated YAML (recompute updates this)
BLUE (blue.yml) carries none of these keys → BLUE math unchanged.

prod/configs/green_s6_table.yml: bootstrap stub with frontmatter
(generated_at, source_branch, n_trades). Regenerated by recompute script.

prod/scripts/recompute_s6_coefficients.py:
  Queries trade_events, maps assets to KMeans buckets, derives per-bucket
  sizing mults. Variance guard: >20% net-PnL move flags bucket in
  dolphin.s6_recompute_log for manual review before promote.

prod/s6_recompute_flow.py:
  Prefect flow wrapping the recompute script. Cadence via
  S6_RECOMPUTE_INTERVAL_DAYS env (default 30). Kill-switch:
  S6_RECOMPUTE_DISABLED=1.

prod/scripts/analyze_leverage_winrate.py:
  Read-only walk of CH trade_events; bins trades by leverage_raw,
  emits per-bin WR/net-PnL/avg-MAE. Output informs the int-leverage
  rounding rule choice (Option 1 round-half-up vs Option 2 banker's round
  vs stay-at-1x). Does not auto-apply a rule change.

Plan refs: Tasks 3, 8, 10.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-04-22 06:08:08 +02:00
hjnormey
01c19662cb initial: import DOLPHIN baseline 2026-04-21 from dolphinng5_predict working tree 
Includes core prod + GREEN/BLUE subsystems:
- prod/ (BLUE harness, configs, scripts, docs)
- nautilus_dolphin/ (GREEN Nautilus-native impl + dvae/ preserved)
- adaptive_exit/ (AEM engine + models/bucket_assignments.pkl)
- Observability/ (EsoF advisor, TUI, dashboards)
- external_factors/ (EsoF producer)
- mc_forewarning_qlabs_fork/ (MC regime/envelope)

Excludes runtime caches, logs, backups, and reproducible artifacts per .gitignore.
 2026-04-21 16:58:38 +02:00