initial: import DOLPHIN baseline 2026-04-21 from dolphinng5_predict working tree

Includes core prod + GREEN/BLUE subsystems:
- prod/ (BLUE harness, configs, scripts, docs)
- nautilus_dolphin/ (GREEN Nautilus-native impl + dvae/ preserved)
- adaptive_exit/ (AEM engine + models/bucket_assignments.pkl)
- Observability/ (EsoF advisor, TUI, dashboards)
- external_factors/ (EsoF producer)
- mc_forewarning_qlabs_fork/ (MC regime/envelope)

Excludes runtime caches, logs, backups, and reproducible artifacts per .gitignore.

prod/start_exf.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+# ExF Fetcher Startup Script
+# ==========================
+# Starts the External Factors fetcher daemon for unattended operation.
+#
+# Usage:
+#   ./start_exf.sh              # Start daemon
+#   ./start_exf.sh stop         # Stop daemon
+#   ./start_exf.sh status       # Check status
+#   ./start_exf.sh restart      # Restart daemon
+
+SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
+LOG_FILE="/var/log/exf_fetcher.log"
+PID_FILE="/var/run/exf_fetcher.pid"
+WARMUP_SECONDS="${EXF_WARMUP:-15}"
+
+case "${1:-start}" in
+    start)
+        if [ -f "$PID_FILE" ] && kill -0 "$(cat "$PID_FILE")" 2>/dev/null; then
+            echo "ExF fetcher already running (PID: $(cat "$PID_FILE"))"
+            exit 0
+        fi
+        
+        echo "Starting ExF fetcher daemon..."
+        cd "$SCRIPT_DIR" || exit 1
+        
+        nohup python exf_fetcher_flow.py --warmup "$WARMUP_SECONDS" >> "$LOG_FILE" 2>&1 &
+        echo $! > "$PID_FILE"
+        
+        echo "ExF fetcher started with PID: $(cat "$PID_FILE")"
+        echo "Logs: tail -f $LOG_FILE"
+        
+        # Wait and verify
+        sleep 5
+        if kill -0 "$(cat "$PID_FILE")" 2>/dev/null; then
+            echo "✓ Process is running"
+        else
+            echo "✗ Process failed to start (check logs)"
+            exit 1
+        fi
+        ;;
+    
+    stop)
+        if [ -f "$PID_FILE" ]; then
+            PID=$(cat "$PID_FILE")
+            if kill -0 "$PID" 2>/dev/null; then
+                echo "Stopping ExF fetcher (PID: $PID)..."
+                kill "$PID"
+                sleep 2
+                if kill -0 "$PID" 2>/dev/null; then
+                    echo "Force killing..."
+                    kill -9 "$PID"
+                fi
+                echo "✓ Stopped"
+            else
+                echo "ExF fetcher not running"
+            fi
+            rm -f "$PID_FILE"
+        else
+            echo "No PID file found"
+        fi
+        ;;
+    
+    restart)
+        $0 stop
+        sleep 2
+        $0 start
+        ;;
+    
+    status)
+        if [ -f "$PID_FILE" ]; then
+            PID=$(cat "$PID_FILE")
+            if kill -0 "$PID" 2>/dev/null; then
+                echo "ExF fetcher is running (PID: $PID)"
+                ps -p "$PID" -o pid,etime,cmd
+                
+                # Check Hazelcast
+                echo ""
+                echo "Checking Hazelcast data..."
+                python3 << 'PYEOF'
+import sys
+sys.path.insert(0, '/mnt/dolphinng5_predict')
+try:
+    import hazelcast, json
+    client = hazelcast.HazelcastClient(cluster_name="dolphin", cluster_members=["localhost:5701"], connection_timeout=3.0)
+    data = client.get_map("DOLPHIN_FEATURES").blocking().get("exf_latest")
+    if data:
+        parsed = json.loads(data)
+        print(f"  ✓ Data flowing: {parsed.get('_ok_count', 0)} indicators")
+        print(f"  ✓ Last push: {parsed.get('_pushed_at', 'N/A')}")
+    client.shutdown()
+except Exception as e:
+    print(f"  ✗ Error: {e}")
+PYEOF
+            else
+                echo "ExF fetcher not running (stale PID file)"
+                rm -f "$PID_FILE"
+            fi
+        else
+            echo "ExF fetcher not running"
+        fi
+        ;;
+    
+    logs)
+        tail -f "$LOG_FILE"
+        ;;
+    
+    *)
+        echo "Usage: $0 {start|stop|restart|status|logs}"
+        exit 1
+        ;;
+esac