initial: import DOLPHIN baseline 2026-04-21 from dolphinng5_predict working tree

Includes core prod + GREEN/BLUE subsystems:
- prod/ (BLUE harness, configs, scripts, docs)
- nautilus_dolphin/ (GREEN Nautilus-native impl + dvae/ preserved)
- adaptive_exit/ (AEM engine + models/bucket_assignments.pkl)
- Observability/ (EsoF advisor, TUI, dashboards)
- external_factors/ (EsoF producer)
- mc_forewarning_qlabs_fork/ (MC regime/envelope)

Excludes runtime caches, logs, backups, and reproducible artifacts per .gitignore.

prod/services/example_watchdog_service.py

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""
+Example: System Watchdog Service using ServiceBase
+"""
+import asyncio
+from service_base import ServiceBase
+
+class WatchdogService(ServiceBase):
+    """
+    Survival Stack Watchdog - 10s check interval
+    """
+    def __init__(self):
+        super().__init__(
+            name='watchdog',
+            check_interval=10,  # Health check every 10s
+            max_retries=5,
+            notify_systemd=True
+        )
+        self.cat1_ok = True
+        self.cat2_ok = True
+        self.last_posture = 'APEX'
+        
+    async def run_cycle(self):
+        """Main cycle - runs every 10s"""
+        # Check all categories
+        await self._check_cat1_invariants()
+        await self._check_cat2_structural()
+        await self._check_cat3_microstructure()
+        await self._check_cat4_environmental()
+        await self._check_cat5_capital()
+        
+        # Compute posture
+        posture = self._compute_posture()
+        if posture != self.last_posture:
+            self.logger.warning(f"Posture change: {self.last_posture} -> {posture}")
+            self.last_posture = posture
+            
+        # Write to Hazelcast
+        await self._update_safety_ref(posture)
+        
+        # Sleep until next cycle
+        await asyncio.sleep(10)
+    
+    async def _check_cat1_invariants(self):
+        """Binary kill switches"""
+        # Check HZ quorum, heartbeat
+        pass
+    
+    async def _check_cat2_structural(self):
+        """MC-Forewarner staleness"""
+        pass
+    
+    async def _check_cat3_microstructure(self):
+        """OB depth/fill quality"""
+        pass
+    
+    async def _check_cat4_environmental(self):
+        """DVOL spike"""
+        pass
+    
+    async def _check_cat5_capital(self):
+        """Drawdown check"""
+        pass
+    
+    def _compute_posture(self) -> str:
+        """Compute Rm and map to posture"""
+        # Rm = Cat1 × Cat2 × Cat3 × Cat4 × Cat5
+        # Posture: APEX/STALKER/TURTLE/HIBERNATE
+        return 'APEX'
+    
+    async def _update_safety_ref(self, posture: str):
+        """Update DOLPHIN_SAFETY AtomicReference"""
+        pass
+    
+    async def health_check(self) -> bool:
+        """Watchdog health check"""
+        # If we're running, we're healthy
+        return True
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    service = WatchdogService()
+    service.run()