initial: import DOLPHIN baseline 2026-04-21 from dolphinng5_predict working tree
Includes core prod + GREEN/BLUE subsystems: - prod/ (BLUE harness, configs, scripts, docs) - nautilus_dolphin/ (GREEN Nautilus-native impl + dvae/ preserved) - adaptive_exit/ (AEM engine + models/bucket_assignments.pkl) - Observability/ (EsoF advisor, TUI, dashboards) - external_factors/ (EsoF producer) - mc_forewarning_qlabs_fork/ (MC regime/envelope) Excludes runtime caches, logs, backups, and reproducible artifacts per .gitignore.
This commit is contained in:
hjnormey
370
nautilus_dolphin/run_mc_envelope.py
Executable file
370
nautilus_dolphin/run_mc_envelope.py
Executable file
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"""
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Monte Carlo Envelope Mapper CLI
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===============================
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Command-line interface for running Monte Carlo envelope mapping
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of the Nautilus-Dolphin trading system.
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Usage:
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode run --stage 1 --n-samples 500
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode train --output-dir mc_results/
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode assess --assess my_config.json
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Reference: MONTE_CARLO_SYSTEM_ENVELOPE_SPEC.md Section 11
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"""
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import argparse
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import json
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import sys
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from pathlib import Path
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# Add parent to path for imports
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sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent))
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def create_parser() -> argparse.ArgumentParser:
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"""Create argument parser."""
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parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
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description="Monte Carlo System Envelope Mapper for DOLPHIN NG",
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formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter,
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epilog="""
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Examples:
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# Run full envelope mapping
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode run --n-samples 500 --n-workers 7
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# Train ML models on completed results
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode train
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# Assess a configuration file
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode assess --assess config.json
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# Generate summary report
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python run_mc_envelope.py --mode report
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"""
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--mode',
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choices=['sample', 'validate', 'run', 'train', 'assess', 'report'],
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default='run',
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help='Operation mode (default: run)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--n-samples',
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type=int,
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default=500,
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help='Samples per switch vector (default: 500)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--n-workers',
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type=int,
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default=-1,
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help='Parallel workers (-1 for auto, default: auto)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--batch-size',
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type=int,
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default=1000,
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help='Trials per batch file (default: 1000)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--output-dir',
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type=str,
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default='mc_results',
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help='Results directory (default: mc_results/)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--stage',
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type=int,
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choices=[1, 2],
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default=1,
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help='Stage: 1=reduced, 2=full (default: 1)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--seed',
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type=int,
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default=42,
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help='Master RNG seed (default: 42)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--config',
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type=str,
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help='JSON config file for parameter overrides'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--resume',
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action='store_true',
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help='Resume from existing results'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--assess',
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type=str,
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help='JSON file with config to assess (for mode=assess)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--max-trials',
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type=int,
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help='Maximum total trials (for testing)'
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)
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parser.add_argument(
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'--quiet',
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action='store_true',
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help='Reduce output verbosity'
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)
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return parser
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def cmd_sample(args):
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"""Sample configurations only."""
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from mc import MCSampler
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print("="*70)
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print("MONTE CARLO CONFIGURATION SAMPLER")
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print("="*70)
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sampler = MCSampler(base_seed=args.seed)
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print(f"\nGenerating trials (n_samples_per_switch={args.n_samples})...")
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trials = sampler.generate_trials(
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n_samples_per_switch=args.n_samples,
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max_trials=args.max_trials
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)
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# Save
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output_path = Path(args.output_dir) / "manifests" / "all_configs.json"
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sampler.save_trials(trials, output_path)
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print(f"\n[OK] Generated and saved {len(trials)} configurations")
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return 0
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def cmd_validate(args):
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"""Validate configurations."""
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from mc import MCSampler, MCValidator
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print("="*70)
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print("MONTE CARLO CONFIGURATION VALIDATOR")
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print("="*70)
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# Load configurations
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config_path = Path(args.output_dir) / "manifests" / "all_configs.json"
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if not config_path.exists():
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print(f"[ERROR] Configurations not found: {config_path}")
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print("Run with --mode sample first")
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return 1
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sampler = MCSampler()
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trials = sampler.load_trials(config_path)
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print(f"\nValidating {len(trials)} configurations...")
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validator = MCValidator(verbose=not args.quiet)
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results = validator.validate_batch(trials)
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# Stats
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stats = validator.get_validity_stats(results)
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print(f"\n{'='*70}")
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print("VALIDATION RESULTS")
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print(f"{'='*70}")
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print(f"Total: {stats['total']}")
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print(f"Valid: {stats['valid']} ({stats['validity_rate']*100:.1f}%)")
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print(f"Rejected V1 (range): {stats.get('rejected_v1', 0)}")
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print(f"Rejected V2 (constraints): {stats.get('rejected_v2', 0)}")
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print(f"Rejected V3 (cross-group): {stats.get('rejected_v3', 0)}")
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print(f"Rejected V4 (degenerate): {stats.get('rejected_v4', 0)}")
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# Save validation results
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output_path = Path(args.output_dir) / "manifests" / "validation_results.json"
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with open(output_path, 'w') as f:
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json.dump([r.to_dict() for r in results], f, indent=2)
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print(f"\n[OK] Validation results saved: {output_path}")
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return 0
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def cmd_run(args):
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"""Run full envelope mapping."""
