initial: import DOLPHIN baseline 2026-04-21 from dolphinng5_predict working tree

Includes core prod + GREEN/BLUE subsystems:
- prod/ (BLUE harness, configs, scripts, docs)
- nautilus_dolphin/ (GREEN Nautilus-native impl + dvae/ preserved)
- adaptive_exit/ (AEM engine + models/bucket_assignments.pkl)
- Observability/ (EsoF advisor, TUI, dashboards)
- external_factors/ (EsoF producer)
- mc_forewarning_qlabs_fork/ (MC regime/envelope)

Excludes runtime caches, logs, backups, and reproducible artifacts per .gitignore.

prod/services/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
+# Dolphin Userland Services
+
+**Server-grade service management without root!** Uses `systemd --user` for reliability.
+
+## 🚀 Quick Start
+
+```bash
+# Check status
+./service_manager.py status
+
+# Start all services
+./service_manager.py start
+
+# View logs
+./service_manager.py logs exf -f
+```
+
+## 📋 Service Overview
+
+| Service | File | Description | Interval |
+|---------|------|-------------|----------|
+| **exf** | `dolphin-exf.service` | External Factors (aggressive) | 0.5s |
+| **ob** | `dolphin-ob.service` | Order Book Streamer | 500ms |
+| **watchdog** | `dolphin-watchdog.service` | Survival Stack | 10s |
+| **mc** | `dolphin-mc.timer` | MC-Forewarner | 4h |
+
+## 🔧 Service Manager Commands
+
+```bash
+# Status
+./service_manager.py status          # All services
+./service_manager.py status exf      # Specific service
+
+# Control
+./service_manager.py start           # Start all
+./service_manager.py stop            # Stop all
+./service_manager.py restart exf     # Restart specific
+
+# Logs
+./service_manager.py logs exf        # Last 50 lines
+./service_manager.py logs exf -f     # Follow
+./service_manager.py logs exf -n 100 # Last 100 lines
+
+# Auto-start on boot
+./service_manager.py enable          # Enable all
+./service_manager.py disable         # Disable all
+
+# After editing .service files
+./service_manager.py reload          # Reload systemd
+```
+
+## 🏗️ Creating a New Service
+
+### Option 1: Full Service Base (Recommended)
+
+```python
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+from services.service_base import ServiceBase
+
+class MyService(ServiceBase):
+    def __init__(self):
+        super().__init__(
+            name='my-service',
+            check_interval=30,
+            max_retries=3,
+            notify_systemd=True
+        )
+    
+    async def run_cycle(self):
+        # Your logic here
+        await do_work()
+        await asyncio.sleep(1)  # Cycle interval
+    
+    async def health_check(self) -> bool:
+        # Optional: custom health check
+        return True
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    MyService().run()
+```
+
+Create systemd service file:
+```bash
+cat > ~/.config/systemd/user/dolphin-my.service << 'SERVICEFILE'
+[Unit]
+Description=My Service
+After=network.target
+
+[Service]
+Type=notify
+ExecStart=/usr/bin/python3 /path/to/my_service.py
+Restart=always
+RestartSec=5
+StandardOutput=journal
+StandardError=journal
+
+[Install]
+WantedBy=default.target
+SERVICEFILE
+
+# Enable and start
+systemctl --user daemon-reload
+systemctl --user enable dolphin-my.service
+systemctl --user start dolphin-my.service
+```
+
+### Option 2: Simple Scheduled Task
+
+```python
+from services.service_base import run_scheduled
+
+def my_task():
+    print("Running...")
+
+run_scheduled(my_task, interval_seconds=60, name='my-task')
+```
+
+## 📊 Features
+
+### Automatic
+- **Restart on crash**: Services auto-restart with backoff
+- **Health checks**: Built-in monitoring
+- **Structured logging**: JSON to systemd journal
+- **Resource limits**: Memory/CPU quotas
+- **Graceful shutdown**: SIGTERM handling
+
+### Retry Logic (Tenacity)
+```python
+@ServiceBase.retry_with_backoff
+async def fetch_data(self):
+    # Automatically retries with exponential backoff
+    pass
+```
+
+### Health Check Endpoint
+Services expose health via Hazelcast or file:
+```python
+async def health_check(self) -> bool:
+    return self.last_update > time.time() - 2.0
+```
+
+## 📝 Logging
+
+All services log structured JSON:
+```json
+{
+  "timestamp": "2024-03-25T15:30:00",
+  "level": "INFO",
+  "service": "exf",
+  "message": "Indicators updated"
+}
+```
+
+View logs:
+```bash
+# All services
+journalctl --user -f
+
+# Specific service
+journalctl --user -u dolphin-exf -f
+```
+
+## 🔍 Monitoring
+
+```bash
+# Service status
+systemctl --user status
+
+# Resource usage
+systemctl --user show dolphin-exf --property=MemoryCurrent,CPUUsageNSec
+
+# Recent failures
+systemctl --user --failed
+```
+
+## 🛠️ Troubleshooting
+
+| Issue | Solution |
+|-------|----------|
+| Service won't start | Check `journalctl --user -u dolphin-exf` |
+| High memory usage | Adjust `MemoryMax=` in .service file |
+| Restart loop | Check exit code: `systemctl --user status exf` |
+| Logs not showing | Ensure `StandardOutput=journal` |
+| Permission denied | Service files must be in `~/.config/systemd/user/` |
+
+## 🔄 Service Dependencies
+
+```
+exf -> hazelcast
+ob  -> hazelcast, exf
+watchdog -> hazelcast, exf, ob
+mc -> hazelcast (timer-triggered)
+```
+
+Configured via `After=` and `Wants=` in service files.