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from mc import MCRunner
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print("="*70)
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print("MONTE CARLO ENVELOPE MAPPER")
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print("="*70)
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print(f"Mode: {'Stage 1 (reduced)' if args.stage == 1 else 'Stage 2 (full)'}")
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print(f"Samples per switch: {args.n_samples}")
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print(f"Workers: {args.n_workers if args.n_workers > 0 else 'auto'}")
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print(f"Output: {args.output_dir}")
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print(f"Seed: {args.seed}")
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print(f"Resume: {args.resume}")
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print("="*70)
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runner = MCRunner(
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output_dir=args.output_dir,
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n_workers=args.n_workers,
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batch_size=args.batch_size,
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base_seed=args.seed,
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verbose=not args.quiet
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)
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stats = runner.run_envelope_mapping(
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n_samples_per_switch=args.n_samples,
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max_trials=args.max_trials,
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resume=args.resume
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)
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# Save stats
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stats_path = Path(args.output_dir) / "run_stats.json"
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with open(stats_path, 'w') as f:
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json.dump(stats, f, indent=2, default=str)
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print(f"\n[OK] Run complete. Stats saved: {stats_path}")
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return 0
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def cmd_train(args):
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"""Train ML models."""
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from mc import MCML
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print("="*70)
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print("MONTE CARLO ML TRAINER")
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print("="*70)
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ml = MCML(output_dir=args.output_dir)
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try:
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results = ml.train_all_models()
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print("\n[OK] Training complete")
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return 0
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"\n[ERROR] Training failed: {e}")
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import traceback
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traceback.print_exc()
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return 1
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def cmd_assess(args):
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"""Assess a configuration."""
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from mc import DolphinForewarner, MCTrialConfig
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if not args.assess:
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print("[ERROR] --assess flag required with path to config JSON")
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return 1
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config_path = Path(args.assess)
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if not config_path.exists():
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print(f"[ERROR] Config file not found: {config_path}")
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return 1
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print("="*70)
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print("DOLPHIN FOREWARNING ASSESSMENT")
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print("="*70)
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# Load config
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with open(config_path, 'r') as f:
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config_dict = json.load(f)
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# Create forewarner
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forewarner = DolphinForewarner(models_dir=f"{args.output_dir}/models")
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# Assess
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if 'trial_id' in config_dict:
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config = MCTrialConfig.from_dict(config_dict)
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else:
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# Assume flat config
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config = MCTrialConfig(**config_dict)
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report = forewarner.assess(config)
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# Print report
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print(f"\nConfiguration:")
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print(f" vel_div_threshold: {config.vel_div_threshold}")
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print(f" max_leverage: {config.max_leverage}")
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print(f" fraction: {config.fraction}")
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print(f"\nPredictions:")
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print(f" ROI: {report.predicted_roi:.2f}%")
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print(f" Max DD: {report.predicted_max_dd:.2f}%")
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print(f" Champion probability: {report.champion_probability:.1%}")
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print(f" Catastrophic probability: {report.catastrophic_probability:.1%}")
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print(f" Envelope score: {report.envelope_score:.2f}")
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print(f"\nWarnings:")
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if report.warnings:
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for w in report.warnings:
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print(f" ! {w}")
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else:
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print(" (none)")
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# Save report
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report_path = Path(args.output_dir) / "forewarning_report.json"
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with open(report_path, 'w') as f:
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json.dump(report.to_dict(), f, indent=2, default=str)
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print(f"\n[OK] Report saved: {report_path}")
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return 0
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def cmd_report(args):
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"""Generate summary report."""
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from mc import MCRunner
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print("="*70)
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print("MONTE CARLO REPORT GENERATOR")
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print("="*70)
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runner = MCRunner(output_dir=args.output_dir)
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report = runner.generate_report(
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output_path=f"{args.output_dir}/envelope_report.md"
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)
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print(report)
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return 0
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def main():
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"""Main entry point."""
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parser = create_parser()
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args = parser.parse_args()
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# Dispatch
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try:
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if args.mode == 'sample':
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return cmd_sample(args)
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elif args.mode == 'validate':
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return cmd_validate(args)
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elif args.mode == 'run':
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return cmd_run(args)
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elif args.mode == 'train':
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return cmd_train(args)
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elif args.mode == 'assess':
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return cmd_assess(args)
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elif args.mode == 'report':
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return cmd_report(args)
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else:
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print(f"[ERROR] Unknown mode: {args.mode}")
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return 1
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except KeyboardInterrupt:
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print("\n\n[INTERRUPTED] Stopping...")
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return 130
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"\n[ERROR] {e}")
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import traceback
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traceback.print_exc()
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return 1
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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sys.exit(main())
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